830 replies to this topic

[CoastalWx]

Looks like for 2-3 days or so right now for the warmest stuff.

[Ginxy]

Looks like for 2-3 days or so right now for the warmest stuff.

which days are you saying this applies to?

[CoastalWx]

which days are you saying this applies to?

WED-FRI is my guess.

[CoastalWx]

I'll welcome it since I will be on vacation.

[Ginxy]

WED-FRI is my guess.

7-10 days, great, nothing will change.

[moneypitmike]

7-10 days, great, nothing will change.

Lock it in range, Steve.

Expect (perhaps wrongly) that I might have peeks of sun by 10:30.

[CoastalWx]

7-10 days, great, nothing will change.

It's possible it could be cut short as heights are higher to our northeast. You know what that means. It's not a classic pattern for big heat, but it seems to have some legs. However, I'm not sold one bit on having 90s Wednesday-Friday quite yet.

[MetHerb]

As of 7am I had 0.63". Still have some L+/R- so we'll see what I add to that. I only need less than an inch to meet my long term June average and I'm working on my previous deficit since things turned wetter last month.

Maybe some above normal temps later next week? Otherwise, looks like June might break the above normal streak, at least at my station.

[Ginxy]

As of 7am I had 0.63". Still have some L+/R- so we'll see what I add to that. I only need less than an inch to meet my long term June average and I'm working on my previous deficit since things turned wetter last month.

Maybe some above normal temps later next week? Otherwise, looks like June might break the above normal streak, at least at my station.

pattern change

[Wx Hype]

pattern change

There hasn't been a pattern change. We had 2 cool weeks in May and then what happened?

It's a 2 week milddown..and then Sunday starts another long string of above to much above

[CoastalWx]

There hasn't been a pattern change. We had 2 cool weeks in May and then what happened?

It's a 2 week milddown..and then Sunday starts another long string of above to much above

We did have a pattern change. The whole polar region changed with a big -NAO block. Pattern changes don't have to hang around for months at a time.

[Ginxy]

There hasn't been a pattern change. We had 2 cool weeks in May and then what happened?

It's a 2 week milddown..and then Sunday starts another long string of above to much above

Hemispheric shift. You are bucking your boy Gibbs too, says faux summer for a couple of days then MJO 8-1 supports -NAO again.

[Wx Hype]

We did have a pattern change. The whole polar region changed with a big -NAO block. Pattern changes don't have to hang around for months at a time.

I disagree. I think a pattern change means the pattern we were in is gone for good. If you want to call it a temporary change ok..but by no means is it a full change where we go from 12 months in a row of above normal to 12 months below..much less 1. I'll be shocked if June comes in below.

[MetHerb]

pattern change

I would agree...with the exception of about two weeks of mild weather in mid May, we've cooled off from the obscene departures that we had. It's been wetter too.

That map is interesting in that it shows the negative departure here but above normal in the Berkshires. I'm wondering if that is due to min. temp. departures? What's up with that anomalous +2-4° spot in VA - surrounded by negative departures? Now that's a micro climate!

[MetHerb]

I disagree. I think a pattern change means the pattern we were in is gone for good. If you want to call it a temporary change ok..but by no means is it a full change where we go from 12 months in a row of above normal to 12 months below..much less 1. I'll be shocked if June comes in below.

Unless it gets real warm for a long stretch, I don't think it will. We're running a pretty high deficit just to get to normal, let alone above normal. I'm seeing a lot of normal weather ahead with the exception of a few days.

I agree that one month doesn't make a streak, but patterns don't need to be months long. The weather we've had since late April (with one mild period tossed in) has been wetter and cooler than the 6-8 weeks before that. That is a change, no?

[snowman21]

Every time I think the pattern has changed and we start a month off -3 or finish a month -1, mother nature comes right back and sticks us with a six month string of +2 to +5 months. This has been going on for years now.

[sbos_wx]

Definitely a much more soaking rain than expected here

[ORH_wxman]

Kevin arbitrarily defines what a pattern change is to suit his banter.

Saying there hasn't been a pattern chage because it hasn't lasted months is like saying there was no pattern change in the 2nd half of January 1996 because it didn't last more than 2-3 weeks.

[Wx Hype]

MRG is splish splashing in the sunshine in the Berks today, while everyone else is cloudy,moist and muggy

[Cold Miser]

WED-FRI is my guess.

Warm is o.k. as long as it doesn't turn into HOT.

[MetHerb]

Every time I think the pattern has changed and we start a month off -3 or finish a month -1, mother nature comes right back and sticks us with a six month string of +2 to +5 months. This has been going on for years now.

It's annoying, isn't it? I'm attaching my mo departures compared to my 27 year monthly normals and you can see the stretch the last few years. We had a pretty good stretch prior to 2009 below normal but prior to that it nicely oscillated between above and below. I'd at least like to see a return to that.

 mo_dep.png   19.41K   1 downloads

[CoastalWx]

The whole hemispheric pattern changed. If that doesn't qualify..I don't know what does.

[radarMan]

.84" and it looks like that oughta do it for this one.

