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First Week of March Nor'Easter


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#71
ago4snow

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I was surprised to see some of the language used over at Accuweather concerning the storm potential next week. A few quotes from an article written this morning by Alex Sosnowski:
 
“A wintry system that will make a cross-country tour beginning this weekend has the potential to develop into a powerful, damaging and very disruptive storm along the East Coast next week.” He also stated “Once the storm reaches the Atlantic coast Wednesday into Thursday (March 6-7), conditions at most levels in the nearby atmosphere and well away from the storm throughout North America will favor explosive development. At this point, the storm could become a real monster. While being too cold and stopping shy of becoming a tropical system, it could pack the punch like one with serious impacts to lives, property and travel plans.
According to Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "There may be similarities to a storm which affected much of the same area around March 6, 1962."
 
Seems like a pretty daring statement five days out. Any thoughts from our mets.


#72
tcutter

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I was surprised to see some of the language used over at Accuweather concerning the storm potential next week. A few quotes from an article written this morning by Alex Sosnowski:
 
“A wintry system that will make a cross-country tour beginning this weekend has the potential to develop into a powerful, damaging and very disruptive storm along the East Coast next week.” He also stated “Once the storm reaches the Atlantic coast Wednesday into Thursday (March 6-7), conditions at most levels in the nearby atmosphere and well away from the storm throughout North America will favor explosive development. At this point, the storm could become a real monster. While being too cold and stopping shy of becoming a tropical system, it could pack the punch like one with serious impacts to lives, property and travel plans.
According to Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "There may be similarities to a storm which affected much of the same area around March 6, 1962."
 
Seems like a pretty daring statement five days out. Any thoughts from our mets.

 

 

 

 

i respect elliot abrams and usually he does not call for snow unless he's pretty darn certain that it's going to happen......but i usually hear him on kyw1060....not sure if he has to "market" this storm over the website..........fyi.....here is the link to 1962

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia....y_Storm_of_1962

 

 

http://www.pressofat...1871e3ce6c.html



#73
Weatherguy701

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Well, it's good to highlight potential but my biggest concern is temps and not precip.



#74
RowanBrandon

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It's coming north on the GFS. The Southeast ridge seems to be more defined and further west, forcing it to go up over the top of it.



#75
famartin

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i respect elliot abrams and usually he does not call for snow unless he's pretty darn certain that it's going to happen......but i usually hear him on kyw1060....not sure if he has to "market" this storm over the website..........fyi.....here is the link to 1962

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia....y_Storm_of_1962

Here are some totals from that storm:

 

ABE:  0.48" liquid, 3.3" snow

RDG:  0.74" liquid, 4.0" snow

TTN:  0.93" liquid, 3.7" snow

PHL:  0.74" liquid, 6.8" snow

ILG:  0.77" liquid, 4.3" snow

ACY:  2.22" liquid, 3.6" snow



#76
tombo82685

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It's coming north on the GFS. The Southeast ridge seems to be more defined and further west, forcing it to go up over the top of it.

that plays a little role in it, but the main issue is the confluence is still to far south and won't allow it to gain latitude. Need that confluence to shift futher east and allow that ULL to traverse further north. 



#77
iceman56

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i respect elliot abrams and usually he does not call for snow unless he's pretty darn certain that it's going to happen......but i usually hear him on kyw1060....not sure if he has to "market" this storm over the website..........fyi.....here is the link to 1962

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia....y_Storm_of_1962

 

 

http://www.pressofat...1871e3ce6c.html

Even today you can see the streets laid out for the planned development on Assateague Island.   This storm

levelled everything standing and forced cancellation of the development.



#78
RowanBrandon

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Damn. Still can't get it up here on the GFS.



#79
tcutter

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Damn. Still can't get it up here on the GFS.

 

 

 

this is one of those times where you wish/hope that some sort of "SE bias" on the GFS actually exists           



#80
chubbs

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GFS shifted a little north continuing trend of last couple of runs. Getting close to last nights Euro.



#81
famartin

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GFS shifted a little north continuing trend of last couple of runs. Getting close to last nights Euro.

The 12Z GFS surface low track is almost identical to the 0Z EC... at least where it counts.  EC stalls it where the GFS doesn't but for this region it doesn't matter (except from a coastal standpoint).



#82
chubbs

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We've lost the phasing near the coast that the better gfs/euro runs had.



#83
Mitchell Gaines

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GEM back north again. Hard to buy into that Chicago gets heavy precip and the storm tracks to our south. Don't think I've ever seen that. 



#84
chubbs

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GEM back north again. Hard to buy into that Chicago gets heavy precip and the storm tracks to our south. Don't think I've ever seen that. 

