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The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread


WilkesboroDude

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Brett Anderson posted the other day that the newest update of the long-range Euro which goes through the coming Winter is indicating higher chances of a negative arctic oscillation. However, if the rest doesn't cooperate...I'm not sure what kind of impact that would have, aside from cold, dry spells.

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Hey, Michelle!  Can a banished person even have a thread?  Why not  give it to Griteater, if he wants it.  Not taking your Ritalin shouldn't qualify you for  a big thread with winter coming on.  T

 

Hmm....

 

I picked out 7 summers that matched this summers precipitation patterns and anomalies the best...

 

...A clear pattern also emerges and its not a good one for winter weather lovers especially with the expected +phase of the QBO which also statistically favors a neutral to positive winter AO/NAO phase. Likewise.. a positive QBO typically favors a +NAO/AO. The majority of these analogs also feature a +QBO. Just some data for you...don't shoot the messenger  :yikes:

 

 

OK, nothing personal against you WXeastern and your admittedly well-done research, but after that ray of sunshine you just dropped on the board, I think I'm going to go along with Tony's suggestion that we can this thread.   :D   Nothing good can come from this.  I need some winter hype...

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Hmm....

 

 

OK, nothing personal against you WXeastern and your admittedly well-done research, but after that ray of sunshine you just dropped on the board, I think I'm going to go along with Tony's suggestion that we can this thread.   :D   Nothing good can come from this.  I need some winter hype...

I have been reading through the board the it appears there is thought that the +QBO will change to negative for the fall/winter months. I was reading this in the Northeast forum a few days ago.

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Shut this thread down.... It's too early to do anything but wildly speculate for the most part.

A well regulated winter, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to open threads and speculate on the weather, shall not be infringed.

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Looks like 3 straight warm winters in a row. This could be the first time in my lifetime I've gone 3 straight winters with no accumulating snow.

Book it! They can't get a 5 day forecast right, so take this to the bank! I predict 1 measurable snow for Waycross and 5 measurable snow and or ice storms for GSP!
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Looks like 3 straight warm winters in a row. This could be the first time in my lifetime I've gone 3 straight winters with no accumulating snow.

 

Is this some sort of reverse psychology trick you're playing on yourself where if you set your expectations to zero and then you see some decent snowfall, your expectations will be exceeded? You know as well as I do we don't know if that will be true or not.

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Is this some sort of reverse psychology trick you're playing on yourself where if you set your expectations to zero and then you see some decent snowfall, your expectations will be exceeded? You know as well as I do we don't know if that will be true or not.

 

It's what you do when you live in a place where the yearly average snowfall is 0.89".

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Just finished my preliminary forecast for winter 2013-14. Its Posted on my blog here: http://torontowxcent...14-outlook.html

Nice write up.. I disagree because what you are predicitng isnt what i want to hear. It looks like you have valid reasoning but you are still going to be met with pitchforks and torches. How dare you come into our forum spewing this bs? I say good day to you sir.

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Nope.

Snow

Average Annual Snowfall, #269

Carrollton, GA

0.89 inches

http://www.usa.com/carrollton-ga-weather.htm

Didn't realize Atlanta averages less than 1 inch per winter. I say that because I get just as much if not more snow than the airport. I wonder if that 0.89 inches includes the foot of snow we had in 1993, the 6 inch snow we had in 1992 and several big snows we had in the 80s and the 5 inch snow in 2002.

edit: That same website shows that Marietta, GA gets on average 0.48" snow per year. About 1/2" inch less than Atlanta.

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Didn't realize Atlanta averages less than 1 inch per winter. I say that because I get just as much if not more snow than the airport. I wonder if that 0.89 inches includes the foot of snow we had in 1993, the 6 inch snow we had in 1992 and several big snows we had in the 80s and the 5 inch snow in 2002.

 

It's an average, so yes it does.

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