1631 replies to this topic

[free_man]

For coastal enthusiasts concerned with decaying/recurving NW ATL cyclones.

[free_man]

Posted this last week in another thread, probably worth looking at if you have not.

Moderate risk of Great Whites to 50N ;D

[ineedsnow]

I was waiting for someone to make a thread like this although unlikely I guess anything could happen if only we could get a 384 hour gfs map to work for once!

[Mr Torchey]

Never forget Irene, went thru Hugo but I was just a kid, did not appreciate it.............I like fish, I like my house thanks. Just as the 8+ storm sure was making its way into Penfield Beach.........the water was up to my chest as I hauled azz

[bobbutts]

Regardless of whether a tropical system ever reaches them, the sst anomalies are impressive for sure.

[tamarack]

How frequently does New England get significant TC wx (high-end tropical storm force winds or greater, or major tropical system flooding) in consecutive years? Happened in 1954-55, with multiples in each year, and I think in 1960-61. 1971-72 (Doria, Agnes?) Since then?

[Ginxy]

Every year folks are Debbie Downers about NE hurricanes for some reason. Rare yes, but history says, no matter the pattern today, SSTS, what x thinks, it can happen. I hope not, love my home, power, work and family.

[cpick79]

Every year folks are Debbie Downers about NE hurricanes for some reason. Rare yes, but history says, no matter the pattern today, SSTS, what x thinks, it can happen. I hope not, love my home, power, work and family.

i think because the vast majority of storms are weakening rapidly as they reach 40N and most of them are Cat 1 and lower and even so the cat 1 winds barely ever are recorded outside the immediate beach making them very similiar to very strong nor'easters. Also the winds effects are almost always confined to the S coastal SNE and Se mass/cape cod. The not so funny thing is that every once in a while ...maybe 25 year or so a beast of a storm ravages the s coast of ct/ri/cape cod and even parts of bristol/plymouth counties with winds gusts near and over 120mph (higher on coast) .

I lived thru many canes in FL but i was in raynham,ma for hurricane bob in 1991 and that sure was a freakin blast. 20 miles to the South of me and especially over the cape....that storm is a bench mark to which other hurricanes are measured for SE SNE.

[HubbDave]

The 120 mph gusts might be a reach... those maybe happen every 50 or 75 years

[cpick79]

The 120 mph gusts might be a reach... those maybe happen every 50 or 75 years

38, 54, 60 and 91

[Diego]

Would a repeat of this satisfy the debbie downers?


http://en.wikipedia....gland_hurricane

[cpick79]

diego i'll take a major hurricane some where near east coast moving north for some huge swells.

and if a large hurricane heads north into S coastal new england i'll be getting a hotel somewhere close by

[HubbDave]

38, 54, 60 and 91

I just looked up Bob (91) and did not realize there were 2 reports of gusts to 125 mph in Ptown

my bad


:edit - Wood's Hole and Brewster

[Mr Torchey]

Tropical Storm Irene did so much damage here in Fairfield, even a fairly meager tropical cyclone can cause serious damage, what a day!

[Diego]

diego i'll take a major hurricane some where near east coast moving north for some huge swells.

and if a large hurricane heads north into S coastal new england i'll be getting a hotel somewhere close by

The problem with chasing up here would be their rapid motion past HSE.

[CT Rain]

i think because the vast majority of storms are weakening rapidly as they reach 40N and most of them are Cat 1 and lower and even so the cat 1 winds barely ever are recorded outside the immediate beach making them very similiar to very strong nor'easters. Also the winds effects are almost always confined to the S coastal SNE and Se mass/cape cod. The not so funny thing is that every once in a while ...maybe 25 year or so a beast of a storm ravages the s coast of ct/ri/cape cod and even parts of bristol/plymouth counties with winds gusts near and over 120mph (higher on coast) .

I lived thru many canes in FL but i was in raynham,ma for hurricane bob in 1991 and that sure was a freakin blast. 20 miles to the South of me and especially over the cape....that storm is a bench mark to which other hurricanes are measured for SE SNE.