 

A little slower which allows convergence to relax and storm to expand to NE. 



#85
famartin

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Hard to buy into that Chicago gets heavy precip and the storm tracks to our south. Don't think I've ever seen that. 

Its definitely happened, depending on your definition of "heavy precip".  March 9-10 1999 comes to mind.



#86
chubbs

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ukie really suppressed. Further S than last night.



#87
HM

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The GEFS are substantially further north than the operational and it isn't just a fluke couple of members. They would become more concerning for our shore areas, most notably.

There is a fine line here between the north trend and the blocking 50-50/Quebec High. This likely puts someone in our region on the fringe and the fringe does NOT work for getting good snow accumulation.

#88
Highzenberg

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HM, I saw you post in another thread that you were happy the models lost that northern lobe over the lakes that the GFS was phasing yesterday. While its true without it forecasting becomes easier, but I am surprised you werent rooting that on because with that the storm could have been something special ya know. 



#89
Highzenberg

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The GEFS are substantially further north than the operational and it isn't just a fluke couple of members. They would become more concerning for our shore areas, most notably.

There is a fine line here between the north trend and the blocking 50-50/Quebec High. This likely puts someone in our region on the fringe and the fringe does NOT work for getting good snow accumulation.

 

Yep, just because models give our area .1-.4 we would need to be in the heavy stuff to get it to accumulate, and right now with no phasing this looks unlikely. Well, winter has been a fun ride. I'm happy I took the trip to NE cause my eyes would have been shutout if I hadn't lol. 



#90
chubbs

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Here are some totals from that storm:

 

ABE:  0.48" liquid, 3.3" snow

RDG:  0.74" liquid, 4.0" snow

TTN:  0.93" liquid, 3.7" snow

PHL:  0.74" liquid, 6.8" snow

ILG:  0.77" liquid, 4.3" snow

ACY:  2.22" liquid, 3.6" snow

 

Remember that storm well. Heavy wet snow in Delco with no problem accumulating during daytime. Started as rain the day before.



#91
chubbs

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3-4 days out, modeling for our area is similar to 12/18/09 and 2/5/10 with convergence keeping heavy precip just to the south.



#92
famartin

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3-4 days out, modeling for our area is similar to 12/18/09 and 2/5/10 with convergence keeping heavy precip just to the south.

I don't have anything saved from 12/18/09, but I do have a few things from 2/5/10 and at least some runs of the GFS did bullseye the Mason/Dixon 4 days before.



#93
phlwx

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For those who care about the Euro the nudge to the north was minimal and was mostly with precip shield. It was weaker though...and that's been a bit of a trend in modeling...EC barely brings it below 1000. 



#94
phlwx

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let's also knock out the 12/19/09 and 2/5/10 comparisons now.  There is no southern energy in this storm...whole different setup.



#95
famartin

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The GEFS are substantially further north than the operational and it isn't just a fluke couple of members.

They did trend south though.  0Z had almost an inch up to TTN while 12Z has a half inch.



#96
famartin

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0Z

00zgfsensemblep72168.gif

 

 

12Z

 

Attached Images

  • 12zgfsensemblep72156.gif


#97
chubbs

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I don't have anything saved from 12/18/09, but I do have a few things from 2/5/10 and at least some runs of the GFS did bullseye the Mason/Dixon 4 days before.

 After checking to refresh my memory, you are right about 2/5/10 it was more a case of QPF increasing in our area than a shift to the N. There was a N shift though in 12/09. My only point is that this could easily wiggle a  little N in next few days



#98
tombo82685

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euro ens mean gets .5 up to phl.



#99
famartin

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euro ens mean gets .5 up to phl.

How's that compare with 0Z?



#100
tombo82685

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How's that compare with 0Z?

not sure, i just saw it in another forum. But from what i read the mean ticked nw



#101
chubbs

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not sure, i just saw it in another forum. But from what i read the mean ticked nw

 How does that compare to Op run



#102
anthonyweather

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 How does that compare to Op run

Attached Images

  • EUROPER.jpg


#103
PhillyBlizzard17

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tonight 00z euro n GFS do not need to come that far north to get philly in on the action. When the energy gets sampled i believe we will see a different solution than currently modeled. Not a massive change but enough to get some decent qpf to Trenton and maybe further north.



#104
tombo82685

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 How does that compare to Op run

the operational had about .25 or so in phl



#105
tombo82685

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tonight 00z euro n GFS do not need to come that far north to get philly in on the action. When the energy gets sampled i believe we will see a different solution than currently modeled. Not a massive change but enough to get some decent qpf to Trenton and maybe further north.

imho the storm has nothing to do with it. It all comes down to how strong that confluence is. You need that to lift out some, if not areas further south get it.






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