andyhb Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Damn, that's one of the more impressive Prairie tornadoes I've seen since Elie/Pipestone in 2007. Assuming this article is related to the same tornado, appears to have caused some significant damage as well: http://www.windsorstar.com/news/Photos+Family+farm+devastated+tornado/10004900/story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Another overnight heavy rain event for eastern Nebraska and western Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 500 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 TORNADO WATCH 411 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IAC003-007-011-031-039-045-051-053-057-087-095-097-099-101-103- 105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-135-139-153-157-159-163-173- 175-177-179-181-183-185-130500- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0411.140712T2200Z-140713T0500Z/ IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON CEDAR CLARKE CLINTON DAVIS DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY IOWA JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LEE LINN LOUISA LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE MUSCATINE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SCOTT TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE $$ TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 500 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 TORNADO WATCH 411 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-177-187-195-130500- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0411.140712T2200Z-140713T0500Z/ IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WARREN WHITESIDE $$ TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 500 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 TORNADO WATCH 411 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MOC001-005-045-075-079-081-129-147-171-197-199-211-227-130500- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0411.140712T2200Z-140713T0500Z/ MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATCHISON CLARK GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON MERCER NODAWAY PUTNAM SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SULLIVAN WORTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Bump. Hi everyone! Maryland to Fargo is going to be.... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Welcome to the red river valley....I am at NWS Grand Forks. You missed out on our chilly winter last year. Dan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Welcome to the red river valley....I am at NWS Grand Forks. You missed out on our chilly winter last year. Dan Yeah, well I was hoping this year for a bit of El Nino to perhaps make my first winter a bit milder, but... that's plan isn't working out too well at the moment. My reasoning to moving to Fargo is that I am starting graduate school at NDSU for Emergency Management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Bump. Hi everyone! Maryland to Fargo is going to be.... interesting... Welcome to the frozen tundra... I did my grad work in Grand Forks and now I'm in Bismarck. You'll be fine... My wife and I are southerners and we have gotten to where it's not too bad in the winter. And the summers are fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 00Z NAM is showing severe weather for eastern SD/ND and western MN on Saturday. But, the NAM is about 12 hours faster and 6 mb deeper than the GFS so I'm really doubting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Looks like a pretty impressive cold front coming next week. A little snow even possible in ND/MN? Crazy early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Certainly an anomalous airmass, GFS currently progging -15 to -20 2mT departures. Not totally sold on the snow yet, it is still early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 I'm guessing this is the best subforum for MN / adjacent S. plains of western Ontario? Winter weather model mayhem starts early this year! NAM has a much cooler BL than the GFS, leading to heavy wet snow rather than a steady soaking rain. T850s are perhaps slightly cooler on the NAM with a bit more polar-jet energy getting involved, but this discrepancy appears to be primarily a difference of precipitation rate / evaporative cooling. Yes I know these weenie snow maps are never quite right, but it's definitely a useful tool to visualize some fundamental model discrepancies when the differences are this obvious. If I had to make a forecast right now, I'd probably go 80% GFS / 20% NAM, with perhaps a localized slushy T-1/2" in far northeastern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 218 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2014 ...ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING IN THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD PREPARE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SDZ024-028-WYZ057-110430- /O.UPG.KUNR.WW.Y.0021.140911T0600Z-140912T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KUNR.WS.W.0009.140911T0300Z-140911T1800Z/ NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-WYOMING BLACK HILLS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEAD...DEADWOOD...HILL CITY... MT RUSHMORE...SUNDANCE...FOUR CORNERS 218 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT THURSDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. * MAIN HAZARD...4 TO 7 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * IMPACTS...WET HEAVY SNOW MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. RANCHERS AND OTHERS WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR THIS ABRUPT CHANGE TO WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Insanely early for this. Looks likely to be the earliest measurable snowfall for a lot of places in 20+ years...with a few places in the running for their earliest snowfall on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Picked up 1.07" of rain with the system last night. Had a low of 45 today. No reports of any snow in the arrowhead of MN today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Rapid City, SD recorded their earliest snowfall on record today. Previous earliest was 9/13/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted September 11, 2014 Author Share Posted September 11, 2014 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 926 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014 SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME ------ ----------------------- -- -------------- ------- 8.00 DOWNTOWN CUSTER SD CUSTER 0800 AM 7.00 MOUNT RUSHMORE SD PENNINGTON 0810 AM 7.00 1 ENE DOWNTOWN CUSTER SD CUSTER 0605 AM 6.00 5 S HILL CITY SD PENNINGTON 0815 AM 6.00 8 NW TERRY PEAK SD LAWRENCE 0750 AM 6.00 2 SSE DEERFIELD RESERVO SD PENNINGTON 0740 AM 5.00 5 ENE DOWNTOWN CUSTER SD CUSTER 0600 AM 5.00 JOHNSON SIDING SD PENNINGTON 0530 AM 4.50 HILL CITY SD PENNINGTON 0852 AM 4.00 