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Beryl: landfall 70 mph Jax Bch 12:10 AM 5/28 TS warnings lifted S SC to N FL


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#36
Marion_NC_WX

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Beryl more or less skinny-dipping off the South Carolina coast...talk about a complete dud!

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#37
NEGa

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I am down near Amelia island this weekend. Lots of talk but so far still really nice outside lol. I wouldn't mind a storm hitting while I am already here but it's not looking too impressive at the moment

#38
Weatherkid#27

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I am down near Amelia island this weekend. Lots of talk but so far still really nice outside lol. I wouldn't mind a storm hitting while I am already here but it's not looking too impressive at the moment

My cousins are at St. Simons Island this week. I'm pretty jealous of the forecast...

Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind 33 to 43 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

#39
phil882

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That wasn't really my main point though, it's when was the last time have had 2 named storms before the start of the season? ( Which to me is impressive, regardless of how the rest of the season goes.) Anyone?

As for your other point, you are right. It's a tight system and combined with a less than stellar moist environment surrounding it, rainfall won't be huge very far from the center. My only point here was that for a tropical/subtropical system, which normally produces a fairly decent (to of course great at times) rainfall area, this one is going to be pretty dry. I do think areas close to the center will get more then 0.50 to 1 inch though but we'll see.


From what I was able to dig up, the last time this occur was way back in 1887... so yea its been a while.

http://weather.unisy.../1887/index.php

As for the second statement Adam made, I wouldn't go as far to say this system is very tight. There is quite a large wind swath forecasted from the ECMWF. Perhaps the other models have a different take, but this doesn't scream to me a small system. This is not that unusual considering the subtropical origin either.

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#40
GaWx

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Not much westward component of motion last five hours and little motion at all last few hours. Note the lack of surface high pressure to its north, which means not much westward steering at the lower levels right now. I'm wondering if the models are assuming too much west motion for today. I've seen this kind of thing in the past when surface high pressure to the north is pretty weak. Perhaps this will mean an overall slower movement toward the U.S. vs. the NHC track. We'll see.

#41
Marion_NC_WX

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Not much westward component of motion last five hours and little motion at all last few hours. Note the lack of surface high pressure to its north, which means not much westward steering at the lower levels right now. I'm wondering if the models are assuming too much west motion for today. I've seen this kind of thing in the past when surface high pressure to the north is pretty weak. Perhaps this will mean an overall slower movement toward the U.S. vs. the NHC track. We'll see.



I still wouldn't rule out the idea of it never making shore...and with it being a skeleton anyway, it wouldn't be that big a deal anyway if it turns out.

The GFS IMO has a much better handle than the NAM.

#42
FallsLake

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The best thing about the storm is the "cooler" temps because of the on shore wind direction. RDU had stated the temps would have much higher if the storm had not formed. I say keep it off the coast as long as possible.

#43
downeastnc

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Not much westward component of motion last five hours and little motion at all last few hours. Note the lack of surface high pressure to its north, which means not much westward steering at the lower levels right now. I'm wondering if the models are assuming too much west motion for today. I've seen this kind of thing in the past when surface high pressure to the north is pretty weak. Perhaps this will mean an overall slower movement toward the U.S. vs. the NHC track. We'll see.


It could be that with all the convection on the east side of the center is being is what is causing it to be slowed or even tugged a bit in that direction so it could be that you are correct IRT timing as these little nuances are really hard to predict in weaker storms. Makes me wonder if maybe it hugs the coast and or just gets inland and doesnt make it as far south as north Florida.

#44
downeastnc

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Beryl is beginning to wrap the storms around its center and it appears to be moving again but with the storms wrapping the center its kinda hard to tell. I have trouble seeing this make it as far SW as the current NHC track has it at, if anything it looks to be moving due west albeit really slowly. Prolly gonna be TS Beryl at 5 instead of STS Beryl I would think, maybe see winds increased to 50 in light of the storms around the center.

#45
Allsnow

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Hey guys in orlando with my gf....should i expect any effects from this...if so when? Thank you

#46
Isopycnic

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Hey guys in orlando with my gf....should i expect any effects from this...if so when? Thank you

Pregnancy test? maybe a STD test next week at the latest?

#47
MJW155

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I came up to Atlantic Beach for the weekend. I'll be here until Monday, maybe Tuesday.

Tomorrow's forecast. Should be fun!

Sunday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. North wind 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 75. North wind 34 to 44 mph becoming south. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

#48
Jaguars

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what's a good site for radar on Beryl?

#49
Isopycnic

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what's a good site for radar on Beryl?

Wilmington, Nc or Morehead City, NC right now

#50
Jaguars

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Wilmington, Nc or Morehead City, NC right now


grazie

#51
Marion_NC_WX

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After being gone for the evening, I see Beryl is trying to put on an outer layer of convection...

