16 replies to this topic

[Rainshadow]

.CLIMATE...
IN SPITE OF ANOTHER LA NINA WINTER AND A MILD ONE AT THAT, BOTH
APRIL AND MAY WERE UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE FOURTH
CONSECUTIVE SPRING. SINCE 1872, THIS COMBINATION HAS OCCURRED ONLY
TWENTY-ONE TIMES, BUT NOW NINE TIMES SINCE 1990. WE HAVE ALSO HAVE HAD
NINE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY OUR
CATEGORY DEFINITION UNSEASONABLY COOL/NORMAL/UNSEASONABLY WARM MONTHS
ARE DIVIDED INTO THIRDS. THIS IS ONLY THE 5TH TIME THIS HAS OCCURRED
AFTER A LA NINA WINTER AND GIVES US A LONE FOURSOME OF ANALOGS FOR
THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE SUMMER OF 1985 WAS THE LONE COOL ONE IN
THE FOURSOME AND HAS WEIGHED DOWN THE ANALOG AVERAGE. WE`LL FIND OUT
ON SEPTEMBER 1ST IF THIS WAS A GOOD OR BAD INCLUSION. THE OTHER
THREE SUMMERS WERE WARMER THAN NORMAL EVEN USING THE CURRENT
1981-2010 NORMALS. THAT THREESOME AVERAGE WAS 77.0 DEGREES. WE ARE
CERTAIN SOMEONE WILL NOTICE THAT ALL OF THESE ANALOG SUMMERS SAW
TROPICAL ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED OUR AREA: CONNIE AND DIANE IN 1955,
GLORIA IN 1985, ALLISON IN 2001 AND IRENE IN 2011. WITH THREE OF
THEM OCCURRING IN AUGUST, THEY SKEWED THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION
AVERAGE TO WET. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALLISON WAS NOT
ENOUGH TO OFFSET A VERY DRY JULY AND AUGUST.

YEAR.............JUNE AVG..........JULY AVG......... AUGUST AVG.........SUMMER AVG.....SUMMER PCPN
1955...............69.2.....................81.4......................78.1.......................76.2.....................14.80
1985...............68.8.....................75.4......................74.1.......................72.8......................9.36
2001...............75.2.....................75.4......................79.9.......................76.8......................8.20
2011...............75.4......................82.4......................76.1.......................78.0....................22.02
AVG...............72.2......................78.7......................77.1.......................76.0....................13.60

NML.............. 73.3.....................78.1......................76.6.......................76.0.....................11.28

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THIS SUMMER IS FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA AND
EQUAL CHANCES OF IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF IT BEING EITHER DRIER OR WETTER THAN NORMAL.

[Rainshadow]

Here is Mark's regression equation results:

http://www.erh.noaa....merCond2012.pdf

[phlwx]

Here is Mark's regression equation results:

http://www.erh.noaa....merCond2012.pdf

His mean doesn't agree with your analogs too much...even if we get a June heat wave.

[Rainshadow]

His mean doesn't agree with your analogs too much...even if we get a June heat wave.

He normally comes closer. I tell him I use the climo number (unless their is a heat wave or cold spell prior to the start of the season) for comparison purposes. Last winter I came closer by 0.1F and I was tempted to buy Angelo's pizzas for the whole office.

[Maximum lawman]

Here is Mark's regression equation results:

http://www.erh.noaa....merCond2012.pdf

Do you know what other covariates are in the model?

[Analog96]

PLEASE DO NOT let those analogs come true this winter! Only 1955-56 had a decent snowfall in it, and that came in March, after a REALLY boring winter!

[Rainshadow]

Do you know what other covariates are in the model?

I think its the five he mentioned. If you want his e-mail address, please pm me and I'll let you know.

[Rainshadow]

PLEASE DO NOT let those analogs come true this winter! Only 1955-56 had a decent snowfall in it, and that came in March, after a REALLY boring winter!

I doubt they are going to have legs beyond this summer, they may not have much legs after June 5th either.

[easternsnowman]

I believe that defining 3 days or more of 90 for philadelphia is outdated. Over the last 10 years or so just look at how many times it hits 90....lol

[Rainshadow]

Mark's Final Number. My only hope is if el nino gets kicking and cools August.

http://www.erh.noaa....erFinal2012.pdf

[easternsnowman]

Mark's Final Number. My only hope is if el nino gets kicking and cools August.

http://www.erh.noaa....erFinal2012.pdf

In light of recent trends that will be a summer on the cool side, so not that bad considering what's going on.

[Rainshadow]

Well that one cool analog summer 1985 cost me. The actual summer average temperature was 78.0, same as last summer and good for 5th warmest on record. In the office contest, Mark "won" again by 0.6F.

[easternsnowman]

This makes 3 summers in a row for philly...I think it's time to throw out the 1981-2010 averages as normal. just go by the last 10 years. On another topic suburbs to the west of philly have averaged 3 to 5 degrees cooler this summer, it seems like the 81-2010 averages are particularly irrelevant for especially philly.

[ChescoPaWxman]

Interesting to contrast from PHL airport with their I believe near 40 - 90+ days this summer

At my house in Sea Isle City NJ - yesterday was the 16th day of 90+

In East Nantmeal, Chester County Pa - there were no 90+ days in August and only 7 for the entire summer - water and a little elevation make all the difference!

[easternsnowman]

I've noticed many areas to the west of philly with 400 ft or more elevation ran several degrees cooler for the summer. I know it is always cooler in those burbs but it seems like the difference has increased in recent years.

[famartin]

I've noticed many areas to the west of philly with 400 ft or more elevation ran several degrees cooler for the summer. I know it is always cooler in those burbs but it seems like the difference has increased in recent years.

You can't judge that based on Paul's readings, his site is unique. You would need to look at other, longer term climate sites, Allentown for example.

[easternsnowman]

You can't judge that based on Paul's readings, his site is unique. You would need to look at other, longer term climate sites, Allentown for example.

Yes I see your point but I live near Concordville Pa and have over 400 ft of elevation and have been quite a bit cooler than philly in recent years. I don't know if it was always that way.