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November 26th-29th (Snow?) Storm


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#71
M4dRefluX

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I think the Euro is the outlier at this point. I'd be a lot more concerned with a really suppressed solution if it still has a couple days from now.


The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.

Great minds think alike. :lol:

#72
Hoosier

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Even the NOGAPS takes the surface low into Ohio.

#73
M4dRefluX

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Even the NOGAPS takes the surface low into Ohio.

Yep, the Euro is definitely an outlier.

I have a good feeling I'm going to be wasting my Thanksgiving away looking through models. :lol:

#74
Minnesota Meso

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The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.


IMO, I think he GEM has been the most consistent thus far, I'm just having a hard time buying it, the - PDO what it is, cold air will pour in before the storm gets wrapped up.

#75
Minnesota Meso

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I think even though the Euro is a outlier as compared to other models, I think it's solution is the correct one

#76
M4dRefluX

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I think even though the Euro is a outlier as compared to other models, I think it's solution is the correct one

Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January.

#77
wisconsinwx

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Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January.


Backing that up, looking at the GFS Ensembles, there are divergent solutions, with a few looking like the GEM and UKMET. Interestingly, those solutions do not diverge until about 96-102 hrs out, illustrating how much time we are likely going to have to wait until the model discrepancies resolve themselves.

#78
michsnowfreak

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It was just last year on Nov 29th that I picked up 6 inches, north of Lansing jack-potted the storm with 12 inches.

It was my only 3+ inch storm of the winter.

Jon

A measly 0.6" on the backedge of the storm last nov 29/30. Shocked you didnt get 3"+ on feb 10/11, had 4.9" imby.

#79
The_Global_Warmer

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Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January.





It's really not that cold. there are disjointed pockets of colder air moving South. But along the front, it's really not that cold at all. And it's also November 27th.
The average high is 49 low 33 in STL that day.

Look's like the models all handle the strength of the short wave much differently, the GEM and EURO are light years apart on the piece of energy and subsequent amplification.


The suppression would be even worse if the GFS solutions of the lead Northern stream piece of energy were more like a few days ago with a or without a strong system diving into the trough.


Posted Image

#80
The_Global_Warmer

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The Gem. GFS, and Euro, the scales are different, the Euro's depiction of the system wouldn't even show up on the first two maps.



5 Days out, talk about all over the place.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

#81
snowstormcanuck

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As tough as it is to bet against such a superior model, I'm pretty confident the non-storm scenario the EURO is depicting is wrong. Even its ensemble mean has a broad slp center around E PA. Not exactly a UKIE/GGEM solution, but enough to relegate the 0z OP EURO as a major outlier (unless you want to count a few of the GEFS members, which on account of their cold bias are always suppressed).

#82
Angrysummons

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Since this isn't phasing, I suspect a consensus will build this weekend as better sampling of the energy comes into play. That is one good thing about non-phased systems(outside the late January 2009 one, I still don't know what the models were thinking on that one lol).

#83
PatrickSumner

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From IWX:


UPR FLOW WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO ENERGY SET
TO MOVE SE AND EVENTUALLY HOOK NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUES WITH MODELS WITH ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH (NO PRECIP FOR THE AREA) VS GFS/GEMNH THAT BRING THE
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. GEMNH REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH PLACING BULK
OF SNOWFALL INTO WI/MI MUCH LIKE GFS DID A FEW DAYS AGO. GFS REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH BUT IN MIDDLE OF SOLUTIONS TO WARRANT USING AS A
COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT. CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS WOULD BE
FUTILE GIVEN THE NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH ENERGY NOT FULLY
SAMPLED IN UPPER AIR DATA AS OF YET. SUSPECT THAT WITH TIME...MODELS
WILL CONVERGE ON WHAT MAY EVOLVE INTO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MIX PRECIP MENTION KEPT MON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THEN ALL SNOW TUES NGT BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH.


#84
M4dRefluX

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People in Northern OH will love the 06z GFS

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#85
IWXwx

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People in Northern OH will love the 06z GFS

People in Northern IN aren't complaining either. Posted Image

Ahhhhhh....finally something to track. It doesn't look like anything major, but I have been waiting many months. Good luck to everyone in the region, someone should see an accumulating snow.

#86
Jonger1150

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Yep, the Euro is definitely an outlier.

I have a good feeling I'm going to be wasting my Thanksgiving away looking through models. :lol:


Every year for me.

Jon

#87
wisconsinwx

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I'm not sure if it means much given the off hour run, but the 6z GFS ensembles as a whole seem to be a bit NW, with more of them affecting the Western Great Lakes.

