244 replies to this topic

[MnWeatherman]

Thursday keeps looking better for severe weather across MN and the vicinity. GFS and NAM both have a consistent boundary position by evening and this system appears to have a negative tilt, which should give ample amounts of shear for the initiation zone. LCLs are also looking promising. Climatology, MN is in peak tornado season now.

[Minnesota Meso]

Thursday keeps looking better for severe weather across MN and the vicinity. GFS and NAM both have a consistent boundary position by evening and this system appears to have a negative tilt, which should give ample amounts of shear for the initiation zone. LCLs are also looking promising. Climatology, MN is in peak tornado season now.

I agree, if the dews verify, than this looks like the best set up yet this year for MN. Don't have time to post any maps, but tonight I will look to see how the models did with the dews for today. Look like warm front convection will be on going through the day tomorrow, possibly aided by the outflows, later in day it looks to interact with a weak to moderate cold front IMO.

[Chinook]

For what it's worth, the SPC significant tornado ingredients is up to 30 north of the Twin Cities tomorrow.

[Minnesota Meso]

Checking the observed dew points today against what the ECMWF was forecasting with the 13/12z run, the pocket of 60 dews in SD verified nicely, it is forecasting 65 dews in MN for tomorrow, I don't see any reason why that won't verify as well. I think 65 will work nicely with the this set up, 70's may have allowed to much cin to build up.

[MnWeatherman]

Supercell dominating in SE SD; funnels have been reported with it.

[thewxmann]

Checking the observed dew points today against what the ECMWF was forecasting with the 13/12z run, the pocket of 60 dews in SD verified nicely, it is forecasting 65 dews in MN for tomorrow, I don't see any reason why that won't verify as well. I think 65 will work nicely with the this set up, 70's may have allowed to much cin to build up.

If anything, higher dewpoints means less CINH...

[andyhb]

If anything, higher dewpoints means less CINH...

Took the words out of my mouth.

[MnWeatherman]

This might get interesting...

[Jim Martin]

All three of these soundings around the Twin Cities all are indicating winds backed at the surface very nicely. As mentioned in the previous post, things could get very interesting later today.

[Ian]

looks like the morning convection is going to be a problem for the higher risk area. i'd say the risk is probably considerably lower than earlier outlooks but we'll see if they change at all.

[Ian]

I guess SPC disagrees

[jojo762]

looks like the morning convection is going to be a problem for the higher risk area. i'd say the risk is probably considerably lower than earlier outlooks but we'll see if they change at all.

I was about to say the samething, but I guess the SPC thinks the Morning Convection won't affect the Afternoon/Evening Convection...

[Buckeye05]

Every time I see a big rain sheild like that overspread a risk area in the morning, it results in a big minimalization of the risk or a bust 90% of the time (Nebraksa April 14, Dayton metro March 2, Manitoba just recently.) However, NWS in Twin Cities is thinking otherwise for today.

"REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM FRONT SHOULD MAKE
RAPID PROGRESS TO THE NORTH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY EXTENDED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW
SPC DAY1 HAS A 10% TORNADO PROBABILITY IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI. CAN`T REALLY ARGUE WITH THIS GIVEN THE 0-1KM SRH
AND BULK SHEAR OFF THE NAM AND RAP...RIGHT AROUND 100-200 M2/S2
AND 20KTS RESPECTIVELY AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN MN.
THE MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD LIFTS NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING TOWARDS DULUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE TOP 15 DATES FROM THE CIPS
WARM SEASON ANALOG OFF THE 00Z NAM FROM LAST NIGHT DOES
CONCENTRATE THE TORNADO REPORTS IN EAST CENTRAL MN...WITH THE WIND
AND HAIL COVERING A MUCH LARGER AREA."

[MnWeatherman]

looks like the morning convection is going to be a problem for the higher risk area. i'd say the risk is probably considerably lower than earlier outlooks but we'll see if they change at all.

I also agree, currently sticking with willmar, right now, for positioning. Expansive anvil clouds to my east have barely moved in the last hour and a half, also a severe thunderstorms are developing behind the main mini squall, making more of a cloud deck. Cap is stronger that anticipated, which should halt initiation till mid afternoon or later.

[Ian]

Delayed but not denied. Maybe they slept thru 1630.

[Ian]

it's fun to watch timmer spin marginal days. i like how he sees a strong tornado threat in the southern plains today.

[Buckeye05]

it's fun to watch timmer spin marginal days. i like how he sees a strong tornado threat in the southern plains today.

Haha, yeah. Though I have to say it didn't look that marginal last night and early this morning.

[Ian]

Haha, yeah. Though I have to say it didn't look that marginal last night and early this morning.

in the southern plains it did.. i mean there's extreme instability but not much shear and it's mainly cold frontal.

