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SPC modifying risk categories in 2013


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Remember, we're talking about wording for SEVERE weather. If its a squall line, but only isolated cells will produce severe weather, then isolated would be the way to go. However, if you are expecting a widespread derecho, then you'd want to go with that. Anyway, this is my thinking.

I like it. When I talk to my clients, I will usually say something like "scattered storms expected, with isolated severe" when such a situation arises.

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Remember, we're talking about wording for SEVERE weather. If its a squall line, but only isolated cells will produce severe weather, then isolated would be the way to go. However, if you are expecting a widespread derecho, then you'd want to go with that. Anyway, this is my thinking.

A few isolated supercells have much more destructive potential than a marginally severe squall line. The isolated, scattered, widespread wording doesn't quite catch that.

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Remember, we're talking about wording for SEVERE weather. If its a squall line, but only isolated cells will produce severe weather, then isolated would be the way to go. However, if you are expecting a widespread derecho, then you'd want to go with something higher. Anyway, this is my thinking.

I see your reasoning now, I like it.

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A few isolated supercells have much more destructive potential than a marginally severe squall line. The isolated, scattered, widespread wording doesn't quite catch that.

Also remember, I'm not proposing changing the current guideline of how to rate these, which is severe weather within a certain radius (I forget the mileage off-hand). If you are sure you are going to get destructive supercells within said radius, you would rate it high.

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Remember, we're talking about wording for SEVERE weather. If its a squall line, but only isolated cells will produce severe weather, then isolated would be the way to go. However, if you are expecting a widespread derecho, then you'd want to go with something higher. Anyway, this is my thinking.

I also like this better.

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Oh I know. Not that the public really needs to understand all the details, but that's where the media could do more to educate if they are going to use the graphics.

Totally agree with this. I don't see any reason to show these graphics to the public unless you spend a lot of time educating. Many TV mets couldn't tell you what they mean... yet are using them on TV.

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In my honest opinion, an "Enhanced Risk" sounds like something one step above a "High Risk"

It almost sounds like a variable risk that could be between any risk or above a high (although "extreme" tends to be the word that comes to mind when I think about above high), sort of in a similar way to hatching denoting potentially significant svr wx.

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I think it is clear from the discussion in this thread that the wording is confusing. To me, Moderate sounds less extreme than Enhanced, but at the same time, Enhanced sounds like it could mean "slightly more than marginal".

The best thing would probably be to take out Enhanced entirely and adjust the bars to be along the following categorisations:

Thunder

Marginal

Slight

Moderate

High

Extreme/Exceptional

Where a "Moderate Risk" could be part of the proposed "Enhanced Risk" area, while the new "High Risk" is lower than the previous definition for High.

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I think it is clear from the discussion in this thread that the wording is confusing. To me, Moderate sounds less extreme than Enhanced, but at the same time, Enhanced sounds like it could mean "slightly more than marginal".

The best thing would probably be to take out Enhanced entirely and adjust the bars to be along the following categorisations:

Thunder

Marginal

Slight

Moderate

High

Extreme/Exceptional

Where a "Moderate Risk" could be part of the proposed "Enhanced Risk" area, while the new "High Risk" is lower than the previous definition for High.

Slight and marginal seem to mean the same or might even be in reverse order in many people's minds.

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Its interesting to see some of the comments here. Most of the people I talked to at the meeting weren't exactly thrilled with the wording but thought it was a step in the right direction.

I agree. We really have to make sure the words convey their intended meaning and that people act accordingly.

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I would limit it to words that play up the fact that severe storms are more likely today than they are in any random afternoon popcorn scenario. Slight risk is a bad word and really needs to be eliminated altogether; Marginal is as bad as Slight. Moderate really isn't a great word either, since "moderation" implies "not too much, we're keeping it conservative." Enhanced or Elevated might do well as a lowest-risk-tier phrase. High ought to be the phrase for the middle tier, and the highest tier really needs to convey something apocalyptic.

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I would limit it to words that play up the fact that severe storms are more likely today than they are in any random afternoon popcorn scenario. Slight risk is a bad word and really needs to be eliminated altogether; Marginal is as bad as Slight. Moderate really isn't a great word either, since "moderation" implies "not too much, we're keeping it conservative." Enhanced or Elevated might do well as a lowest-risk-tier phrase. High ought to be the phrase for the middle tier, and the highest tier really needs to convey something apocalyptic.

You can't change high risk from what it is now. It's too much the vernacular in some parts of the country (such as where I live right now). If you start calling high risk something less than it is right now, people are going to get very confused.

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One of my first thoughts is that, with Marginal and Enhanced included now, they might be better off removing Slight Risk completely to avoid confusion. Just a quick thought based off a first look at things.

One of the problems is that the general public interprets these terms dramatically different than meteorologists or even weather hobbyists.

This! I remember in the midnight tornado outbreak here in June 2010 many friends and family seemed to downplay the threat because it was only a slight risk. Instead we get numerous strong tornadoes, such as the one F4 just east of Perrysburg and people were completely stunned. It seems like the word slight puts people's guard down instantly and as a student majoring in Emergency Management I can tell you that is the absolute worse thing the public will ever do

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  • 4 months later...
Did anything ever come of this?  I'm assuming we still have the traditional risk categories for 2013.

Seems that way. We're headed into prime severe weather season for most areas of the country, so I'd assume that the lack of anything about this sort of change on SPC's website thus far means we won't be seeing the new system for a while yet. They're http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/SELhazard/'>tweaking the format of weather watch bulletins a bit starting in mid-April and the announcement about that has been up for a couple of months now, for example.

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I think maybe it's time to be a bit more descriptive, and actually say what these terms mean. In layman's terms, this is how I interpret the categories.

 

That's what the convective outlook text is for...

 

Usually with high risks or moderate risks, you'll see a header reading something along the lines of...

 

"A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS X LOCATIONS."

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