840 replies to this topic

[Minnesota_storms]

It looks like severe storms are possible mid next week. I hope I didn't post this too early. Reed says "major tornado outbreak."
http://www.facebook....05519168&type=1

[SmokeEater]

Isn't this already covered in the 5/17 and onward thread?

[Minnesota_storms]

Isn't this already covered in the 5/17 and onward thread?

I see. This looks like a different event. That outbreak looks to end this weekend (Sunday).

Edited by Minnesota_storms, 17 May 2012 - 07:56 PM.

[Buckeye05]

I think it's a bit early to be using the "O" word. "Event" would be a better term but maybe i'm just being picky
Anyway, Reed is the absolute king of wishcasting. I wonder if he will start calling for outbreaks on "see text" days

[MnWeatherman]

I think it's a bit early to be using the "O" word. "Event" would be a better term but maybe i'm just being picky
Anyway, Reed is the absolute king of wishcasting. I wonder if he will start calling for outbreaks on "see text" days

[Ian]

reed is very good at playing to his audience. tho it does get annoying as someone who is not facebook level weather smart. however, we've seen plenty of model runs that if verified would likely be a tornado outbreak on some level. so in that sense...

[Minnesota_storms]

Interesting

[reber500]

Interesting

I love the Low-Level, and Mid-Level Winds the GFS is showing every other run, as in it will have them at 18Z but not at 00Z... Haven't seen the 00Z Run yet (TwisterData doesn't have it up...)

[Minnesota_storms]

wow. http://www.facebook....a41&pid=9466886

[ChiWxWatcher]

I saw this image, it's a bit far out but it's definitely something to look at.

[Minnesota Meso]

From the ECMWF courtesy of OK ST. Can anyone spell Death Ridge...If this verifies the biggest weather story for this thread would be the extreme heat as we approach Memorial Day. With possible 100° temps around the Sioux Falls area. I hate to show this, but it is what it is, looks like many of us will be watering our lawns, mother nature may not give us much.

[andyhb]

From the ECMWF courtesy of OK ST. Can anyone spell Death Ridge...If this verifies the biggest weather story for this thread would be the extreme heat as we approach Memorial Day. With possible 100° temps around the Sioux Falls area. I hate to show this, but it is what it is, looks like many of us will be watering our lawns, mother nature may not give us much.

Uhh, that isn't the timeframe where the main energy comes through (at least for your area with the initial wave, which has a less chance of being stopped in its tracks by the ridge). I do agree that the situation with the second embedded impulse is becoming bleaker with each model run.

[Minnesota Meso]

Andy, I agree with what you said, by hour 150 or so things look interesting just north to the TC's metro say around St Cloud and areas north of there, storms could initiate between 1 and 7pm just ahead of the advancing warm front, in other words a favorable time of day for severe, having said that, its really way to early to talk spec's, some will call it wish casting, some would call it irresponsible. However I will be more blunt, this is what the model is showing as of this time, chances of that verifying verbatim are almost zero. But it will be interesting to watch IMO.

[jpeters3]

From the ECMWF courtesy of OK ST. Can anyone spell Death Ridge...If this verifies the biggest weather story for this thread would be the extreme heat as we approach Memorial Day. With possible 100° temps around the Sioux Falls area. I hate to show this, but it is what it is, looks like many of us will be watering our lawns, mother nature may not give us much.

Uh... that's not a death ridge buddy...

This is a death ridge:

[jpeters3]

I'm interested in the triple point in ND on Tuesday night. Looks like 0-1 and especially 0-3km wind profiles will be really nice between 0z and 6z, with decent deep layer shear and instability. The past few NAM runs have been consistently popping off convection up here (as well as some of the high resolution runs). I'm a bit concerned about high MLLCL heights, but as we saw yesterday, this isn't always an event-killer, and it looks like there will be at least a small region in ND where they are reasonable.

[andyhb]

Are we using this thread for this now? I'll end the 17th and on thread on the 22nd if necessary, only reason I ask is that we had a lot of discussion about this in the other thread as well.

[jpeters3]

Are we using this thread for this now? I'll end the 17th and on thread on the 22nd if necessary, only reason I ask is that we had a lot of discussion about this in the other thread as well.

I vote new thread. New system, with a decent break in activity between the two.

[andyhb]

Uh... that's not a death ridge buddy...