You're partially correct here. A cat 1 hurricane, take Gloria for instance, produces cat 1 winds in a very small area on the beaches. However, the impacts inland are much greater than a very strong nor'easter. In the last 40 years we've had many strong nor'easters that have produced minimal inland impact in terms of wind.... Gloria and Irene, however, produced widespread wind damage to trees and powerlines inland. Much worse than a noreaster.

[CT Rain]

Tropical Storm Irene did so much damage here in Fairfield, even a fairly meager tropical cyclone can cause serious damage, what a day!

Yes, E NY, CT, W Mass, VT were hit incredibly hard by Irene. In CT we had record fresh water flooding in some towns, some of the worst storm surge flooding in decades at the shoreline (worse than 92/78 in many areas), and record power outages inland.

[Mr Torchey]

Yes, E NY, CT, W Mass, VT were hit incredibly hard by Irene. In CT we had record fresh water flooding in some towns, some of the worst storm surge flooding in decades at the shoreline (worse than 92/78 in many areas), and record power outages inland.

I think we hit just over 8 feet surge here, when I was down taking pics, I almost got caught up in the wave action the water came is so fast I really cant imagine a cat 2 taking the same track, we are certainly vulnerable especially the east facing beach towns in ct with a track like that.

[CT Rain]

I think we hit just over 8 feet surge here, when I was down taking pics, I almost got caught up in the wave action the water came is so fast I really cant imagine a cat 2 taking the same track, we are certainly vulnerable especially the east facing beach towns in ct with a track like that.

The surge was about 5.5 ft. The astro tide also added on top of the surge. The surge was actually fairly consistent across the Sound. The USGS put a ton of quick deployment gauges across the sound and the data is awesome.

[CoastalWx]

SNE has no idea what they would be in for, if a CAT II hit BDR or HVN.

[Mr Torchey]

The surge was about 5.5 ft. The astro tide also added on top of the surge. The surge was actually fairly consistent across the Sound. The USGS put a ton of quick deployment gauges across the sound and the data is awesome.

So with the surge and astro what was the actual surge above mean average tide would you think? locals here said it was around or just over 8 feet, equivalent or just shy of dec 1992 at least here. Regardless, impressive and destructive especially around here east thru the milford hvn area from what I have seen with my own eyes.

[CT Rain]

So with the surge and astro what was the actual surge above mean average tide would you think? locals here said it was around or just over 8 feet, equivalent or just shy of dec 1992 at least here. Regardless, impressive and destructive especially around here east thru the milford hvn area from what I have seen with my own eyes.

Well "surge" is really just what's above astro tide... so it was 5.5 feet of surge. You probably could tack on 2 feet for the astro assist to get the storm tide. In Fairfield it was about the equivalent on 92.... in Stamford 92 and 78 were worse.

New Haven area Irene was the worst since the 50s.

[CT Rain]

SNE has no idea what they would be in for, if a CAT II hit BDR or HVN.

No kidding.

[Mr Torchey]

Well "surge" is really just what's above astro tide... so it was 5.5 feet of surge. You probably could tack on 2 feet for the astro assist to get the storm tide. In Fairfield it was about the equivalent on 92.... in Stamford 92 and 78 were worse.

New Haven area Irene was the worst since the 50s.

Thanks!

[Wx Hype]

All we can do us hope and wish for a 1938 type storm present day

[free_man]

Let's not forget 1944, which was shadowed by 1938. '44 also had 100-130mph gusts in SNE.

[powderfreak]

You're partially correct here. A cat 1 hurricane, take Gloria for instance, produces cat 1 winds in a very small area on the beaches. However, the impacts inland are much greater than a very strong nor'easter. In the last 40 years we've had many strong nor'easters that have produced minimal inland impact in terms of wind.... Gloria and Irene, however, produced widespread wind damage to trees and powerlines inland. Much worse than a noreaster.

