51 replies to this topic

[Thunder Road]

PHL 98.5
ABE 95.5
TTN 97.5
EWR 99.5
ACY 96.5
ILG 97.5
MPO 88.5


For your viewing pleasure, the NAM MOS: http://www.nws.noaa....a=KPHL&sta=KMPO


and the GFS MOS: http://www.nws.noaa....a=KPHL&sta=KMPO


Interesting that the farther north you get (i.e. ABE and MPO) the GFS is actually warmer than the NAM.

[phlwx]

PHL 98.5
ABE 95.5
TTN 97.5
EWR 99.5
ACY 96.5
ILG 97.5
MPO 88.5


For your viewing pleasure, the NAM MOS: http://www.nws.noaa....a=KPHL&sta=KMPO


and the GFS MOS: http://www.nws.noaa....a=KPHL&sta=KMPO


Interesting that the farther north you get (i.e. ABE and MPO) the GFS is actually warmer than the NAM.

Good #'s...

PHL over -- 99
ABE over -- 97
TTN over -- 98
EWR over -- 100
ACY over -- 97
ILG over -- 99
MPO over -- 90

[iceman56]

PHL 98.5 over 100
ABE 95.5 over 98
TTN 97.5 over 98
EWR 99.5 over 101
ACY 96.5 over 97
ILG 97.5 over 99
MPO 88.5 over 91

[Voyager]

Not going to do the over/under stuff as I'm probabluy not qualified other than to say that over the past few years is seemed as if the forecasts have many times underperformed during true heatwaves. Anyway, for here, these our our locals.

Wunderground Local:
Saturday Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 100F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%

NWS:
Saturday A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. West wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[dryslotted]

I'll give it a shot this time...

PHL 98.5 over 100
ABE 95.5 over 97
TTN 97.5 over 99
EWR 99.5 under 98
ACY 96.5 over 100
ILG 97.5 over 101
MPO 88.5 over 89

[easternsnowman]

Outside of the 3 hot spots wilm,philly and newark nj, I don't think anyone gets to 100 or above.

[Rainshadow]

PHL 98.5
ABE 95.5
TTN 97.5
EWR 99.5
ACY 96.5
ILG 97.5
MPO 88.5


For your viewing pleasure, the NAM MOS: http://www.nws.noaa....a=KPHL&sta=KMPO


and the GFS MOS: http://www.nws.noaa....a=KPHL&sta=KMPO


Interesting that the farther north you get (i.e. ABE and MPO) the GFS is actually warmer than the NAM.

Good numbers, well not really but you know what I mean by not really.

[Parsley]

12z Nam still 104-106 along I-95

[greg ralls]

PHL 98.5 over
ABE 95.5 over
TTN 97.5 under
EWR 99.5 under
ACY 96.5 over
ILG 97.5 over
MPO 88.5 over

[Parsley]

PHL 98.5 over 101
ABE 95.5 over 99
TTN 97.5 over 101
EWR 99.5 over 101
ACY 96.5 over 101
ILG 97.5 over 102
MPO 88.5 over 90

[mattinpa]

I won't go to 100 until we actually reach it or it looks obvious a day out. I do think EWR reaches 100, and over on all stations.

[tombo82685]

PHL 98.5 over 102
ABE 95.5 over 97
TTN 97.5 over 100
EWR 99.5 over 101
ACY 96.5 over 98
ILG 97.5 over 102
MPO 88.5 over 90

[Sunny and Warm]

PHL 98.5 over
ABE 95.5 under (this was a really tough one)
TTN 97.5 over
EWR 99.5 over
ACY 96.5 under
ILG 97.5 over
MPO 88.5 under

[Plokoon111]

So how long is this heatwave been going on for, for Philly? Frankly I lost track. All I know that when I was down at Ocean City MD the past 2 weeks. It has been the warmest in the ocean that I've felt in many years, and usually its that warm around late August.

[Parsley]

So how long is this heatwave been going on for, for Philly? Frankly I lost track. All I know that when I was down at Ocean City MD the past 2 weeks. It has been the warmest in the ocean that I've felt in many years, and usually its that warm around late August.

90 or higher started at PHL on June 28th.

June
28th-92
29th-98
30th-94

July
1st-97
2nd-91
3rd-94
4th-96

[Thunder Road]

Looks like I should've gone higher with some of the numbers. Lots of bullish people in this thread.

[Plokoon111]

90 or higher started at PHL on June 28th.

June
28th-92
29th-98
30th-94

July
1st-97
2nd-91
3rd-94
4th-96

^ Thanks Parsley!

[Parsley]

^ Thanks Parsley!

No problem. Definetely not shaping up to be a "cheap" heatwave either since temps. most days are in the middle to upper 90s.

[BucksCO_PA]

Hurricane going for 103 on SAT

[Plokoon111]

What are the odds that the whole summer becomes a heatwave. Joking aside, I can't wait for hurricane season.

