Jump to content

Photo

June 2012 Departure Thread DCA


93 replies to this topic

#1
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

01 80 62 - Normal Temp: 71, Actual Temp: 73.5 (82/65), Departure: +2.5
02 80 62 - Normal Temp: 71, Actual Temp: 68.0 (75/61), Departure: -3.0
03 81 63 - Normal Temp: 72, Actual Temp: 69.0 (80/58), Departure: -3.0
04 81 63 - Normal Temp: 72, Actual Temp: 68.5 (75/62), Departure: -3.5
05 81 63 - Normal Temp: 72, Actual Temp: 64.5 (71/58), Departure: -7.5
06 82 64 - Normal Temp: 73, Actual Temp: 66.5 (75/58), Departure: -6.5
07 82 64 - Normal Temp: 73, Actual Temp: 70.5 (83/58), Departure: -2.5
08 82 64 - Normal Temp: 73, Actual Temp: 72.5 (85/60), Departure: -0.5
09 82 65 - Normal Temp: 73.5, Actual Temp: 79.0 (91/67), Departure: +5.5
10 83 65 - Normal Temp: 74, Actual Temp: 80.5 (92/69), Departure: +6.5
11 83 65 - Normal Temp: 74, Actual Temp: 81.0 (90/72), Departure: +7.0
12 83 66 - Normal Temp: 74.5, Actual Temp: 74.0 (78/70), Departure: -0.5
13 84 66 - Normal Temp: 75, Actual Temp: 75.5 (82/69), Departure: +0.5
14 84 66 - Normal Temp: 75, Actual Temp: 75.5 (83/68), Departure: +0.5
15 84 66 - Normal Temp: 75, Actual Temp: 73.0 (82/64), Departure: -2.0
16 85 67 - Normal Temp: 76, Actual Temp: 72.5 (82/63), Departure: -3.5
17 85 67 - Normal Temp: 76, Actual Temp: 69.5 (77/62), Departure: -6.5
18 85 67 - Normal Temp: 76, Actual Temp: 67.0 (71/63), Departure: -9.0
19 85 68 - Normal Temp: 76.5, Actual Temp: 78.5 (88/69), Departure: +2.0
20 86 68 - Normal Temp: 77, Actual Temp: 86.0 (98/74), Departure: +9.0
21 86 68 - Normal Temp: 77, Actual Temp: 88.5 (99/78), Departure:+11.5
22 86 68 - Normal Temp: 77, Actual Temp: 85.5 (97/74), Departure:+8.5
23 86 69 - Normal Temp: 77.5, Actual Temp: 82.0 (91/73), Departure:+4.5
24 87 69 - Normal Temp: 78, Actual Temp: 82.5 (93/72), Departure:+4.5
25 87 69 - Normal Temp: 78, Actual Temp: 79.0 (89/69), Departure:+1.0
26 87 69 - Normal Temp: 78, Actual Temp: 72.0 (82/62), Departure: -6.0
27 87 69 - Normal Temp: 78, Actual Temp: 77.5 (89/66), Departure: -0.5
28 87 70 - Normal Temp: 78.5, Actual Temp: 83.0 (96/70), Departure:+4.5
29 88 70 - Normal Temp: 79, Actual Temp: 88.0 (104/72), Departure:+9.0
30 88 70 - Normal Temp: 79, Actual Temp: 84.5 (97/72), Departure:+5.5


Final. +1.1

#2
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

I think it will be interesting to track and discuss the summer, especially with the cool start. If June is below normal it will be up there with one of my worst busts ever.

#3
nw baltimore wx

  • 2,056 posts
  • Joined November 15, 2010

Excellent. I like these threads.

I have no analysis to back it up, but with our lousy winter, I thought that this summer would be near-normal. Which lately would feel like below normal.

#4
Ian

  • 36,879 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

Seriously doubt June ends below. Even out cool patterns are mild these days.

#5
Aviationdave

  • 8,213 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

Seriously doubt June ends below. Even out cool patterns are mild these days.


Going to have to bump this on June 30. Even if it is .5 below it is still below :D

#6
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

Seriously doubt June ends below. Even out cool patterns are mild these days.


I told Jason not to worry. But even around normal is a pretty big bust. +1 I can "spin" and give a B-

#7
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

Going to have to bump this on June 30. Even if it is .5 below it is still below :D


I know in the end it is all about average temps but you want to put up some big departures early when the norms are low. 2nd half gets really hot and 87/69 won't cut it if you built up a big deficit. We average 88/70 by the end of the month.

