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am19psu

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Latest paraphrased thoughts from Steve at NJ PA weather - seems to echo JBs concerns about this set up for tomorrow....Steve says to say this forecast is complicated is an understatement the reason he gives include:

- The convection has been significantly strong along the Gulf Coast than forecasted by model guidance.

- Leading to a surface low further to the south than expected

- Significant cold air damning has been established along the coast with the 1030 MB high over Ontario

- Of most concern is the wet bulb temps are down to the mid 20′s to mid 30′s throughout the entire region ahead of this storm.

- All models continue the east and colder trends - and this is not a "small nudge"

-Guidance has shifted the track from eastern Virginia to the New Jersey coast and then towards southeastern Massachusetts which leads to higher snowfall potential over the interior and higher ice potential just northwest of the major cities

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@BigJoeBastardi: 06z GFS cools from previous run! HPC discussion points out errors in US models on temps.. Good job in catching it, but most didnt see.

@BigJoeBastardi: Once again snow falling SOUTH of DC at start of storm, well south of GFS idea on this from previous runs

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@BigJoeBastardi: 06z GFS cools from previous run! HPC discussion points out errors in US models on temps.. Good job in catching it, but most didnt see.

@BigJoeBastardi: Once again snow falling SOUTH of DC at start of storm, well south of GFS idea on this from previous runs

Has either mad a call yet? The tweets seem to be the same information that is provided on the board.

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Some evening musings as paraphrased from JB...

He mentions the edges of the precip are always a problem but his general idea on this storm was as good as he could get it from as far out as he did but he says - you can be the judge. He has no changes on the late week event as he again sees it as stronger than the models say, but the axis of snow with this one will be further south. Reiterates that this is not last winter with 3 winter events already in the books for many of us here in the east and despite some warmups on the horizon the cold will always be on the horizon to temper any warm up.

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on the 0z EC...

Wxrisk.com 4 to 8" of snow from eastern KY and southern OH into ALL of WVA...all of sw PA... all of southwest VA ( from Roanoke to Bristol) into the Shenandoah valley ... and a 4 to 8 inch band from DCA BWI northeast into Philly ...all of NJ NYC into western CT western mass.. and 8-12" over eastern CT RI eastern Mass including Boston and Cape Cod

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For once let's post a positive and a kudos to JB - his forecast of 50% of the US Covered with snow within 2 days of Christmas (a forecast he made last month) has verified with over 63% of the US snowcovered this AM!

Someone tell me how often this happens first and then I might.

Also, broken clock.

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Someone tell me how often this happens first and then I might.

Best I could find is this from Accu from a story back in 2010 that even references JB:

The average snow coverage by Christmas Day is usually between 25 and 35 percent, according to Meteorologist Heather Buchman.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/southeast-included-in-50-perce/43581

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Best I could find is this from Accu from a story back in 2010 that even references JB:

The average snow coverage by Christmas Day is usually between 25 and 35 percent, according to Meteorologist Heather Buchman.

http://www.accuweath...-50-perce/43581

So it looks like he makes the same forecast every winter :P

Thanks for finding that.

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Ummm ..... doesn't make sense. The 4" line means what exactly. Interpretations go!

Well, I am surprised he did not put a range in there. Other than that I think he expects the areas north and east of his 4" line to receive 4". (I am saying this WAY more graciously than DT would state it!), with a lollipop in the WV mountains and of course, the areas N & E of PA which would get the bonus from any intensifying coastal.

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