[CoastalWx]

Well it's definitely the latest going into June that I can remember without putting on the A/C. Taking into account it will be just past mid June in a few days and no need for it.

[moneypitmike]

MRG is splish splashing in the sunshine in the Berks today, while everyone else is cloudy,moist and muggy

Yup--just got in from a 6-mile run (pales in comparison to your's, but I'm working up) and blue sky's unfolding. Clouds still holding on the angle from here to the sun, but that'll be short-lived. Sun out by 10:30 continues to be my prediction.

[Ginxy]

The whole hemispheric pattern changed. If that doesn't qualify..I don't know what does.

Well it's definitely the latest going into June that I can remember without putting on the A/C. Taking into account it will be just past mid June in a few days and no need for it.

Yep it sure did. No AC for me yet either and loving it.

[ctsnowstorm628]

0.76" at home in Westbrook.

0.81" here in Danbury.

Bring on the weekend and some possible summer like weather please.

[Typhoon Tip]

It will depend on the amount of back-logging that is on-going in the NW Atlantic Basin and whether that finally alleviates or not. Otherwise, Northern Maine is warmer than New Jersey and eastern Mass (and CT most likely).

The problem is one of simple fluid mechanics. There's a weakness/cut-off tendency underpinning -NAO positive geopotential means, situated S-SE of the Maritimes. So long as that configuration is there, everything on here post-wise is biding time - summer has yet to truly begin. I spoke of this in elaboration yesterday. The flow is "buckled(ing) around a ridge axis in the eastern GL, and that cause perpetual confluence over the lower Maritime lat/lon; that in turn focuses surface ridging in the wrong location to get us into the continental conveyor of hot air.

Michigan may have a five day low impact heat wave of 88-93F/68 variety while Atlantic City New Jersey is plagued by coolish onshore flow. That Frankenmodel, DGEX really awesomely illustrates this over it's entire 7 days progs. Not saying that will verify verbatim but it is a nice homage to the flow at large.

That all said ... the NAO continues to creep up from it's nadir last week. -2SD then it is now crossing over -1SD, and the ensembles are reasonably clustered around 0.0SD by the 20-25th of the month. We can get heat in here before then, but I am inclined to think it would be transient if it did.

[Wx Hype]

Yup--just got in from a 6-mile run (pales in comparison to your's, but I'm working up) and blue sky's unfolding. Clouds still holding on the angle from here to the sun, but that'll be short-lived. Sun out by 10:30 continues to be my prediction.

That's awesome.
You thinking of running a half or full marathon?

I ran from my house to my wife's parents house in town last evening , 6 miles across town in light rain, since I knew it would be raining heavier this AM. First time I've ever run in the evening. I was shocked when i saw my times. I ran the firstmile in 7:01, the 2nd in 7:05 the 3rd in 7:09 and then the last 2 were just under 8 . No idea how to explain that. i felt great. The only thing I can think is , is being up and around all day loosens you up more than rolling out of bed and running 15-20 minutes later.

Rain just ending here..still some drizzle 62.1/62

[Ginxy]

For everyone upcoming stretch is just looking awesome. Heavy heavy outdoor activities without swamp azz.

[ETauntonMA]

Looks like I may end up with between .4 and .5" when all said and done.

[moneypitmike]

That's awesome.
You thinking of running a half or full marathon?

I ran from here to my wife's parents house in town last evening , 6 miles across town in light rain, since I knew it would be raining heavier this AM. First time I've ever run in the evening. I was shocked when i saw my times. I ran the firstmile in 7:01, the 2nd in 7:05 the 3rd in 7:09 and then the last 2 were just under 8 . No idea how to explain that. i felt great. The only thing I can think is , is being up and around all day loosens you up more than rolling out of bed and running 15-20 minutes later.

Rain just ending here..still some drizzle 62.1/62

There are two races in mind. The first is the really sucky Kelly Road Race in New London. It's my hometown and my siblings all descend on it for this crappy, non-standard 11.6 miles race (it's free though). More importantly for me is the Bridge of Flowers 10K in Shelburne Falls www.bridgeofflowers10k.com. Great race, part of the New England Grand Prix 2 of the last 3 years.

My peak running days are 25 years behind me when I was actually pretty good. I remember finishing 112th in the New Haven 20K in some crazy time when I was 18 years old. No idea where I pulled that pace out of, and have never seen it since. lol

Back to weather, sun's now peaking through, let the grass start growing (until it drys out over the next several days, ftl.).

[Wx Hype]

For everyone upcoming stretch is just looking awesome. Heavy heavy outdoor activities without swamp azz.

Swampazz comes for 3 days next Wed..Most of cannot wait. Until then just slightly above and phenomenal

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like 0.60" of rain here.

[TheTrials]

I disagree. I think a pattern change means the pattern we were in is gone for good. If you want to call it a temporary change ok..but by no means is it a full change where we go from 12 months in a row of above normal to 12 months below..much less 1. I'll be shocked if June comes in below.

How can a pattern be gone for good? Patterns re-appear all the time, the atmosphere is fluid and repeats all the time, hence the term analog.

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