96 replies to this topic

[snowlover2]

Looks like some much needed rain coming for a good chunk of the OV. HPC shows most of Ohio/IN and south with at least 1"+ increasing to 2"+ from about I-70 south and higher south of the OH River.
Slow moving and training storms could lead to higher totals.

ILN AFD

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH A LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH AND COOLING ALOFT COMBINING WITH AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE SURFACE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION IS STILL IN QUESTION.

FOR FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRAVEL UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A CHUNK OF
MOISTURE. CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGES ABOVE NORMAL IN A REGIME THAT WILL FEATURE SLOW MOVING CELLS
AND A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST...ENHANCED
BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM TIME TO TIME. A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ZONAL WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. FRIDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.

Attached Files

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[daddylonglegs]

Looks great...hopefully some of the crops can still be salvaged...although it may be too late that far south and east.

[BeauDodson]

Has some potential - hoping we see a shift even further northwest.

 7-10-2012 8-33-18 PM.jpg   386.25K   1 downloads

[Stebo]

I am pleased to see this potential inching this way also. We still need some rain up here especially areas in the center of the state. Plus I work this weekend so that would help make my shifts go by faster

[Hoosier]

00z NAM has 2" of rain here.

[hm8]

Going on vacation this weekend to the West Coast of MI so I'm gonna be selfish and hope the rain stays away...

[69 A Porcupine]

Come on NW shift!!

[Hoosier]

00z NAM has 2" of rain here.

Meanwhile the GFS has like .3 through 84 hours. Teehee.

[snowlover2]

NWS IND saying NAM is an outlier in their afternoon AFD.


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN AND IF RAIN WILL COME.

GFS AND SREF CLOSE WITH THE NAM AN OUTLIER. THAT SUGGESTS MAV POPS
BEST TO START WITH. UNDER THIS THEORY NO PRECIP BEFORE THURSDAY.
EVEN THEN WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH WITH DRY
ELSEWHERE. THATS BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF PROBLEMS WITH
GUIDANCE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE EVER SINCE MAY.

[Thundersnow12]

Where we are on Kentucky Lake, the water levels don't seem bad at all and close to what I remember them being when we were down here several years ago. They do look like they could use some rain though.

[Hoosier]

NWS IND saying NAM is an outlier in their afternoon AFD.


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN AND IF RAIN WILL COME.

GFS AND SREF CLOSE WITH THE NAM AN OUTLIER. THAT SUGGESTS MAV POPS
BEST TO START WITH. UNDER THIS THEORY NO PRECIP BEFORE THURSDAY.
EVEN THEN WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH WITH DRY
ELSEWHERE. THATS BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF PROBLEMS WITH
GUIDANCE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE EVER SINCE MAY.

NAM may continue to be an outlier. Euro rolling in looks nothing like it in terms of precip.

[IWXwx]

NAM may continue to be an outlier. Euro rolling in looks nothing like it in terms of precip.

Well, this is a switch. So far this summer, every time the atmosphere sneezes or farts, the GFS has spit out unbelievable QPF. This time it's the NAM's turn. However, this does have more juice to work with. I'm just concerned with how far north that moisture will come.

[Chicago WX]

I haven't looked at any models, but having a chance of rain in the forecast for Friday through Tuesday (likely for Friday at that) is a good thing I guess. Crossing my fingers...

[Alek]

Jealous but good luck all

[WestMichigan]

Going on vacation this weekend to the West Coast of MI so I'm gonna be selfish and hope the rain stays away...

Not sure where you are going, but Holland is on day 19 or 20 without any rain. I am hoping/praying for some rain out this way. It is so dry and we have missed out on all of the action for quite some time now.

[Hoosier]

I haven't looked at any models, but having a chance of rain in the forecast for Friday through Tuesday (likely for Friday at that) is a good thing I guess. Crossing my fingers...

NAM dialing back our precip on each run. Went from about 2" on the 00z run to .7 on the 18z run and other models are considerably drier. Euro now has about .1" for us. I guess we can hope we luck out with convective elements...

[WisTodd]

MKX grids have had anywhere from 20-40% pops for SE WI starting Sat., into Sat. night and Sunday. Considering the 7-day forecast on Monday morning had *zero* pops for any precip, I've felt at least a little better the past several forecast cycles. I'd forgotten how much droughts bum me out and I'm not even a farmer.
Then I caught Mark Baden's 5:20pm forecast on Ch. 12 in Milwaukee. He's going with persistence -- said it's going to heat back up and the rain chances aren't even worth mentioning. Ouch -- it hurt to hear that. Prolly a good forecast, considering the awful pattern, but still... The only bone he could throw was at the end of the segment, he said to the anchor desk that there's some indications that later next week rain chances could enter the picture.

I thought I could obsess about a possible snowstorm or severe wx event -- Hah! This drought really has me sideways. I'm so wishcasting for any drought relief, not just IMBY, but for everyone who's suffering.

