IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah i'll take that please Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My god. Can long island even survive something like that after Sandy? 60mph+ winds and 20"+ of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 06z NAM Snow Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdamobile Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Dsnowx53 question for you.. This run isn't to much different than the last one qpf wise is it. Just shaved some off of eastern pa but if a band setup there it's back to the 0z no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 06z NAM Snow Map Christ. Look at the boston area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Christ. Look at the boston area Total screw job for central LI But seriously I hope nobody expects these numbers. Euro qpf is probably the right way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That freaking map shows the greater part of the northeast into canada getting 24"+ with 40" in MA. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 how much of that would be rain though?? looks like temps crash across LI by around 18hr (00z)... not complaining though, even with half the QPF we're still talking 12"+!! Probably half. But yeah, half being rain and we still probably have 1.75" of QPF as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Dsnowx53 question for you.. This run isn't to much different than the last one qpf wise is it. Just shaved some off of eastern pa but if a band setup there it's back to the 0z no? Well it shaved a decent amount off of E PA. The cutoff was pretty sharp to begin with, and it seemed pretty clear to me that the 00z NAM was too far west. The NAM seemed to shift to the other guidance where most of the banding stays east of E PA, though E PA still does okay. The heavy QPF was just as heavy, but it just shifted it east and expanded it northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro ensembles should be out soon...after that I can attempt at trying to fall asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 clown map really shows warmth in long island and nyc, contours are so tight,but it looks like only 6or 7 inches for southern nyc and li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If that Nam snow map is correct then most of L.I. is in the 10-12" range on over 3" of QPF. That's over 2"of rain. . I don't think that is possible or is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro ensembles should be out soon...after that I can attempt at trying to fall asleep. Same! Man I haven't stayed up all night for models since the Boxing Day Snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If that Nam snow map is correct then most of L.I. is in the 10-12" range on over 3" of QPF. That's over 2"of rain. . I don't think that is possible or is it? Probably not. But taken verbatim, it's probably half rain/sleet, half snow. Not sure how much I care about the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow! The 06Z NAM has has 20-30" of snow for Southern Westchester County and that's the warmest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Any updates for the Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It would be unprecedented to have a driving rainstorm followed by Blizzard conditions. The Lindsay Storm in 69 was forecast to be mostly a rain event, but after just a couple of hours of rain/mix it quickly went over to snow and amassed almost 20" IMBY in Brooklyn. The XMAS 2002 storm was mostly light rain and drizzle during the day that went over to a 5 hour wind driven onslaught of snow that accumulated around 8"...........But what is being depicted on the NAM would be historic...It will be fun to see how it all turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I have seen only one model map from the 1978 Blizzard, but I would imagine it would look something like the NAM the last couple of days if it were around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Same! Man I haven't stayed up all night for models since the Boxing Day Snowstorm... euro ensembles are similar to op. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS024.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS024.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Any updates for the Ensembles? Euro ensembles are a tick further west and wetter than the OP, but overall very similar. SLP is pretty much the exact same, but the precip shield was a tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 euro ensembles are similar to op. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS024.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS024.gif Yea maybe a tad warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Any updates for the Ensembles? The EURO ENS is the same, but 1 mB higher for the SLP at HR 24, but the 500 mB Closed Low is slightly S&W of the OP and a tad warmer, despite the 1038 mB HP (ENS) Vs. the 1037 mB HP (OP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I have seen only one model map from the 1978 Blizzard, but I would imagine it would look something like the NAM the last couple of days if it were around then. The Blizzard of 78 had Arctic Air in place. We had 12" on the front end and another 12" that Monday night as the storm stalled between Montauk and the Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This just has the look of something historic on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Question, How much do SST's really effect a system like this at this time of the year? Been looking into current SST's and it is -quite- warm still all the way through the southern tip of VA. Been follow current obvs and we're closing in on a 1000mb low that hasn't climbed past NC in latitude yet. 6 hour forecast has this sub 995 and not even at the Delmarva yet. If the storm ends undergoing a small dose of rapid cyclogenisis wouldn't we see a track closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I might be hallucinating but I swear I see a little spin feature down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Question, How much do SST's really effect a system like this at this time of the year? Been looking into current SST's and it is -quite- warm still all the way through the southern tip of VA. Been follow current obvs and we're closing in on a 1000mb low that hasn't climbed past NC in latitude yet. 6 hour forecast has this sub 995 and not even at the Delmarva yet. If the storm ends undergoing a small dose of rapid cyclogenisis wouldn't we see a track closer to the coast? Take a look at the radar, I think we might already be seeing it go under cyclogenesis, and it didn't even phase. I think you may be right, and right now a 00z NAM solution may turn out to be correct. Just look how strong it is already. The spin is starting to take shape and we're down to 1000mb about. When this thing phases...............KABOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I might be hallucinating but I swear I see a little spin feature down there You're not. It's clearly starting to warp around 2/3rds of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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