That said I am overjoyed to bust if I do. I hate summer heat.

#8
Ian

  • 36,879 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

I told Jason not to worry. But even around normal is a pretty big bust. +1 I can "spin" and give a B-

Longer range seems to like general subtropical ridging or EC ridge. I guess the tendency for EC troughing might be a slight concern but seems hard to believe it would continue unabated.

#9
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

Longer range seems to like general subtropical ridging or EC ridge. I guess the tendency for EC troughing might be a slight concern but seems hard to believe it would continue unabated.


Analogs scream heat. But of course analogs don't always work well for a single month and/or I picked bad analogs.

#10
H2O

  • Weather: It's a crap chute

  • 14,531 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Analogs scream heat. But of course analogs don't always work well for a single month and/or I picked bad analogs.


I believe you will still be fairly close one way or the other. There was a good reason you picked those analogs and it will most likely verify.

#11
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

Low of 58. My prediction of a scorching June is becoming more and more of a pipedream if this week comes to fruition and next week is also below or just a return to normal

#12
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

Low of 62. I accounted for it but the norms going up this summer is going to be another challenge.

#13
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

We could easily put up a -6 or -7 today

#14
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

We could easily put up a -6 or -7 today


-7.5...

#15
MN Transplant

  • 8,042 posts
  • Joined November 20, 2010

-7.5...


Largest negative departure since Apr 28th.

#16
nw baltimore wx

  • 2,056 posts
  • Joined November 15, 2010

If DCA has a negative departure again today, I think it would be the longest stretch of below normal days (5 days) since the last week of October and early November (6 days, which included the October snow).

#17
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

If DCA has a negative departure again today, I think it would be the longest stretch of below normal days (5 days) since the last week of October and early November (6 days, which included the October snow).


Low of 58 this morning. Negative departure is a lock today and tomorrow. Friday could go either way.

#18
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

Largest negative departure since Apr 28th.


probably our biggest of the month

#19
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

Unfortunately I think starting Sunday through the end of the month, we average in the range of 88/70

#20
mattie g

  • 5,438 posts
  • Joined November 19, 2010

Unfortunately I think starting Sunday through the end of the month, we average in the range of 88/70


What's that...about a +5? That's pretty toasty.

No offense, but I hope you bust huge!

#21
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

What's that...about a +5? That's pretty toasty.

No offense, but I hope you bust huge!


It's around a +3. I am enjoying the cold weather. Don't get me wrong. I hate summer. But I am going out on a limb here. A more reasonable forecast would be to finish the month around normal. But sometimes I like to go for a home run.

I don't think we see another below normal stretch. But after this weekend it diesnt look like any kind of death ridge until about 7-10 days from now. If it doesnt come by next weekend I am probably toast.

#22
mattie g

  • 5,438 posts
  • Joined November 19, 2010

(

It's around a +3. I am enjoying the cold weather. Don't get me wrong. I hate summer. But I am going out on a limb here. A more reasonable forecast would be to finish the month around normal. But sometimes I like to go for a home run.

I don't think we see another below normal stretch. But after this weekend it diesnt look like any kind of death ridge until about 7-10 days from now. If it doesnt come by next weekend I am probably toast.


OK - must have gotten my calculations wrong. Either way, a +3 is pretty warm, especially if we're not seeing a hint of a big ridge in the near term.

I'm not a cold weather lover, and prefer summer over winter (for all kinds of reasons), but I don't like huge heat. The last two summers were ridiculous, and the heat got old pretty quick. I'd rather not start off too hot, since we all know that July and into August will, at some point, feature some kind of big heat.

I personally don't expect anything much over normal for JJA - in fact, I'm thinking normal to slightly below. But that's more based on hunch (law of averages) rather than science like the rest of you guys.

#23
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

(

OK - must have gotten my calculations wrong. Either way, a +3 is pretty warm, especially if we're not seeing a hint of a big ridge in the near term.

I'm not a cold weather lover, and prefer summer over winter (for all kinds of reasons), but I don't like huge heat. The last two summers were ridiculous, and the heat got old pretty quick. I'd rather not start off too hot, since we all know that July and into August will, at some point, feature some kind of big heat.