[phlwx]

What are the odds that the whole summer becomes a heatwave. Joking aside, I can't wait for hurricane season.

This weekend is probably it for 90's for at least a few days. I don't think we get another prolonged heat event (might be a heat wave or two through end of year but those would be 3 day type events).

[Grothar]

PHL 104
ABE 103
TTN 102
EWR 105
ACY 99
ILG 101
MPO 99
RDG 105

[iceman56]

PHL 104
ABE 103
TTN 102
EWR 105
ACY 99
ILG 101
MPO 99
RDG 105

99 @ MPO? You're all in on this one...

[BucksCO_PA]

99 @ MPO? You're all in on this one...

the modern record at MPO is 95 so yes 99 is most likely a pipe dream, the all time record highs back in 1911 raise some eyebrows - they are 3-4 degrees warmer than the highs in Philly on those dates & additionally the 95 at MPO on 7/31/1911 is 8 degrees warmer than Philly that date???

http://nowdata.rcc-acis.org/PHI/pubACIS_results

TOBYHANNA POCONO MTN AP (368893)
Extremes
Highest Daily Maximum Temperature (degrees F)
Days: 1/1 - 12/31
Length of period: 1 day
Years: 1901-2005

Rank Value Ending Date
1 103 7/3/1911
2 99 7/4/1911
3 98 7/5/1911
4 95 6/27/2003, 7/31/1954, 9/2/1953, 8/14/1911, 7/31/1911, 8/8/1909, 7/7/1908

[PSUHazletonWx]

PHL over - 102
ABE over - 99
TTN over - 98
EWR over - 103
ACY under - 95
ILG under - 96
MPO over - 91

[Voyager]

PHL over - 102
ABE over - 99
TTN over - 98
EWR over - 103
ACY under - 95
ILG under - 96
MPO over - 91

I tend to like your thinking on this one, atlthough I **might** be inclined to give TTN an even 100.

[JCT777]

Over for all! It's gon' be hot!

[phlwx]

the modern record at MPO is 95 so yes 99 is most likely a pipe dream, the all time record highs back in 1911 raise some eyebrows - they are 3-4 degrees warmer than the highs in Philly on those dates & additionally the 95 at MPO on 7/31/1911 is 8 degrees warmer than Philly that date???

http://nowdata.rcc-a...pubACIS_results

TOBYHANNA POCONO MTN AP (368893)
Extremes
Highest Daily Maximum Temperature (degrees F)
Days: 1/1 - 12/31
Length of period: 1 day
Years: 1901-2005

Rank Value Ending Date
1 103 7/3/1911
2 99 7/4/1911
3 98 7/5/1911
4 95 6/27/2003, 7/31/1954, 9/2/1953, 8/14/1911, 7/31/1911, 8/8/1909, 7/7/1908

Some of the old thermometers were a bit suspect...that 111 in Phoenixville from 1936 has always been one that I felt was off by at least a few.

[Sunny and Warm]

Just wondering what the Mt Holly area heat advisory index numbers are for issuing advisories? Down here in SC it is 110. What is it in PA and NJ??

Thanks

[stormspotterlive]

I will be very glad when this heat wave breaks a lot of wear and tear on my 25+ year old central air unit.
PHL 104
ABE 100
TTN 100
EWR 104
ACY 100
ILG 101
MPO 98
RDG 103

[phlwx]

Just wondering what the Mt Holly area heat advisory index numbers are for issuing advisories? Down here in SC it is 110. What is it in PA and NJ??

Thanks

Kalkstein procedures refers to the Kalkstein heat study that was done regarding Philly. It's been linked in this subforum a few times.

[Voyager]

With all the MPO discussion going on here, I'd like to know. Did the morning low yesterday (7/6) really get down to 48 degrees at Mount Pocono? If so that's unbelievable considering the current heatwave over the area.

[phlwx]

With all the MPO discussion going on here, I'd like to know. Did the morning low yesterday (7/6) really get down to 48 degrees at Mount Pocono? If so that's unbelievable considering the current heatwave over the area.

yes. that "cool" front that came through on Thursday morning did a number on the dew points and allowed everyone from Quakertown north to radiate out Thursday night. Was in the 50's in Q-town yesterday AM.

[Voyager]

yes. that "cool" front that came through on Thursday morning did a number on the dew points and allowed everyone from Quakertown north to radiate out Thursday night. Was in the 50's in Q-town yesterday AM.

Thanks. I knew it was cooler than the previous nights, but I didn't think anyone actually could get down into the 40's. Pretty impressive!

[iceman56]

Some of the old thermometers were a bit suspect...that 111 in Phoenixville from 1936 has always been one that I felt was off by at least a few.

Yep, that's always bothered me for something as significant as a state record. I think Philly was 103 that day which
makes 111 in P-ville quite unlikely. Unless it's due to less heat island effect in 1936...