[SmokeEater]

it's fun to watch timmer spin marginal days. i like how he sees a strong tornado threat in the southern plains today.

It's how he makes his money now. If he tells the people that pay for his stream, that it's a marginal day, less will pay for it. Then again, he's always made every little threat seem like the apocolypse.

[irishbri74]

It's how he makes his money now. If he tells the people that pay for his stream, that it's a marginal day, less will pay for it. Then again, he's always made every little threat seem like the apocolypse.

MmmhmmmmCOUGH COUGHmmmhmmm !!! Jk buddy!

That's the world of private mets these days.

[brettjrob]

It's how he makes his money now. If he tells the people that pay for his stream, that it's a marginal day, less will pay for it. Then again, he's always made every little threat seem like the apocolypse.

I usually defend him, but this year it's reached a threshold where I'll have to admit he's playing to his audience. I do think he's an eternal optimist regardless of audience, and that explains a lot of his rhetoric, but some of these recent instances almost beg for another explanation. Either that, or a year like 2012 breaks you down and warps your perception of reality when you base your life around chasing. I should know, except I have more of a bipolar reaction than an always-grasping-at-straws one.

Losing the financial backing of the TV deal this year also puts them in a position of having either to take new risks (e.g., premium stream, using social media aggressively to get advertising hits) or give up the chase-everything mentality they've adopted the past few years.

[baroclinic_instability]

NAM the last 1.5 days was right on with the event across MN...with quite a bit of early DMC along diffuse boundaries across the WAA regime...and a much faster Pacific front. Most of the best storms are not in the best kinematic environment...also too much junk-vection early. It is not often the NAM beats all other guidance, including hi-res and the ECMWF.

[baroclinic_instability]

I usually defend him, but this year it's reached a threshold where I'll have to admit he's playing to his audience. I do think he's an eternal optimist regardless of audience, and that explains a lot of his rhetoric, but some of these recent instances almost beg for another explanation. Either that, or a year like 2012 breaks you down and warps your perception of reality when you base your life around chasing. I should know, except I have more of a bipolar reaction than an always-grasping-at-straws one.

Losing the financial backing of the TV deal this year also puts them in a position of having either to take new risks (e.g., premium stream, using social media aggressively to get advertising hits) or give up the chase-everything mentality they've adopted the past few years.

You bring up some good points, and I think it is likely a combination of both. Eternal optimism without success, at some point, will have to warp ones mind to reality. He certainly has seen his fair share of success this year, but he has seen a lot of busts where he was calling outbreaks.

One thing that keeps me from believing he is doing it solely for business is he will often call for big tornado days when he is not chasing them. He did it for the east coast event a couple of weeks ago, for instance.

[Ian]

I usually defend him, but this year it's reached a threshold where I'll have to admit he's playing to his audience. I do think he's an eternal optimist regardless of audience, and that explains a lot of his rhetoric, but some of these recent instances almost beg for another explanation. Either that, or a year like 2012 breaks you down and warps your perception of reality when you base your life around chasing. I should know, except I have more of a bipolar reaction than an always-grasping-at-straws one.

Losing the financial backing of the TV deal this year also puts them in a position of having either to take new risks (e.g., premium stream, using social media aggressively to get advertising hits) or give up the chase-everything mentality they've adopted the past few years.

I always say he (or his team) is clearly very good but I do wonder if he's hurting himself among those who actually matter -- not that he had a ton of fans in the scientific community to start it seems. Obviously his fanbase is made up of some really stupid people so lying to them is not a big deal.

[Ian]

You bring up some good points, and I think it is likely a combination of both. Eternal optimism without success, at some point, will have to warp ones mind to reality. He certainly has seen his fair share of success this year, but he has seen a lot of busts where he was calling outbreaks.

One thing that keeps me from believing he is doing it solely for business is he will often call for big tornado days when he is not chasing them. He did it for the east coast event a couple of weeks ago, for instance.

His business is severe weather more than chasing on his own at this pt (or it will be).. especially if they ever launch their site from the sounds of it. Him hyping any threat seems like it fits into the pattern pretty well.

[baroclinic_instability]

His business is severe weather more than chasing on his own at this pt (or it will be).. especially if they ever launch their site from the sounds of it. Him hyping any threat seems like it fits into the pattern pretty well.

Yeah that is true. Credibility and the ability to forecast severe is important for his fan base. I guess I personally do not know what he plans to do with this site/business he is starting.

[baroclinic_instability]

His business is severe weather more than chasing on his own at this pt (or it will be).. especially if they ever launch their site from the sounds of it. Him hyping any threat seems like it fits into the pattern pretty well.