I personally don't expect anything much over normal for JJA - in fact, I'm thinking normal to slightly below. But that's more based on hunch (law of averages) rather than science like the rest of you guys.



we should be under a mean ridge starting this weekend with some short wave troughs bringing some average days here and there....the big daddy ridge should be here in a week...if it doesn't come to fruition my forecastis probably toast....I am expecting an extended period of 87-91/67-71 starting in 7-10 days..we'll see what happens...persistence is a nasty nasty monster...like an old stalker...a TRO can't keep him away for long

#24
Ian

  • 36,879 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

hard to have too much faith but lr models seem pretty insistent on a west coast trough with tendancy for ridging on the EC. through the more realistic period we see continues troughiness to the north/northeast. hard to be sold that type of pattern won't try to continue once we get into the lr. in the short term our problem in adding up some + may be that many of the warm days end up tainted by storm chances. still, hard not to think it could be quite toasty at least a few day to week stretch by d8-10 if the euro is right.

#25
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

hard to have too much faith but lr models seem pretty insistent on a west coast trough with tendancy for ridging on the EC. through the more realistic period we see continues troughiness to the north/northeast. hard to be sold that type of pattern won't try to continue once we get into the lr. in the short term our problem in adding up some + may be that many of the warm days end up tainted by storm chances. still, hard not to think it could be quite toasty at least a few day to week stretch by d8-10 if the euro is right.


models are pretty bullish..just not sure how quick we pop into a sustained hot pattern...if we have more than a couple 83/66 days this week it will probably hurt my ambitious forecast..I need a lot to work out to get to +2 after the cold start...i think around normal is a safe bet..we can still get some pretty big departures for the next 2 weeks...the last week of the month is pretty hard unless we have a ring of fire parked over us or to the southwest...DCA is dropping pretty easily at night still...not sure how long that will last...I could see a 58-61 again tonight...until we get stickier and the river gets hotter, mins might hurt my chances..the nights where it is 85-88 at 11pm are a while off (hopefully)

my analogs suggest a normal July which might not be that hard with norms jumping up 0.8 degrees this summer..August is always scorching..silly to deviate from that until we have another cool one..it has been 8 years I think

#26
RodneyS

  • 650 posts
  • Joined February 14, 2011

If DCA has a negative departure again today, I think it would be the longest stretch of below normal days (5 days) since the last week of October and early November (6 days, which included the October snow).

We eked out our seventh consecutive negative departure today (Friday, June 8th) at DCA, making it the longest such streak in well over a year -- since a 12-day negative stretch during March 23-April 3, 2011.

#27
FrederickWX

  • 3,801 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

We eked out our seventh consecutive negative departure today (Friday, June 8th) at DCA, making it the longest such streak in well over a year -- since a 12-day negative stretch during March 23-April 3, 2011.


Up my way, we also had a nine-day stretch of negative departures April 22-30 of this year. April 23 had the largest departure during that stretch, with a 46/37 max/min reading, against historical averages of 70/47 for that day.

#28
Ian

  • 36,879 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

it' hot. woo!

#29
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

it' hot. woo!


we are going to essentially erase a 7 day cold streak in 3 days....Tu-WED and looks like normal to +2 until the heat comes back Thursday or Friday

#30
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

we are going to essentially erase a 7 day cold streak in 3 days....Tu-WED and looks like normal to +2 until the heat comes back Thursday or Friday


Today is at least a + 5.5. Could be warmer. At least one of the next 2 days should be a +7.

#31
leesburg 04

  • 5,812 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

The models at least don't look too warm after today....death ridge cancel?

#32
Ian

  • 36,879 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

The models at least don't look too warm after today....death ridge cancel?

no death ridge is the persistence forecast for now imo.. oh well, a cool summer is still warm

#33
MN Transplant

  • 8,042 posts
  • Joined November 20, 2010

Let Canada have the torch.

ewall.gif

06zENS6-10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif

#34
leesburg 04

  • 5,812 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

no death ridge is the persistence forecast for now imo.. oh well, a cool summer is still warm


True...mid upper 80's is still yuck....

#35
zwyts

  • 16,355 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

yeah...the height anomalies continue to be displaced to the north...I think this quasi ring of fire I am predicting doesn't materialize until early to mid next week if at all...the euro/gfs both suggest the possibility....we start to fight quickly increasing norms soon, but I am not seeing any prolonged -3 period like we had to start the month...looks mostly normal to slightly above until this weekend and then up inthe air but a couple minus days may be in the cards...A smart bet was to go normal for the month after the beginning, but I still think we eek out just above if not the 1 to 2 I recently callled for or the 2 to 3 I predicted in the outlook...I am not going to keep revising my prediction, but rather accept that there are risk factors there to suggest why it may not materialize...2nd half is a real wildcard..

in other news, we popped a +7 on the min this morning...at 85 now..should be able to hit 88-90




Reply to this topic



  

0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users