1937 replies to this topic

[ag3]

As we head into June, we have strong blocking and a trapped ULL, advertised by models and ensembles.

June looks to start off with normal temps and fairly wet.
May started off with below normal temps but recovered towards mid to late month.

Can June finally break the streak of above average temps?

[TheTrials]

even with the blocking and ULL, its a June sun and we have had no problem going above normal recently even with all the rain and east flow, rememember, it keeps overnight lows higher.

June should have no problem finishing +2 and above area wide.

[NJwinter23]

To be fair, this looks to be a solid stretch of below to start the month. 0 to +1 Sat-Sun... then a solid negative departure of -2 to -4 likely through the 10th...peak below temps will probably be in the -5 to -7 range middle of next week

[Isotherm]

I think the first week of June will average below normal, but major heat should shoot northeastward from the Plains by/after the 10th. It could get quite hot/humid by mid month. I'm fairly confident in a warmer than avg June.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I think the first week of June will average below normal, but major heat should shoot northeastward from the Plains by/after the 10th. It could get quite hot/humid by mid month. I'm fairly confident in a warmer than avg June.

Given the trends I think that is a safe bet. Many said the same thing (finally a below avg month) going into May and look how that turned out. As always the trend is your friend.

[TheTrials]

Plus 8 in march. Wow.

[Brian5671]

Plus 8 in march. Wow.

TORCH

[ag3]

Euro ensembles keep the -NAO block through its entire run, for the next 15 days.
The operational breaks it down and the heat ridge returns towards day 10.

Big differences.

[TheTrials]

TORCH

pretty soon spring will be 2/23, not 3/23. Global warming is a b itch.

[Snowlover76]

pretty soon spring will be 2/23, not 3/23. Global warming is a b itch.

Lol OK Al Gore
Lol
When will palm trees start growing in the arctic?

[TheTrials]

Lol OK Al Gore
Lol
When will palm trees start growing in the arctic?

there is no denying the globe is warming and we are seeing ridiculous stretches of ++++ departures. Im not on the AL Gore band wagon, but climo is changing and fast.

[bmc10]

I think June will feature mixed weather conditions.

[ag3]

This isn't a global warming thread.

[TheTrials]

This isn't a global warming thread.

I'm observing how messed up the monthly departures are.

[ag3]

Tomorrow doesnt appear like a washout.
NAM has all the rain out of our area by 8-9am, after dropping about .75" of rain. Model concensus is now for a .50"-.75" rainfall, moving out early tomorrow morning and beginning tonight, after 8pm.

[TheTrials]

Absolutely hysterical we couldnt buy a map like this in winter.

[tornadojay]

It's been an incredible run of + departures these past few years.. I was just looking back at my own data... I've been recording since August, 2007. Even when we did have a negative departure, it's pretty much just been 1-2 degree departure. My biggest negative departure in essentially the last 5 years was July, 2009.. It was -2.6.

[Isotherm]

there is no denying the globe is warming and we are seeing ridiculous stretches of ++++ departures. Im not on the AL Gore band wagon, but climo is changing and fast.

I believe 2012 was the summer many had predicted to be ice-free in the Arctic, from back in the early 2000s. Reality -- ice extent is only slightly below normal, and above the past several years.


2000-2009 Jan-Dec:




2010-2011 Jan Dec. Notice the torch in the East, but cooling in the West, likely due to the -PDO signal.

[ag3]

Ensembles from the free site...-NAO block reloads after this on the pay maps through day 15:

[TheTrials]

I believe 2012 was the summer many had predicted to be ice-free in the Arctic, from back in the early 2000s. Reality -- ice extent is only slightly below normal, and above the past several years.

that's just ice extent, the globe is on fire with droughts everywhere.

[ag3]

Please keep the global warming stuff out of this thread.

Thanks.

[Isotherm]

Ensembles from the free site...-NAO block reloads after this on the pay maps through day 15:

Even if H5 heights are that low, I'm not convinced surface temperatures will respond that much cooler than normal. Chris (bluewave) has made some good posts re the lack of cold sfc air associated with troughs in the past years. Cool airmasses have generally been underperforming. However, next week I could see a couple days stuck in the low 60s w/ strong onshore flow. June will certainly be starting off cooler than normal, much like May. Question is will be continue w/ that pattern or will this reverse by mid month. If it doesn't reverse, most of us in the June forecast thread will be busting.

