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Talking Winter 2012-2013


264 replies to this topic

#1
wederwarrior

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Saw a few winter forecasts popping up and thought it was about time.

Some say above average snowfall, some say torch... What say you?
When is our first real threat going to materialize? Is it the elusive december 5th? Or another Snowtober?

It is sure to be a roller coaster ride with many ups and downs, late nights waiting for the 0z Euro, and a lot of squinting/hallucinating for where the 540 line sets up.

Let the games begin. :snowing: :mapsnow: :snowman:

#2
Thunder Road

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http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820

Never too early indeed. :rolleyes:

When was the last time these people went with anything besides heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic?

Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy.

#3
tombo82685

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Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all.

#4
MGorse

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http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820

Never too early indeed. :rolleyes:

When was the last time these people went with anything besides heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic?

Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy.


:lmao:

#5
wederwarrior

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Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy.


So there is such thing as too cold and snowy?

Posted Image

The reasoning is based off of a weak el nino forecast.
Now, granted this plays to their subscription $

#6
phlwx

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http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820

Never too early indeed. :rolleyes:

When was the last time these people went with anything besides heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic?

Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy.


http://www.accuweath...-20112012/55890

their call last winter lol

(to be fair, a number of people were calling for a bad Lakes winter...that flopped badly)

#7
phlwx

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Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all.


not every el nino is a good el nino (see 94-95, 06-07) but your Miller A point is right.

#8
tombo82685

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not every el nino is a good el nino (see 94-95, 06-07) but your Miller A point is right.


yes i know, but statistically, i would like my chances of atleast normal or above snowfall wise with an el nino rather than a la nina. Their have been dud el nino yrs, 97-98 was another, but that was a powerhouse el nino which usually arent that good unless its west based. Then you have to take all the other factors like teleconnections and what not.

#9
phlwx

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^forgot the epic fail of 91-92 in there as well for "bad" Nino winters.

#10
easternsnowman

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not every el nino is a good el nino (see 94-95, 06-07) but your Miller A point is right.

They were both stronger than the coming el nino (forecasted). They both had cold snowy Feb.

#11
Quakertown needs snow

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Rob Guarino:

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=3853&Itemid=179

#12
dryslotted

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Rob Guarino:

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=3853&Itemid=179


let me guess, cold and snowy... :ee:


EDIT: yep...

#13
am19psu

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let me guess, cold and snowy... :ee:


EDIT: yep...

:lol:

#14
easternsnowman

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Accuweather is no worse than the cfs or any other governemnt forecasting svcs.

#15
am19psu

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Accuweather is no worse than the cfs or any other governemnt forecasting svcs.

I don't have the impression that Accuweather's forecasts are any more or less skillful than anyone else's at this lead time (which is to say, I haven't seen any public forecasts with any skill at this lead time). But their hype machine for a winter forecast made on Aug 15 is the megalolz.

#16
MGorse

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It sounds like I will finally get to use this bad boy this winter. ;)

Attached Images

  • NYS_Snowplow.jpg


#17
dryslotted

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I don't have the impression that Accuweather's forecasts are any more or less skillful than anyone else's at this lead time (which is to say, I haven't seen any public forecasts with any skill at this lead time). But their hype machine for a winter forecast made on Aug 15 is the megalolz.


That's what I have been struggling with. Even the October outlooks/forecasts for winter are a stretch and still prone to serious error, so why even bother coming out with this stuff in August? (I know the answer, but still...) I give these "forecasts" about as much credence as the farmer's almanac...

This feels similar to the notion that the stores bring out the Christmas displays/decorations earlier and earlier each year. Let's get to and enjoy fall for pete's sake!

#18
dryslotted

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It sounds like I will finally get to use this bad boy this winter. ;)


Can you clear a few fairways for Tony with thing? :rambo:

#19
MGorse

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Can you clear a few fairways for Tony with thing? :rambo:


Sure thing. :)

#20
famartin

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So there is such thing as too cold and snowy?

