1389 replies to this topic

[Ian]

We might start getting some pop ups as early as tomorrow mainly in elevated areas.

Then the front on Friday should bring at least a DC split.

Monday is tricky but there is potential if it comes together right. For now it seems that would be hard to do with the way the trough tries to drop in ... the 18z GFS shows something close to the "ideal" scenario if you want storms. Worth watching I suppose.

[zwyts]

We might start getting some pop ups as early as tomorrow mainly in elevated areas.

Then the front on Friday should bring at least a DC split.

Monday is tricky but there is potential if it comes together right. For now it seems that would be hard to do with the way the trough tries to drop in ... the 18z GFS shows something close to the "ideal" scenario if you want storms. Worth watching I suppose.

the 18z GFS was crazy...i looped the 500mb maps like 4 times

[Ian]

the 18z GFS was crazy...i looped the 500mb maps like 4 times

heh, yeah it was a bit whacked once it drops in and then goes nuts afterwards before retrograding to the west/nw. im certainly not buying that yet.. even thru monday is iffy. but verbatim the 18z has like 2000-300 cape to the east of 95 and fires storms in a pretty interesting environment mon afternoon.

[Kmlwx]

What is Ian's track record like with thread to storm ratio?

[Ian]

What is Ian's track record like with thread to storm ratio?

there'll be some storms. friday has looked off and on ok. never quite what it was originally from like a week out but models have a distinct short wave cutting through the southern lakes with the front. we rarely get out of a heat wave with a front that has no storms at all.

monday is perhaps a reach.. but it has higher potential if it works out. i think overall things will be more interesting heading toward/into july unless the central u.s. ridge just floods the entire pattern.

[The Dude]

What is Ian's track record like with thread to storm ratio?

Not nearly as good as his "meh" to no-storms ratio.

[Ellinwood]

Tomorrow could be fun to watch locally if a storm passes through. Maybe a chase opportunity Monday

[Kmlwx]

Tomorrow could be fun to watch locally if a storm passes through. Maybe a chase opportunity Monday

But as usual you'll flee our area to go elsewhere

IN all seriousness though - if you starting to think that way about Monday I'm happy!

[mapgirl]

There is a possibility for something exciting to happen? Sweet!

[Ellinwood]

But as usual you'll flee our area to go elsewhere

IN all seriousness though - if you starting to think that way about Monday I'm happy!

It's usually an issue of the tornado threat being out of the area, though also trying to chase in MD/DC can be quite the pain

Current models put the threat in SE VA/southern Delmarva on Monday, with the Euro looking less appealing with its faster solution. Of course, if it looks like there could be a landfalling cane in Florida soon after, I may just concentrate on that instead!

[Kmlwx]

There is a possibility for something exciting to happen? Sweet!

When in doubt, bet on a fail.

[H2O]

It's fun to watch how that low on the 500s drops south on the gfs.

[Ian]

Slight risk tomorrow!

[usedtobe]

There should be some showers and thunderstorms around tomorrow with the front. We're near the right rear quadrant of an upper level wind max which should help though the vaguely cyclonic curvature of it may not help. The NWS 60% pops looks pretty reasonable.

[Ian]

monday i presume from spc:

ADDITIONALLY...STRONGER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED INTO PORTIONS
OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN BASE OF
TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTION LIMITS PREDICTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS
WELL.

[Ian]

12z gfs still likes the monday threat tho it is still focused to the east and south of dc/balt. the long range pattern is good too--probably not real but eh. nice fast flow--derecho time!

[Kmlwx]

12z gfs still likes the monday threat tho it is still focused to the east and south of dc/balt. the long range pattern is good too--probably not real but eh. nice fast flow--derecho time!

Looking at the GFS and how it handles the upper low is entertaining. I like watching it at maximum speed on NCEP lol

[Ian]

new spc day 2

...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST NEAR/AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT -- WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED E OF THE MOUNTAINS
BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS...THOUGH
MODEST SHEAR MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. STILL...WITH
CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOCAL
ORGANIZATION...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WITH STRONGER CELLS/STORM CLUSTERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WHILE LIMITED THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR N AS NRN NEW
ENGLAND...GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN THE NEW YORK
CITY/PHILADELPHIA/WASHINGTON D.C. CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.

[mapgirl]

Meh

[H2O]

I will get some nice boomers down here on the bay. Book it

[Aviationdave]

I will get some nice boomers down here on the bay. Book it

shootin off fireworks?

[smokeybandit]

I just want some rain. Grass took quite a turn for the worst this week

[Aviationdave]

Got a quick few rain drops last night around 11-midnite. Nothing to help out with the dryness or humidity though

Hopefully today we get a good soaker, I dont even need a thunderstorm just some decent rain.
Like Smokey said, grass defintley slowed down in growth

[mapgirl]

HRRR has a messy line coming in around 4-5pm
HRW-NMM and HRW-ARW have a line coming around 5pm
WRF has storms starting to pop up around 3pm, but mainly east of 95 with some storms popping up west of 95 after 5pm
High Res NAM from ewall has storms firing around 2-3pm right along 95 before moving east with some other showers/storms popping up around 10pm

[Ellinwood]

I'm ready for moderate rain, a few rumbles of thunder and 30 mph gusts.

[Ellinwood]

Interesting that the SPC doesn't even have a 5% hail risk in the area today. Not saying that there's a real hail risk, but it's rare for them to put a 15% wind without some sort of accompanying hail/tor threat, especially in the summer when CAPE isn't as much of an issue.

[Ian]

Interesting that the SPC doesn't even have a 5% hail risk in the area today. Not saying that there's a real hail risk, but it's rare for them to put a 15% wind without some sort of accompanying hail/tor threat, especially in the summer when CAPE isn't as much of an issue.

yeah i wondered about that too. i'd bet that any svr storm warning will have "and hail to xx size" in the text..

[Kmlwx]

yeah i wondered about that too. i'd bet that any svr storm warning will have "and hail to xx size" in the text..

We'll see - I've noticed lately an uptick in the number of warnings that just state the wind speed.

[Ian]

We'll see - I've noticed lately an uptick in the number of warnings that just state the wind speed.

NC warning has hail!

[Ian]

60% chance if watch
http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1239.html

[Ian]

midday updated added some hail probs

[Disc]

Been stuck under crappy cloud cover all morning which has definitely held the temps down and the sun is just now finally breaking through. Those storms in NC are showing some fairly large (Analyst indicated) hail sizes.

[Ian]

watch issued
http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0418.html

[yoda]

watch issued
http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0418.html

Ian is pleased... though slightly above meh level

[TUweathermanDD]

Ian is pleased... though slightly above meh level

Hail to 1.5 winds to 75, meh + 1