Sadly this is the model for many these days, hypecasting. Why bother trying to be right and thorough when all you need to do is pander to the lowest common denominator while making decent money doing it. Hypecasting, as a whole, hurts the credibility of the meteorological community.

They vary in quality from one to another (i.e., some are actually really good mets with quite a bit of skill), but I can name many. DT, Paul Douglas, many at Crapuweather, Joe Bastardi the political demagogue, etc., just to name a few.

[SluggerWx]

57 different counties in the US are currently under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. That's a pretty interesting number of SVR warnings at the same time!

[baroclinic_instability]

Now that is a LOT of DMC. Talk about an explosion of DMC. Most guidance from globals to higher res models were depicting the development of an MCV type vort max from this mess of DMC across the plains. Seems legit to believe that will occur.

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•  g13.2012167.0145_US_ir.jpg   323.98KB   2 downloads

[SluggerWx]

Can someone explain how a 46,000 ft cell is developing out of nothing just east of Denver behind that big line of storms and the front going through the central plains? Don't big rain events usually trail these quasi-linear fronts?

[MnWeatherman]

Very impressive rainfall totals just south of the Twin Cities. Radar estimating upwards of 10"!

[Chinook]

Can someone explain how a 46,000 ft cell is developing out of nothing just east of Denver behind that big line of storms and the front going through the central plains? Don't big rain events usually trail these quasi-linear fronts?

Sluggerwx,
Not sure if you are new to this, or a seasoned veteran of Denver Colorado. The Palmer Divide just has this ability to create extreme weather event. You would have to have a serious snowblower and a practically bulletproof car for the hail.

[SluggerWx]

Sluggerwx,
Not sure if you are new to this, or a seasoned veteran of Denver Colorado. The Palmer Divide just has this ability to create extreme weather event. You would have to have a serious snowblower and a practically bulletproof car for the hail.

Definitely new to this rapidly changing weather in Denver - been here only 5 months!

Denver weather/weather on the front range sure does seem insanely difficult to predict. It's difficult to understand what you're looking at if you're looking west of Denver on RADAR - definitely seems like the Rockies' affect a lot of the doppler data.

[baroclinic_instability]

One hell of an MCV ended up forming out of that DMC last evening. NAM 18z initialized MCV in the 500 height progs.That system is getting pretty close to synoptic scale in size.

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•  mcv3.jpg   130.86KB   0 downloads

[Hal]

Tornado warning issued for Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. Some of these rural municipalities have been under tornado warning for two hours now.

 sk.jpg   41.72KB   0 downloads

TORNADO WARNING
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:46 PM CST FRIDAY 15 JUNE 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF SASKATOON
=NEW= R.M. OF CORMAN PARK INCLUDING MARTENSVILLE WARMAN AND LANGHAM
=NEW= R.M. OF VANSCOY INCLUDING DELISLE ASQUITH AND VANSCOY
=NEW= R.M. OF DUNDURN INCLUDING DUNDURN AND BLACKSTRAP PROV. PARK
R.M. OF EAGLE CREEK INCLUDING ARELEE AND SONNINGDALE
R.M. OF PERDUE INCLUDING PERDUE AND KINLEY
R.M. OF EYE HILL INCLUDING MACKLIN DENZIL AND EVESHAM
R.M. OF GRASS LAKE INCLUDING SALVADOR AND REWARD
R.M. OF HEART'S HILL INCLUDING CACTUS LAKE
R.M. OF PROGRESS INCLUDING KERROBERT AND LUSELAND
R.M. OF TRAMPING LAKE INCLUDING SCOTT AND REVENUE
R.M. OF REFORD INCLUDING LANDIS AND LEIPZIG
R.M. OF MARIPOSA INCLUDING TRAMPING LAKE AND BROADACRES
R.M. OF GRANDVIEW INCLUDING HANDEL AND KELFIELD
R.M. OF ROSEMOUNT INCLUDING CANDO AND TRAYNOR
R.M. OF BIGGAR INCLUDING BIGGAR AND SPRINGWATER
R.M. OF SENLAC INCLUDING SENLAC
R.M. OF ROUND VALLEY INCLUDING UNITY
R.M. OF BUFFALO INCLUDING WILKIE AND PHIPPEN
R.M. OF GLENSIDE NORTH OF BIGGAR.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
SCATTERED, SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES HAVE FORMED IN AN AREA AROUND KERROBERT, BIGGAR, WILKIE AND MACKLIN. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON A LINE EASTWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SASKATOON BY 4PM CST.

BRIEF TORNADOES WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SIMILARCELLS NEAR PLOVER LAKE, SOUTH OF WILKIE AND NORTH OF BIGGAR. QUARTER SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT LUSELAND. HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 50 MM PER HOUR OR MORE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.