This is a death ridge:
http://www.seanandco...0_110717_12.gif

Same ridge from 3 days earlier:

[andyhb]

Minnesota_storms, you may want to edit this to include the 22nd in this thread as well, given it will be the same system impacting on Tuesday as well.

[Buckeye05]

Possibility we could see a MDT sometime this week? Just grasping at straws here.

[andyhb]

Too early to call.

If the moisture/instability is there then it is possible, but we'll have to wait and see (I personally hate having to question instability potential in Late May).

[Buckeye05]

Too early to call.

If the moisture/instability is there then it is possible, but we'll have to wait and see (I personally hate having to question instability potential in Late May).

I am hoping it's just underdone now, cause it looks pretty lame currently.

[andyhb]

I wouldn't say this is "lame".

[Buckeye05]

Whoa, didn't see that. Was mostly focused on 24/25.

[Amped]

I wouldn't say this is "lame".

Dewpoints and LCL are not that good.

[Ian]

might be that i havent looked much since i left but the 0z gfs looks pretty decent

[baroclinic_instability]

Day 5 ECMWF already looks better, much better. Great Lakes wave is much slower and stronger...also flattening the death ridge out east with a better low level advection regime. Could be a great high plains event.

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[baroclinic_instability]

To say the ECMWF suddenly looks highly interesting day 6 would be an understatement. Still not a perfect setup, but the potential just went way up.

[Ian]

woohoo

[ksstormhunter]

Pushed out my analysis run for the ND/SD zones for 22 to the 23rd. Just showing the potential for Thunderstorms across the regions, with early forecast of winds up 60 knots. Overwatch for this area loaded on http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Push for more updates soon.

[baroclinic_instability]

Tuesday shaping up to be a nice chase day across the Northern Plains. GFS was right from a couple days ago...and the warm front will be draped across North Dakota. Lee low becomes mobile late as the 300 hpa jet maxima begins nosing into western Nodak. While GFS dews are likely overdone again...MLCAPE will range from 1500-2500 j/kg with low level SE flow veering around to SW at 50-55 kts, MLLCLs may be a bit high, but should see some impressive supercells likely developing near the triple and propagating along the nose of the LLJ/warm front across eastern Nodak.

[baroclinic_instability]

Can you say holy coupled upper jet. 06z GFS trying to uncork a hybrid COlorado Low Thursday. ECMWF about 12-15 hrs slower...bombing it across Lakes. Either way...GFS/ECMWF still project a High Plains show day 6.

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[brettjrob]

Saturday is looking up, synoptically, for a central High Plains show on both the GFS and Euro. Trouble is, neither show particularly good moisture in place, which is rather stunning when you consider it's late May and the Plains will have seen about a week of return flow by that time.

[baroclinic_instability]

Saturday is looking up, synoptically, for a central High Plains show on both the GFS and Euro. Trouble is, neither show particularly good moisture in place, which is rather stunning when you consider it's late May and the Plains will have seen about a week of return flow by that time.

It isn't bombastic, no doubt, but mid 60s for western NE/Panhandle...which ranges from 3000-4500 feet...isn't bad. Right now...a far more impressive synoptic setup progged by the only two global models worth looking at...it isn't to too shabby compared to two days ago. ECMWF Ensemble is a tick faster and weaker than the EC op...but that isn't surprising. Even ECENS mean would yield something interesting.

[jpeters3]

Tuesday shaping up to be a nice chase day across the Northern Plains. GFS was right from a couple days ago...and the warm front will be draped across North Dakota. Lee low becomes mobile late as the 300 hpa jet maxima begins nosing into western Nodak. While GFS dews are likely overdone again...MLCAPE will range from 1500-2500 j/kg with low level SE flow veering around to SW at 50-55 kts, MLLCLs may be a bit high, but should see some impressive supercells likely developing near the triple and propagating along the nose of the LLJ/warm front across eastern Nodak.

I think LCLs are too high for much of anything more than a "marginal" tornado threat, but I would have said the same thing two days ago and we saw an EF-3 tornado in KS.

Thermodynamic profiles look pretty similar to the other day, with a bit more deep layer shear and slightly better low-level wind profiles:




My concern is that we'll only have a few hour window of time where MLCAPE is uncapped, and storms will undoubtedly become elevated as the nocturnal LLJ kicks in. My hotels and gas are paid for though, so i'm probably going to bring my group up there.