A big difference is that hurricanes tend to hit when trees have full foliage... I still think you are correct, Ryan, even if all things are the same... but I think some of our stronger winter-time nor'easters could produce similar tree damage if they hit in the middle of full foliage and tree growth. Even fall storms in say October hit when trees are hardening up for the winter and leaves are weakening their hold.

[CT Rain]

Let's not forget 1944, which was shadowed by 1938. '44 also had 100-130mph gusts in SNE.

I always thought 44 was overhyped in most areas... could be wrong. At least in CT I'm pretty sure it was meh... although it may have been overshadowed by what was happening overseas.

[CT Rain]

A big difference is that hurricanes tend to hit when trees have full foliage... I still think you are correct, Ryan, even if all things are the same... but I think some of our stronger winter-time nor'easters could produce similar tree damage if they hit in the middle of full foliage and tree growth. Even fall storms in say October hit when trees are hardening up for the winter and leaves are weakening their hold.

Oh yeah that definitely makes a big difference. Good point.

[free_man]

I always thought 44 was overhyped in most areas... could be wrong. At least in CT I'm pretty sure it was meh... although it may have been overshadowed by what was happening overseas.

That was my opinion too, until a few years ago I read some books and historical stuff on it. Wasn't a huge deal for most (similar to Bob), but winds were sustained like 100 on Block Island. Lots of damage s coast/cape.

You're right, the overseas headlines were a bigger deal. That also happened in '38 and '91, too. lol

[free_man]

A big difference is that hurricanes tend to hit when trees have full foliage... I still think you are correct, Ryan, even if all things are the same... but I think some of our stronger winter-time nor'easters could produce similar tree damage if they hit in the middle of full foliage and tree growth. Even fall storms in say October hit when trees are hardening up for the winter and leaves are weakening their hold.

S to SE wind direction makes a difference, as it's an unusual dir for strong sustained winds. Also any PRE event/ saturated, loose ground prior to, which is less of a factor in the colder months. Other differences , too.

[CT Rain]

That was my opinion too, until a few years ago I read some books and historical stuff on it. Wasn't a huge deal for most (similar to Bob), but winds were sustained like 100 on Block Island. Lots of damage s coast/cape.

You're right, the overseas headlines were a bigger deal. That also happened in '38 and '91, too. lol

Yeah with the offshore track places like BID and the Cape were hit much harder. Strongest winds were out of the north which lead to meh flooding. I'd be interested to see the amount of inland damage from a storm like 44. Hartford I think was 5-min sustained at 50mph out of the north (the extreme velocity readings are all over the place and likely inaccurate) so that should cause quite a bit of tree damage.

[CT Rain]

S to SE wind direction makes a difference, as it's an unusual dir for strong sustained winds. Also any PRE event/ saturated, loose ground prior to, which is less of a factor in the colder months. Other differences , too.

This is huge. 1938 is perfect example of this with the number of trees that were uprooted. It had been pouring prior to the event (PRE and ULL) so even areas along the storm track were quite vulnerable to tree damage.

[cpick79]

SNE has no idea what they would be in for, if a CAT II hit BDR or HVN.

if it's anything like wilma in central broward county i will say that was the most amazing weather event of my life , hands down.

to a home owner...i would be cutting trees down (that threaten my house)in the days preceeding it however possible.

Here in SNE a storm racing north and plowing into CT/RI would throw a wall of water that would probably do untold $ these days. I think the economic impact to RI/CT/SE mass and cape could be quite troubling to a already hobbling economy.

OT but every year i still think that the place most vulnerable to a present day multi thousand fatality storm is in the key's of florida if a Cat 4/5 ever rolls thru and drown the whole damn complacent chain. They don't evacuate on the key's .esp Kwest 80% will not move. and one day their luck will run out and it will be a historic tragedy.

[CoastalWx]

We should make a rule not the post any GFS images beyond 120 hrs.