For those who like the stats, here's mine. I am located exactly between West Bend and Sheboygan WI. There's been better rain to our N and NE, and it gets worse as you go just slightly south or southwest.
Our location had 4.20" of moisture in March.
Then 2.60" of rain in April. Below normal but, nicely spaced out, and we needed it after the record warm March.
May had 2.20" of rain. It fell in basically a 5-day stretch from May 2nd to May 6th, and over Memorial Day weekend. The deficit kept increasing.
June had 1.35". 1.15 of it fell in 2 hours with storms on early Monday morning the 18th. Those storms completely missed folks just 5-7 miles to our S.
We have had .25" of rain so far in July. Got lucky and caught the tail end of some storms on the evening of the 2nd and morning of the 3rd.

[wisconsinwx]

MKX grids have had anywhere from 20-40% pops for SE WI starting Sat., into Sat. night and Sunday. Considering the 7-day forecast on Monday morning had *zero* pops for any precip, I've felt at least a little better the past several forecast cycles. I'd forgotten how much droughts bum me out and I'm not even a farmer.
Then I caught Mark Baden's 5:20pm forecast on Ch. 12 in Milwaukee. He's going with persistence -- said it's going to heat back up and the rain chances aren't even worth mentioning. Ouch -- it hurt to hear that. Prolly a good forecast, considering the awful pattern, but still... The only bone he could throw was at the end of the segment, he said to the anchor desk that there's some indications that later next week rain chances could enter the picture.

I thought I could obsess about a possible snowstorm or severe wx event -- Hah! This drought really has me sideways. I'm so wishcasting for any drought relief, not just IMBY, but for everyone who's suffering.

For those who like the stats, here's mine. I am located exactly between West Bend and Sheboygan WI. There's been better rain to our N and NE, and it gets worse as you go just slightly south or southwest.
Our location had 4.20" of moisture in March.
Then 2.60" of rain in April. Below normal but, nicely spaced out, and we needed it after the record warm March.
May had 2.20" of rain. It fell in basically a 5-day stretch from May 2nd to May 6th, and over Memorial Day weekend. The deficit kept increasing.
June had 1.35". 1.15 of it fell in 2 hours with storms on early Monday morning the 18th. Those storms completely missed folks just 5-7 miles to our S.
We have had .25" of rain so far in July. Got lucky and caught the tail end of some storms on the evening of the 2nd and morning of the 3rd.

The latest HPC 5 day precip outlook basically dry slots the SE 1/3 of Wisconsin, so Baden's stance is the safe money bet for sure. I think the GFS is the only major model that indicates even meager drought relief, and I haven't taken that model seriously in several months.

[Chicago WX]

NAM dialing back our precip on each run. Went from about 2" on the 00z run to .7 on the 18z run and other models are considerably drier. Euro now has about .1" for us. I guess we can hope we luck out with convective elements...

Heh. A couple of the GFS individual ensembles are decent for us...but, I can see where this is going for LAF. Brutal.

[Boogieman]

I'm searching for rain dance classes right now!

[Geos]

This moisture in this area shown is probably a tease then. Probably the corn crop is done in for around here - it sounds like.



Sounds good Boogieman!

[Hoosier]

Heh. A couple of the GFS individual ensembles are decent for us...but, I can see where this is going for LAF. Brutal.

12z NAM down to .11" for us. Still some hope for locally higher amounts with convection involved but how far we've fallen...

[Alek]

looking grim

[Hoosier]

Last I checked this was a thread about a rain event. Take the dry fetishizing somewhere else.

[KokomoWX]

12z NAM down to .11" for us. Still some hope for locally higher amounts with convection involved but how far we've fallen...

It is like winter with a tight and frustrating snow gradient.

LAF 0.12
GUS 0.47
OKK 0.77
MIE 1.31

[Angrysummons]

Last I checked this was a thread about a rain event. Take the dry fetishizing somewhere else.

lol.

Yeah, it will be a scattered event, probably always was. The NAM overpowered the shortwave(again).

[Hoosier]

lol...18z NAM has no rain for LAF (not counting the few hundredths it shows tonight which probably won't happen).

[Angrysummons]

Got a small piece of popcorn to my southeast. Come to papa...........

[B-Rent]

Drought begets drought?

[Hoosier]

Drought begets drought?

Compare that to the image posted farther up the thread.

[B-Rent]

The 5 day does show higher totals, but I can't place much trust in it, due to the recent trends.

[Hoosier]

Brent, that 5 day outlook looks like an old image on my end.

[Chicago WX]

Drought begets drought?

Pretty much a whiff for the state of Indiana.

Depressing.

[B-Rent]

Cache? I see it as today's 12z on my computer and phone. I didn't save and upload, it's straight from the Site.

Sent from my SCH-I500 2

[Brewers]

Noticed that the precipitation amounts are trying to creep higher for SE Wisconsin but I want to see it to believe it