#52
Lookout

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From what I was able to dig up, the last time this occur was way back in 1887... so yea its been a while.

http://weather.unisy.../1887/index.php

As for the second statement Adam made, I wouldn't go as far to say this system is very tight. There is quite a large wind swath forecasted from the ECMWF. Perhaps the other models have a different take, but this doesn't scream to me a small system. This is not that unusual considering the subtropical origin either.

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Thanks so much for the info! :) No wonder I couldn't remember :lmao:

I think he was referring more to the rainfall than the wind field...that's what my impression was anyway.

#53
GaWx

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The skies here in Savannah have a cool prestorm look with low clouds moving pretty fast to the SW. Winds have been increasing and have been gusty. No rain yet. I'm expecting intermittent showers through the day.

Beryl looks like it may be picking up some strength based on satellite loops. Convection has increased near the symmetric circ. center as it travels over 82+ SST's with low shear.
Good vis satellite loop:

http://aviationweath...tiple&itype=vis

#54
GaWx

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Recon recently found 65 knot highest flight level winds. So, it appears that an increase to ~60 mph will be noted in the 11 AM advisory.

#55
Marion_NC_WX

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I wonder if the folks at the Hurricane Center will drop the "sub-tropical" classification later today? Is definitely looks the best since it formed a couple days ago.

#56
reflux

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She sorta looks annular this morning, doesn't she? Definitely not looking like the skeleton it once was...

#57
downeastnc

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Center still pretty broad and the convection isnt tight around the "center" so its still a bit of a hybrid and prolly why the NHC kept it a STS at 11. This is the buoy to watch http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41012 the center should pass pretty close to it and it has gusted to the 42 knts and the center of Beryl is only 48 miles away to the east of it...another thing to keep in mind is that sometimes systems like this will actually tighen up and get a bit stronger after land interaction, not saying this one will but it wouldnt surprise me. So there could end up being a period of wind strong enough to actually cause a few issues with power etc maybe even a ways inland if the storm does tighten up and hold its own once the center is over land.

Hopefully it puts down some decent rain totals but even with the flareup on sat the radar still looks meh as far as rain goes...

#58
WilkesboroDude

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UPDATE

...BERYL STRONGER...NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
2:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 79.9°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb

#59
phil882

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Afternoon update on Beryl... I'm thinking 60-70 mph for max intensity. The biggest threat is certainly still Flooding Rainfall.

http://philstropical...states-tonight/

#60
Marion_NC_WX

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If we were 4-6 weeks later into the summer, we would be talking about Beryl being a Hurricane. This storm is quickly getting its act together in <80 degree water.

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#61
metalicwx366

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Just saw a crazy band of rain. Winds were easily gusting well over tropical storm force. Sun back out again now. Wonder why they cancelled our tropical storm watch.

#62
phil882

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If we were 4-6 weeks later into the summer, we would be talking about Beryl being a Hurricane. This storm is quickly getting its act together in <80 degree water.


Those cooler shelf waters just offshore will probably prevent Beryl from getting there, but she's giving it her all!

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#63
Hugo332

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She sorta looks annular this morning, doesn't she? Definitely not looking like the skeleton it once was...



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#64
WilkesboroDude

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She sorta looks annular this morning, doesn't she? Definitely not looking like the skeleton it once was...


Not a hurricane. Subtropical features look different. It's tropical now, watch the center become less cloud free. West side may always look a bit eroded as Beryl enters the shelf waters of Florida. Dry air was also a player keeping it tight and compact on the sides of Beryl.

#65
GaWx

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If we were 4-6 weeks later into the summer, we would be talking about Beryl being a Hurricane. This storm is quickly getting its act together in <80 degree water.


Actually, the Gulf Stream, which is in the vicinity of the center, has 80+
SST's and up to ~28 C or 82.4 F. Also, upper atmospheric conditions are favorable. It cools to the upper 70's to the west of the Gulf Stream, which is still warm enough to maintain a pretty strong tropical storm under these conditions.

#66
dsaur

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I have to say I love seening those arms starting to spiral in. Surely one of those storms can catch me. 14 days and counting. Just a little storm would help :) Larry, my friend, point some in my direction! We love tropical stuff up this way. Tony

#67
metalicwx366

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Just got put under a tropical storm warning. Our time will be late tonight and tomorrow for the tropical storm force winds.

#68
NavarreDon

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Nice radar shot out of JAX. Thing seems to be winding up a bit right before the center comes onshore. Not sure if that is because of land interaction though.

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

Quick update, as of 8:00 pm TS Beryl is now up to 70 mph.

http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/272348.shtml

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH
...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...95
KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

#69
Marion_NC_WX

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Beryl is coming ashore as we speak...70 mph tropical storm. It's amazing that we already have had 2 named storms before June 1st...

#70
Met1985

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Beryl is coming ashore as we speak...70 mph tropical storm. It's amazing that we already have had 2 named storms before June 1st...

Ya looks like Jacksonville is going to get hit pretty hard.




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