925 replies to this topic

[NJwinter23]

Friday still looks like a legit opportunity for the mid-Atlantic and new england. Big time EML still shown on the gfs advecting in, but with that we get a big time cap. Wind fields dont look spectacular to my eyes, but it looks like >30kts 0-6km unidirectional shear on the latest gfs for northern mid-Atlantic and looking at the BDL bufkits.

[CoastalWx]

Friday still looks like a legit opportunity for the mid-Atlantic and new england. Big time EML still shown on the gfs advecting in, but with that we get a big time cap. Wind fields dont look spectacular to my eyes, but it looks like >30kts 0-6km unidirectional shear on the latest gfs for northern mid-Atlantic and looking at the BDL bufkits.

Yeah wind fields are interesting up this way, especially in NNE. I just hope the MA stuff doesn't steal the show and we get the debris, but the overall Friday setup is kind of interesting. Euro has just enough of a s/w do get things going.

[CT Rain]

Yeah wind fields are interesting up this way, especially in NNE. I just hope the MA stuff doesn't steal the show and we get the debris, but the overall Friday setup is kind of interesting. Euro has just enough of a s/w do get things going.

Maybe I'll chase on Friday!

[dryslot]

You can really see on radar up here the water banking up against the foothills and mtns here, Some of these areas may see 2-3"+ of rainfall

[CoastalWx]

Maybe I'll chase on Friday!

What do you think?

[ETauntonMA]

You can really see on radar up here the water banking up against the foothills and mtns here, Some of these areas may see 2-3"+ of rainfall

orographic enhancement.

[dryslot]

orographic enhancement.

Basically the same effect in the winter with snowfall, There are flood watches posted for that area as showers are rotating in from the ENE

[HM]

Yeah wind fields are interesting up this way, especially in NNE. I just hope the MA stuff doesn't steal the show and we get the debris, but the overall Friday setup is kind of interesting. Euro has just enough of a s/w do get things going.

I am also worried about the Mid Atlantic potentially stealing the potential Friday. What both the GFS and ECMWF agree on is the potential Sunday has with strong deep layer and directional shear. The ECMWF is slower with the s/w and FROPA which may be an inhibitor for us but man I like the way that looks.

Friday and even Saturday can go anyway at this point.

[Ginxy]

You can really see on radar up here the water banking up against the foothills and mtns here, Some of these areas may see 2-3"+ of rainfall

Jeff how much this month up there? Crazy

[CoastalWx]

Finally getting some sun now at home.

[NJwinter23]

I am also worried about the Mid Atlantic potentially stealing the potential Friday. What both the GFS and ECMWF agree on is the potential Sunday has with strong deep layer and directional shear. The ECMWF is slower with the s/w and FROPA which may be an inhibitor for us but man I like the way that looks.

Friday and even Saturday can go anyway at this point.

Seems like you feel it's a toss up on Friday whether it's mid-atlantic or northeast. Would definitely appear that way when it comes to those impulses moving west to east from the Midwest. I'd say we are in a good spot climo wise in NJ in this set up, but that is likely cancelled out and then some by our bad luck presence...

[MainePhotog]

Here on the midcoast, we are sitting at 11.79" rain for June so far. That's including 1.00" received since midnight. All of it thanks to the epic rainfall earlier in the month.

[CT Rain]

I think Friday and Sunday both have potential. A lot of moving parts but there will be some shortwaves in the flow and some periods of decent ML lapse rates in appears.

[dryslot]

Jeff how much this month up there? Crazy

Steve, We are approaching 12" for the month here, I have the exact numbers on my computer at home, This is getting really old up this way

[CT Rain]

Just starting to look a bit closer. 6z GFS has a great EML signal showing up late Friday. Also has 40 knots of 0-6km deep layer shear. Very impressive. While tornadoes would be unlikely due to straight hodographs... it seems like a great supercell setup if we can break the cap.

[tamarack]

Steve, We are approaching 12" for the month here, I have the exact numbers on my computer at home, This is getting really old up this way

Wow. I was at 6.95" at 7 this morning, and the heavier rain has stayed to the west of MBY (except for the big area staying to the east.) We've done okay with most of the widespread rains, today notwithstanding, but have successfully eluded anything remotely close to severe (for the past six yr!)

[dryslot]

Wow. I was at 6.95" at 7 this morning, and the heavier rain has stayed to the west of MBY (except for the big area staying to the east.) We've done okay with most of the widespread rains, today notwithstanding, but have successfully eluded anything remotely close to severe (for the past six yr!)

I am going to be under that, But we were at 7.41" just the 1st week of June here, Your area seems to get missed more then hit, Its has to the location by nature as it relates to the foothills and mtns plus storm direction it seems

[CT Rain]

This ones for you Wiz.

Attached Files

•  sundayBDL_GFS.PNG   470.57K   3 downloads

[Tropopause_Fold]

very picturesque towers going up now. couple very small showers showing up on radar too.

[tamarack]

I am going to be under that, But we were at 7.41" just the 1st week of June here, Your area seems to get missed more then hit, Its has to the location by nature as it relates to the foothills and mtns plus storm direction it seems

Though nominally in the foothills, MBY at 390' is really part of the Sandy River lowlands, outside the floodplain but w/o any elev/orographic enhancements. Usually doesn't make much difference in synoptic snowstorms, 2010-11 excepted, but apparently has a big influence on convective severity. Quite a nice spot, nonetheless.

[ETauntonMA]

very picturesque towers going up now. couple very small showers showing up on radar too.

Bottle up today.

[butterfish55]

7 minute shower just built up over my head here. Doesn't show on radar but enough to wet the pavement....just like that the sun is out again

[CoastalWx]

Some lightning showing up with those cells in SE MA.

[CoastalWx]

The s/w timing on the euro isn't exactly great for Friday.

[CoastalWx]

More lightning west of phil.

[amarshall]

Some lightning showing up with those cells in SE MA.

Are there any free radar applications that show lightning strikes?

[CoastalWx]

Are there any free radar applications that show lightning strikes?

I can't think of any off the top of my head. Your best bet is looking at radar and assuming those cells showing orange or better (say greater than 40dbz) could produce lightning.

[CoastalWx]

Either way regarding this weekend....any s/w could produce some pretty strong tstms, given the environment. I like where we are in terms of being on the srn edge of the westerlies and prone to s/w's coming through the flow.

[ETauntonMA]

Some lightning showing up with those cells in SE MA.

Just started pouring here. Not showing up well on radar.

[CoastalWx]

Just started pouring here. Not showing up well on radar.

They are really small, but spitting out bolts. The kind of cells you can probably see through because the rain shaft is so small.

[BIrving]

Temps not quite " rocketing" today!

[CT Rain]

Either way regarding this weekend....any s/w could produce some pretty strong tstms, given the environment. I like where we are in terms of being on the srn edge of the westerlies and prone to s/w's coming through the flow.

Sunday could be a big day.

[CoastalWx]

Sunday could be a big day.

Yeah indeed.

[dryslot]

Are there any free radar applications that show lightning strikes?

Try this site

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Severe/Lightning.aspx

[CT Rain]

Yeah indeed.

All comes down to timing of shortwaves... but overall a favorable pattern for a high end svr event if things can come together.