Posted Image

The reasoning is based off of a weak el nino forecast.
Now, granted this plays to their subscription $


Paul must've been thinking of me when he put in that sucker hole around Elko :lmao:

#21
Quakertown needs snow

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Paul must've been thinking of me when he put in that sucker hole around Elko :lmao:


i guess you will be traveling east a lot this winter ;)

#22
Snow88

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Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all.


I agree about Miller A's. Even up here, we usually get shafted by Miller B's. I love Miller A's. Everyone takes part in it.

#23
iceman56

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let me guess, cold and snowy... :ee:


EDIT: yep...

Nope, actually very close to normal around here which at this distance is the safest way to go.

#24
40/70 Benchmark

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Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all.

Weaker el Ninos produce mainly Miller Bs, as well....you want the mod-strong ones down there, to activate the s stream.

#25
dryslotted

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Nope, actually very close to normal around here which at this distance is the safest way to go.


He went with above average snowfall for Philly metro and the surrounding burbs. IIRC (if you have a link for it, and can show that I am recalling it incorrectly, by all means point it out), he said about the same thing last year, and we all know how that worked out. I don't agree that going with a "close to normal" call is the safest way to go. Personally, I think it's silly to even make a call in August, but I am interpreting this "for entertainment purposes only"...

#26
easternsnowman

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Ife we have a weak el nino like 2004-05 in which philly got 30 inches and burbs to the west got closer to 40 inches with average temps nobody would complain. Over 90% of the snow I had was from mid january to early march.

#27
40/70 Benchmark

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Ife we have a weak el nino like 2004-05 in which philly got 30 inches and burbs to the west got closer to 40 inches with average temps nobody would complain. Over 90% of the snow I had was from mid january to early march.

The cut-off in Miller Bs is usually btwn Phiilly and NYC....you guys got lucky in 2005, but there can also be seasons like 1977.

#28
tombo82685

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Weaker el Ninos produce mainly Miller Bs, as well....you want the mod-strong ones down there, to activate the s stream.


This is true, but the nino's have the miller A's while the nina's are all northern stream dominant usually. philly's highest avg snowfall wise out of the 6 enso states is weak el nino around 28 inches. While, mod and strong nina's are the least 13-15 inches

#29
irishbri74

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This is true, but the nino's have the miller A's while the nina's are all northern stream dominant usually. philly's highest avg snowfall wise out of the 6 enso states is weak el nino around 28 inches. While, mod and strong nina's are the least 13-15 inches


Sans 2009

#30
phlwx

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They were both stronger than the coming el nino (forecasted). They both had cold snowy Feb.


This year's Nino is stronger based on MEI than 94-95 was at this point...and is trending towards the top end of the model spread so far.

http://iri.columbia...._table.html#sum

It probably ends up pushing moderate if this trend continues into Fall.

#31
irishbri74

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I really hope the ski areas of pa do well
This year. Last year was atrocious! It was like boarding in a slurpee! Don't think I got any fresh powder. We'll see anyways...

Quite frankly, I'd wait till end of October to issue ANY outlook...

#32
Allsnow

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It sounds like I will finally get to use this bad boy this winter. ;)


Thats a awesome picture...love it.....Im a big snowplow freak

#33
Grothar

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All i want is a week of near or below zero weather for highs with drifts of snow of at least four feet, icicles hanging down three feet and the wind blowing for 25mph + for three days with wind chills to minus 30 and with alberta clippers every 2-3 days to keep the ground white. It has been one hell of a long time since we had weather like this around here. Two-three foot snow would be nice but unlikely in this years pattern. I would like to see the GOM more active and 4 corner lows start to develop in November for me to even get excited about Miller A's

#34
snowlurker

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Careful Grothar, your post is NSFW for winter wx weenies.

#35
Voyager

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Careful Grothar, your post is NSFW for winter wx weenies.


It made this warmista want to puke...




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