#88
michsnowfreak

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The 12z GFS ensemble mean is actually PERFECT for SE MI, but you know what an ensemble mean is....some too far NW (ie, rain), some good for nice snow, some suppressed...but at least a storm of some kind should impact someone in the region.

#89
snowstormcanuck

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12z EURO through 96 still looks like it's going to be fairly suppressed. Not even a kink in the mean 500mb flow. Still think it's wrong though.

#90
wxhstn74

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First Measurable Snow Of The Season Possible Tuesday After Flirting With Record Territory For Warm Thanksgivings!


http://weatherhistor...-of-season.html

#91
SpartyOn

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Loving the potentials for this region.

#92
isnice

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How can the GGEM and Euro be such complete opposites?

#93
wisconsinwx

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As much as I don't like it and think it is likely to be wrong, I may have to ride the Euro since it's the Euro.

#94
michsnowfreak

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Loving the potentials for this region.

I guess being in the middle is the best place to be 5 days out. Euro doesnt have much of a storm anyway, but what precip does fall is WAY WAY south of us. GGEM has a nice storm tracking NW of us giving us mostly rain. GFS gives us snow, with its ensembles showing everything from a nice snow, to rain, to dry with a suppressed storm (though most do show an appreciable storm). All you can do is wait and hope!

#95
wisconsinwx

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JB is riding the Euro's ideas on FB.

#96
jdrenken

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JB is riding the Euro's ideas on FB.


If the GFS showed a east coast system w/o support he would claim it echos Weatherbell forecast.

#97
blackrock

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I guess being in the middle is the best place to be 5 days out. Euro doesnt have much of a storm anyway, but what precip does fall is WAY WAY south of us. GGEM has a nice storm tracking NW of us giving us mostly rain. GFS gives us snow, with its ensembles showing everything from a nice snow, to rain, to dry with a suppressed storm (though most do show an appreciable storm). All you can do is wait and hope!


Lol! The models are SO useful..........

#98
wisconsinwx

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If the GFS showed a east coast system w/o support he would claim it echos Weatherbell forecast.


I know I was going to add fwiw because the Euro fits with his cold bias to begin with.

#99
SpartyOn

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JB is riding the Euro's ideas on FB.


Bustardi

#100
michsnowfreak

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JB is riding the model that has the best/coldest scenario for the east coast? I am absolutely SHOCKED!!! Bottom line, euro has the best track record but the least support. Best track record does not mean right 100% of the time (not close, actually). So I think until/if it gets more support...discount the euro!

#101
Thundersnow12

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Some of the 12z GFS ensembles are more like the GEM



#102
Thundersnow12

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LOT

NEXT WEEK...
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG FROM THE PAC NW
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MODERATE AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER PATTERN
THOUGH IT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE EJECTING EAST OR
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A COUPLE
SOMEWHAT CLUSTERED SOLUTIONS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON. THE
SOLUTION WITH MOST CONSENSUS WOULD BE FOR THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND GEM AS WELL
AS THE GEFS MEAN. LOOKING AT SPAGHETTI PLOTS...GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE LOW POSITIONS UP AND DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...THOUGH MORE FAVORING THE NORTH TRACK. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHILE EARLIER RUNS
OF THE GFS ALSO SHARED A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION. GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY
NIGHT.


#103
Brewers

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MKX

MODELS DIFFER IN HANDLING EVOLUTION OF 500 MB WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT
SURFACE DEVELOPMENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS FASTER ON GEMNH AND GFS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THEY ARE
FARTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF OR DGEX WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. CONSENSUS BLEND
CURRENTLY GIVES US ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW...NOT A SURPRISE GIVEN THE
FACT THAT THE GEMNH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY NORTH THE LAST TWO RUNS
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH AND DRY. BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON LATER RUNS AS SOME OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FEATURES THAT BRING HEAVY
NOVEMBER SNOW TO WISCONSIN ARE BEING REFLECTED IN SOME OF THE
MODELS
...EVEN THE ONES WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH SURFACE LOW SOLUTION.
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.



#104
snowstormcanuck

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Wow, the 12z EURO ensemble mean is now as flat as the OP. Even the UKIE has gone more sheared/suppressed, although not to the same extent. I'm thinking there are sampling issues with the s/w as it's currently still over the Pacific. The EURO has a distinct s/w at 72 hours but then it simply disappears in later frames. Whatever transpires, nice to be back to tracking.

#105
M4dRefluX

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18z GFS

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