66 replies to this topic

[stormspotterlive]

Well it is rather early but what the heck it is time to start thinking about the July 4th forecast and it is already looking like the 90s will continue through the holiday from the mountains to the city to the shore. The latest 00z GFS is showing isolated storms with a system moving in late in the day right around the time any fireworks would be going off. The euro is a bit different and has afternoon pop up storms

For now I think we will get to 90 in most places with the wildcard being the Poconos. I also think for most of the day with the storm threat being well late in the night. Will see how this holds up and changes in time

[easternsnowman]

Well it is rather early but what the heck it is time to start thinking about the July 4th forecast and it is already looking like the 90s will continue through the holiday from the mountains to the city to the shore. The latest 00z GFS is showing isolated storms with a system moving in late in the day right around the time any fireworks would be going off. The euro is a bit different and has afternoon pop up storms

For now I think we will get to 90 in most places with the wildcard being the Poconos. I also think for most of the day with the storm threat being well late in the night. Will see how this holds up and changes in time

I agree that philly which is usually the warmest spot will have no trouble hitting 90 or a bit better, but the cooler burbs weat of the city with elevation may not get out of the 80's.

[stormspotterlive]

If the 00z GFS is correct looks like we start off the early 4Th of july am before sunrise with a complex of storms that could be strong to maybe severe. Then it has storms anytime anywhere throughout the rest of the day on 4th of july. Lets hope it is wrong we do need the rain but it would be nice not to have it on a holiday.

On a side note not sure if anyone remembers but about 3-5 years ago we had a few years in a row with real nasty storms on 4th of July. First year of the series featured very heavy rain fall and severe storms. The second year had severe storms that delayed the fire works downtown. Can't quite recall if there was a 3rd year or no but anyhow not saying this will happen again but the GFS is not alone the Nam also has afternoon storms so it could be rather interesting as we get closer to see how this unfolds.

[Engine2211]

If the 00z GFS is correct looks like we start off the early 4Th of july am before sunrise with a complex of storms that could be strong to maybe severe. Then it has storms anytime anywhere throughout the rest of the day on 4th of july. Lets hope it is wrong we do need the rain but it would be nice not to have it on a holiday.

On a side note not sure if anyone remembers but about 3-5 years ago we had a few years in a row with real nasty storms on 4th of July. First year of the series featured very heavy rain fall and severe storms. The second year had severe storms that delayed the fire works downtown. Can't quite recall if there was a 3rd year or no but anyhow not saying this will happen again but the GFS is not alone the Nam also has afternoon storms so it could be rather interesting as we get closer to see how this unfolds.

I remember the one year in 2007 they were having the live concerts in Philly and Hall & Oates sang through the downpour while Patti Labelle ran away like a wuss! Heavy rain from Philly on westward. We Jersey folk hardly got a drop. Last year I remember we had some surprise thunderstorms. Mother Natures firwworks!

[greg ralls]

This is a little off topic, but does anyone know how the fireworks at Watlz Golf Farm in Limerick compare to the ones in Skippack, King of Prussia or Radnor? My favorites are probably the ones down at Sun Valley High School in Aston, but that's a bit of a hike.

[soadforecaster]

i live about 5 mins away from aston, i dont think they are that good to drive from collegeville

[LMolineuxLM1]

Never been to the fireworks at Sun Valley. Its 9 minutes from me.

[Parsley]

This is a little off topic, but does anyone know how the fireworks at Watlz Golf Farm in Limerick compare to the ones in Skippack, King of Prussia or Radnor? My favorites are probably the ones down at Sun Valley High School in Aston, but that's a bit of a hike.

I'm only minutes from Waltz Golf, but never saw their fireworks. Maybe phlwx would know since he has the scoop on that area pretty well.

[wederwarrior]

That storm in west pa looks legit.
Hope to see some fireworks from this one!

[stormspotterlive]

That storm in west pa looks legit.
Hope to see some fireworks from this one!

Getting rather interesting latest RPM model really goes bonkers down the shore after 3am where there is instability right now. Those storms are separate from central pa.

[iceman56]

Peaked at 94.4 here in NW Chesco, now back to 91.7, DP @ 70 (probably 67). Day #7 of 90+ this year.

[greg ralls]

I love fireworks, so this is one of the few days I am rooting against storms. Unless they can wait until after 10 PM - in that case, bring 'em on!

[cast4]

This is a little off topic, but does anyone know how the fireworks at Watlz Golf Farm in Limerick compare to the ones in Skippack, King of Prussia or Radnor? My favorites are probably the ones down at Sun Valley High School in Aston, but that's a bit of a hike.

The Tredyffrin ones at Wilson Park in Chesterbrook were pretty good last year. That's where I'm heading tonight. I think you have to pay to get into Radnor's.

