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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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Wow. The ECMWF has 0.5" in 3 hours in Larimer County at 06z Tuesday. It shows QPF of 1.3" or more in 12 hours for the Larimer County mountains. The GFS runs have been hopping around. Some runs of the GFS have 1.0" of QPF for me, others have near zero to 0.3".

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The GFS still has a large amount of snow for Laramie, Weld, Cheyenne and Laramie for this storm.  I'm not sure I'm ready to see that much white. Bring it on if it busts some of the drought!  The 12z NAM shows a major snowstorm for eastern Wyoming, all the way up to Montana. This seems to be out of touch with reality.

 

I am looking at the ECMWF precip on http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap 

(switch to model data, choose ECMWF)

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The reason the GFS is showing so much snow for the Front Range cities is because the 500mb takes on a bit of an east-west orientation while it is in southern Colorado. Also, there seems to be a 700-850mb cold air damming feature predicted, such that our areas are below 32 some time around the onset of precipitation, and stay that way.

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The reason the GFS is showing so much snow for the Front Range cities is because the 500mb takes on a bit of an east-west orientation while it is in southern Colorado. Also, there seems to be a 700-850mb cold air damming feature predicted, such that our areas are below 32 some time around the onset of precipitation, and stay that way.

It's always a tough call before the S/W gets onshore. Looks like a decent event at least for the front range cities with the potential for something bigger if that storm is less progressive.

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The NAM, 4km NAM, and WPC (formerly HPC) are showing higher chances for over 12" of snow in eastern Wyoming now. It still could be a big one for my county. We would like as much snow as we can get at RMNP and the Medicine Bow ranges, for summer water.

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Any thoughts for my area on the Wasatch Front in Provo?

 

I see the NWS has a high wind watch for me but these downslope wind events almost never verify here. The only thing that may help is that normally springtime makes it easier for the winds to mix down convectively.

 

So strong NW winds as the surface low passes to the south with mod-heavy rain followed by possibly snow depending on how quick the cold air can move in but before it dries things out too much. :popcorn:

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Maybe I'm glad I don't have to forecast for a living. Seems like there must be 1 or 2 variables that are right on the hairy edge that must be leading to such divergent forecasts.  Strength of jet stream and how much the upper low consequently digs south must be 1 of them. It looks like the most energetic part of the jet is still offshore in the Pacific. Do the models have trouble capturing data because of that?

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The north winds already came through here at 4:00. The winds are pretty gusty. All weather elements are colliding on Fort Collins now.

 

 

Always amazing to watch the temp drop on the front range. I start out at 36f I can't get down to 32f, but in Ft Collins it goes from 60- 30 in 3 hrs.

 

An incredible temp contrast sets up across Nebraska, have to see if that enhances snowfall there.

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Rock Springs, WY. Nearly a hurricane with snow

 

KRKS 090429Z AUTO 06046G59KT 1/2SM FZFG BLSN VV010 M09/M12 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 06059/0429

KRKS 090213Z AUTO 06046G60KT 1 1/4SM -SN OVC017 M07/M11 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 05060/0212 P0000

 

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Highs are 40 degrees off the average. Pretty incredible to see that kind of cold during the day in almost mid April. I know big April winter storms aren't that uncommon in the mountain west, but how unprecedented are these kind of daytime temps?

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Highs are 40 degrees off the average. Pretty incredible to see that kind of cold during the day in almost mid April. I know big April winter storms aren't that uncommon in the mountain west, but how unprecedented are these kind of daytime temps?

Welp, when you consider the old record low max was 27, and today the max was 24 (at midnight... max during the day at DIA was 16), that's pretty uncommon. Given the non-magnitude of the snow most places, the cold should be much bigger news. Then again, you don't have to plow cold.

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