Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 First legit threat with cold air in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 First legit threat with cold air in place Seems like the dates are off. The threat to me looks more like 26/27... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That said, this threat looks legit. Probably the best threat in YEARS for area wide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This one will either give us a major storm or it will become a major screw job, only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 12z gfs bring the low into Pittsburgh. We start as snow/ice then go to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 12z gfs bring the low into Pittsburgh. We start as snow/ice then go to rain. I don't think this run is done... Two parter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 I don't think this run is done... Two parter? Yep . Another low runs up the front. Hr 168 light to mod snow for area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 We just miss the brunt of the 2nd low. End up with a mod snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We just miss the brunt of the 2nd low. End up with a mod snow event Man. So much potential here.... Only 28 more run cycles to go through. Amazing that this could be another big weekend storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well it transfers the energy to the coast and we go to all snow for most of us. I don't think it will be much in the way of liquid either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We still might get a decent storm even if the first low ends up too far north, but hopefully this trends further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 12z GFS 1/25 - 1/27 Low #1: Ohio valley -> North of NYC Snow-to-rain Low #2: SC -> Cape Hatteras -> South then east of Benchmark All snow Good thing it's still days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The first storm for Friday is a significant snow event for areas NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The true potential is there for a widespread 12"+ with this type of system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 It's like 6" or more IMBY (NW NJ) with the first one --- then the second is a 'near miss'. Going to be a long week of tracking... For now, I'm going to enjoy the 50 degrees w/ sunshine while it lasts!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 PD2 was first proggeed to be two separate events, we know how that turned out. I see a lot of similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like we pick up a couple inches Friday night and Saturday morning before another cold blast comes in for Sunday but the bulk of what falls Friday/Friday evening is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 PD2 was first proggeed to be two separate events, we know how that turned out. I see a lot of similarities. Yeah but rain was never in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Its a day 6 threat , so I am not gona smash my keyboard after that run , but If I see that Tues I will not be happy . Thats not an exciting run for me , If you send a surface feature to PITT , you easily warm the BL . Then with a new trailing Vortex on its heels , by the time the secondary gets in motion , you can push the energy east and away from the coast and not up . If you dont bring the primary under the PV the outcome isnt favorable for the coast . but its 6 days out , so not worried " yet " . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Again, hard for me to get excited until I see a legit -NAO to keep this suppressed enough. Otherwise, too big a risk that it cuts. Cold air in place initially is pretty much meaningless if there's a big phase and it goes way amplified. A PV to our north isn't enough to stop a Lakes or inland cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That first event will be very snowy initially even for the coast if it does happen, that sort of air mass is not going to be in a hurry to get kicked out and we'd have massive overrunning with that sort of high exiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 There's nothing wrong with what he posted. Cold air is meaningless if a low tracks up through Pittsburgh. Interior could stay snow or have an ice storm but the coast will easily turn to rain. Will it happen? who knows. Could it happen? Of courseThe NYC forum covers more than just the coast. The low is never going to push a PV out of the way. It's moving out and needs blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looking at the GFS at 500mb that setup appears funny, I know the NOGAPS and one other model also hinted at this being a 2 part event but I have a feeling this may just be one storm...either a weak overrunning wave or a big monster redeveloper...I'm not so sure I believe the 2 part event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Can someone w/ more knowledge than me explain how the first event could influence the possible second storm coming up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That first event will be very snowy initially even for the coast if it does happen, that sort of air mass is not going to be in a hurry to get kicked out and we'd have massive overrunning with that sort of high exiting. I agree , I just didnt like the idea of a secondary having to come to the rescue , I would tend to think you run the surface feature from the Ohio valley East and under . This situations sometimes show up as ice storms in places because that the low level cold air is so dense and doesnt get displaced easily . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looking at the GFS at 500mb that setup appears funny, I know the NOGAPS and one other model also hinted at this being a 2 part event but I have a feeling this may just be one storm...either a weak overrunning wave or a big monster redeveloper...I'm not so sure I believe the 2 part event. I thought about that, but it seems like the first wave is moving to fast and sort of 'separates' from the moisture down South. If they were to combine into one storm, that could be something else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I guarantee you'll be the first poster crying "how could this happen??!!?" if this becomes an interior event. Ummm since I live in the interior that won't happen. I still have snow on the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The CMC is showing a very a very warm storm is it possible for all that cold air to scoot out that fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I definitely do not like the NOGAPS and Canadian being so amped and going with a strong cutter...we probably don't want to lose the Euro right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Interested in seeing the euro after seeing the foreign models cut it (The first wave atleast). CMC at this range is unreliable, as well as the nogaps, they can sometimes not even be in the same ballpark as to what will happen eventually. The UKMET looking bad worries me at this range though so let's see what the euro does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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