[phlwx]

I'm only minutes from Waltz Golf, but never saw their fireworks. Maybe phlwx would know since he has the scoop on that area pretty well.

Waltz's are good but we've usually gone to Phoenixville's display in past years when we've been around on the 4th. Planning to do Waltz this year (we're going to scout out a spot at Pope John Paul HS and hope that we get a good vantage point from their parking lot since that's not too far from home).

[ChescoPaWxman]

Iceman - just a few miles from you and up a couple hundred feet only 88.7 today - Just 3 - 90+ days this season - amazing that such a little elevation difference can effect the temp. Do you have a fan aspirated station? I really think most places report too warm because they lack the fan aspirated feature.

Peaked at 94.4 here in NW Chesco, now back to 91.7, DP @ 70 (probably 67). Day #7 of 90+ this year.

[Rtd208]

Made it up to a high of 94 today, currently 92.

[stormspotterlive]

SPC has upgraded us to a slight risk and a watch is possible but only 40% chance of one. the lapse rates look good but I would like to see better shear.
http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1394.html

[greg ralls]

Wow, didn't see a watch coming (or a possible watch).

[Parsley]

Wow, didn't see a watch coming (or a possible watch).

Meh, looks like it's fizzling out north of I-80.

(hoping for a possible reverse jinx)

[stormspotterlive]

Meh, looks like it's fizzling out north of I-80.

(hoping for a possible reverse jinx)

The cluster west north west of wilkes barre is very well worth watching and may go severe as it comes into better instability and vertical shear. Weather or not it comes into our neck of the woods strong or severe remains to be seen and is nowcasting.

Thunderheads to my northwest right now we shall see if anything pops. As for fireworks I am staying right here at my house private people come and set up at jardel rec here in the northeast usually is a good show!

[LMolineuxLM1]

The cluster west north west of wilkes barre is very well worth watching and may go severe as it comes into better instability and vertical shear. Weather or not it comes into our neck of the woods strong or severe remains to be seen and is nowcasting.

Thunderheads to my northwest right now we shall see if anything pops. As for fireworks I am staying right here at my house private people come and set up at jardel rec here in the northeast usually is a good show!

Those seem like their on course for Delco.

[phlwx]

don't understand why we were upgraded to slight risk...see text was perfect for today.

[LMolineuxLM1]

don't understand why we were upgraded to slight risk...see text was perfect for today.

If it weren't the 4th of july it would have stayed as See Text, but i think they are trying to keep everyone in the loop, to bring more attention to the chances.

[MGorse]

don't understand why we were upgraded to slight risk...see text was perfect for today.

Maybe a rapid uptick in the convection will occur anytime now.

[ShoreWXgal]

Just got back from watching fireworks in town ... It's disgusting out there 83 ..no breeze at all and muggy as hell .. Every biting fly and mosquito in South Jersey found me .. I pray we get some kind of rain .

[stormspotterlive]

Cells popping around Trenton now producing quite a bit of reflective lightning seeing some good crawlers believe it or not. Stll got some convection northwest of Allentown lets see if ti does anything.

[wederwarrior]

rumble rumble and some fireworks too
fingers crossed for a down pour
nice light show now

[SouthernNJ]

The storm near Cream Ridge and New Egypt is pretty strong,
likely producing much lightning and some hail.

[LVblizzard]

Lightning show on the 4th of July to complement the fireworks, what more could you ask for?

[wederwarrior]

nice little grass greening rain coming down with this lightshow
Thunderstorm watch put up Eastern Berks

[Thunder Road]

wow we actually got a SVR out of the cell in Berks on the western end of that line.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
WEST CENTRAL LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1103 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WANAMAKERS...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LEHIGHTON...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LENHARTSVILLE AROUND 1125 PM EDT...
KUTZTOWN AROUND 1140 PM EDT...
LYONS...FLEETWOOD AND TOPTON AROUND 1145 PM EDT...

[LMolineuxLM1]

Looks like i am gonna take a Cell in about 1 hour and 40 mins.

[stormspotterlive]

Take your pick now Lighting to my Northwest to my North to my northeast and east will try and upload some vids later or tomorrow. looks like a line is headed towards the area now. Be safe out there the lightning means business.

[Thunder Road]

One 51-knot pixel on the lowest BV scan near Foglesville. KDIX is scanning at over 6000 feet AGL so who knows if that's actually mixing all the way down, but still impressive.

[wederwarrior]

wow we actually got a SVR out of the cell in Berks on the western end of that line.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
WEST CENTRAL LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1103 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WANAMAKERS...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LEHIGHTON...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LENHARTSVILLE AROUND 1125 PM EDT...
KUTZTOWN AROUND 1140 PM EDT...
LYONS...FLEETWOOD AND TOPTON AROUND 1145 PM EDT...

This cell is dumping rain and lightning
not much winds though