[Isotherm]

For example, here are the H5 temp anomalies for Sunday, June 3rd:




Forecast high surface temperatures for NYC -- around 76F, which is essentially normal for this time of year.


http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text


The point is, in order to get cooler than normal highs, we need onshore flow. We'll get it for a handful of days next week I think -- those days could be quite cool. However, thereafter, I see us going back to a normal or slightly above normal regime.

[TheTrials]

ironic it takes an UBER block with anomlous ULL to get temps to "normal"

Just shows you how torched we are.

[bluewave]

It's also interesting how consistent the blocking pattern in June has been since 2007.
We have had a negative NAO each June since 2007 and 4 out of the 5 years
featured above normal temperatures around the area. What has usually happened
was that temperatures warmed up as the blocking faded and the ridge over the
plains build eastward. That's probably what we will see this June eventually as
the heights gradually rebuild after the upper low lifts out. It still could be a slow
process as the drop in the NAO is so strong. But the pattern still favors a warmer
than normal month despite some cooler than normal days over the next week.

[TheTrials]

It's also interesting how consistent the blocking pattern in June has been since 2007.
We have had a negative NAO each June since 2007 and 4 out of the 5 years
featured above normal temperatures around the area. What has usually happened
was that temperatures warmed up as the blocking faded and the ridge over the
plains build eastward. That's probably what we will see this June eventually as
the heights gradually rebuild after the upper low lifts out. It still could be a slow
process as the drop in the NAO is so strong. But the pattern still favors a warmer
than normal month despite some cooler than normal days over the next week.

and watch it wont come back until next summer which fits in well with my winter forecast.

[earthlight]

ironic it takes an UBER block with anomlous ULL to get temps to "normal"

Just shows you how torched we are.

Well it's also the source of the cold -- it really works differently this time of year without any arctic air source.

As tom said a few times, we get our below normal temperatures when the block forces a ULL off to our east, not directly over us. This brings the backdoor fronts and the onshore flow...and the much cooler temps.

[TheTrials]

Well it's also the source of the cold -- it really works differently this time of year without any arctic air source.

As tom said a few times, we get our below normal temperatures when the block forces a ULL off to our east, not directly over us. This brings the backdoor fronts and the onshore flow...and the much cooler temps.

point remains the same, we only got to normal because of an anomolous setup.

[nzucker]

It's been an incredible run of + departures these past few years.. I was just looking back at my own data... I've been recording since August, 2007. Even when we did have a negative departure, it's pretty much just been 1-2 degree departure. My biggest negative departure in essentially the last 5 years was July, 2009.. It was -2.6.

December 2010 finished around 4.5F below normal in the region. June 2009 finished -3.7F at Central Park, and July 2009 finished -3.8F. There have been some larger negative departures than what you're saying.

For example, here are the H5 temp anomalies for Sunday, June 3rd:
Forecast high surface temperatures for NYC -- around 76F, which is essentially normal for this time of year.
The point is, in order to get cooler than normal highs, we need onshore flow. We'll get it for a handful of days next week I think -- those days could be quite cool. However, thereafter, I see us going back to a normal or slightly above normal regime.

I think the NWS is overdoing temperatures for Monday-Wednesday in the NYC metro area. Weather Channel has low to mid 60s as highs for Westchester for those days with occasional showers and onshore flow, with nights dipping into the mid 50s. That's about -5F departure for each day.

[Plfdwxdude]

Yeah I think with that much cloud cover we'll either see 60s for highs and 50s lows of 70s/60s. It would be hard to get down into the 50s with overcast skies and highs in the 70s

I think the NWS is overdoing temperatures for Monday-Wednesday in the NYC metro area. Weather Channel has low to mid 60s as highs for Westchester for those days with occasional showers and onshore flow, with nights dipping into the mid 50s. That's about -5F departure for each day.

[TheTrials]

wind advisory is needed for coastal locations right now, seeing lots of small branches coming down with gusts easily over 25.

[NEXtreme]

Yeah I think with that much cloud cover we'll either see 60s for highs and 50s lows of 70s/60s. It would be hard to get down into the 50s with overcast skies and highs in the 70s

Models have been busting too high with temps in the Midwest into the lakes as the chilly air is moving in. Joe B calling for 50s for NYC tue/wed and 40's for Boston.

[doncat]

Mostly cloudy here now... highest temp was 70 at 10 am... now down to 64 with an ese wind.

[easternsnowman]

If we keep going above normal every month then maybe we should just ignore the 1981-2010 averages and just accept that these kind of departures are now normal for today's climate.

[stu]

I have a really important question. Will the Mets game tonight in Flushing NY be rained out? It's a 7:10 pm start and I don't feel like driving out there on a Friday night to get soaked in a postponed game. Thanks for your insight.