1 ENE SUNDANCE WY CROOK 0800 AM 4.00 2 SSE DEERFIELD RESERVO SD PENNINGTON 0400 AM 3.00 7 SW DOWNTOWN RAPID CIT SD PENNINGTON 0800 AM 2.50 1 W DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0815 AM 2.00 6 E DEVILS TOWER JUNCTI WY CROOK 0842 AM 2.00 9 ENE DEVILS TOWER JUNC WY CROOK 0840 AM 2.00 ALADDIN WY CROOK 0835 AM 2.00 6 W BEULAH WY CROOK 0824 AM 2.00 5 W WHITEWOOD SD LAWRENCE 0820 AM 2.00 2 W DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH SD LAWRENCE 0815 AM 2.00 3 ESE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE WY CAMPBELL 0750 AM 2.00 4 S DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0600 AM 1.50 BEULAH WY CROOK 0855 AM 1.30 12 SW MOSKEE WY WESTON 0800 AM 1.00 FOUR CORNERS WY WESTON 0827 AM 1.00 1 N DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0815 AM 1.00 LEAD SD LAWRENCE 0745 AM 0.90 1 NW PIEDMONT SD MEADE 0730 AM 0.90 1 ESE DOWNTOWN RAPID CI SD PENNINGTON 0600 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKevinM Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I'll give this a bump. Looks like its time to start winter weather forecasting. Both NAM and GFS give a shot at some precip on Wednesday. For North Dakota, GFS seems to lean me towards mixed type precip whereas NAM pushes me toward more of the frozen variety during the daylight hours. Central MN for Wednesday evening/night could be interesting, particularly the I-35 corridor between Duluth and the Cities. Guess we'll see how things change throughout the runs today/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 I'll give this a bump. Looks like its time to start winter weather forecasting. Both NAM and GFS give a shot at some precip on Wednesday. For North Dakota, GFS seems to lean me towards mixed type precip whereas NAM pushes me toward more of the frozen variety during the daylight hours. Central MN for Wednesday evening/night could be interesting, particularly the I-35 corridor between Duluth and the Cities. Guess we'll see how things change throughout the runs today/tomorrow. FGF mentions 1-2" snow possible around the Grand Forks area. WPC has low prob of 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKevinM Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 SREF 21Z went for a 1.29" mean for the GFK area. Checked a few other locations to the ESE between US-2 and US-10 and I didn't see a mean higher than 2.4" (Park Rapids, MN). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 We got a coating here in Fargo. First non-trace snow of the year. Though that first trace was questionable, some (including me) thought it was actually seed pods blowing off the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yesterdays light snow event left a band of 2-4 inches of wet snow from Rolla ND through Rugby and Devils Lake ND then in-between Fargo and Grand Forks to just east of Detroit Lakes MN to between Wadena and Fergus Falls MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 12Z 11/07/14 model suite shifted north with the snow band for sun-tue...12Z euro nails a stripe of 10-12" from w mn thru the twin cities into wi. WPC day 3 snow probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 The 18z GFS-parallel features a lot of snow for MT, SD, and WY. The regular 18z GFS shows snow for northern Colorado too. Since it is on day 4, I am not so sure that northern Colorado will get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The GFS has been showing a major snowstorm/blizzard somewhere over ND/SD/Saskatchewan/Manitoba by Tues/Wed of next week for a few runs now. While the storm itself has been consistent, the location has been all over the place. The current 12z run would paint a widespread swath of 14-20 inches of snow over much of central ND. However, the ECMWF has been consistently further north and less intense. Will be watching this closely the next several days after an initial strong Clipper that will push through on Sunday. As is tradition in the northern Plains... we are seeing a bit of uptick in activity here as we transition to Spring. I do want to stress that there are still numerous questions at this range and uncertainty is very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panes and Portlets Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Decent event through the Devils Lake region into the RRV. Narrow band of 2-4 looks to have fallen. Mid way through the event GF upgraded to a WWA after initially issuing a SWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKevinM Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Tomorrow, a shortwave will pass through the region with an area of precipitation tracking from Dickenson, ND - Fargo, ND - then southest to the Twin Cities area, with the heaviest precip in the St. Cloud, MN area per the 12Z NAM. Point soundings suggest all snow north of the 540 thickness, with point soundings getting closer to a sleet/freezing RA/DZ event, but with the depth of the cold air and lack of good WAA aloft, looks to remain snow throughout. 1-3 inches likely the general snowfall amounts, with some localized higher amounts.I'm sick of winter, but at least the SPC has been able put out some marginal outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panes and Portlets Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 The season of the unphased wave continues. The mid week system has really been strung out and thus the QPF has been taking a beating. What could have been. Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panes and Portlets Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 GFS trying to sell on another shot of significant accumulating snow across the Northern Plains next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 GFS trying to sell on another shot of significant accumulating snow across the Northern Plains next week. Not quite as strong today, but still significant. The GEM is in fairly good agreement with a swath of 6-8 inch totals over central/southern ND and northern SD. The ECMWF is weaker and further south... but unlike last time, the ECM looks to be an outlier this go around. I'm still not banking on the track or the moisture, but I have a little bit more confidence in this storm system compared with the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panes and Portlets Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Not quite as strong today, but still significant. The GEM is in fairly good agreement with a swath of 6-8 inch totals over central/southern ND and northern SD. The ECMWF is weaker and further south... but unlike last time, the ECM looks to be an outlier this go around. I'm still not banking on the track or the moisture, but I have a little bit more confidence in this storm system compared with the last one. System is getting more and more sheared as we tick through the runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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