1258 replies to this topic

[Mr Torchey]

Overcast
53
looks like a roller coaster ride over the next 5 days for parts of New England

[ctsnowstorm628]

Overcast
53
looks like a roller coaster ride over the next 5 days for parts of New England

Yep, interior SW CT may be a whole different world Friday as the WF nudges northeastward.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Looks like several opportunities to cut into the rainfall deficit. 12z euro is a pretty wet run.

Whoever ends up underneath fridays stuff should do relatively well too.

Anyway, all things considered actually a decent afternoon here as some dry air has moved onshore and helped to break up the cloud deck a bit.

[Mr Torchey]

A nice surprise as the sun has broken out!
55

[ctsnowstorm628]

Looks like several opportunities to cut into the rainfall deficit. 12z euro is a pretty wet run.

Whoever ends up underneath fridays stuff should do relatively well too.

Anyway, all things considered actually a decent afternoon here as some dry air has moved onshore and helped to break up the cloud deck a bit.

Lots of guidance honing in on southern/central VT and NH southeastward into eastern Mass as a probable jackpot for that WAA at the WF stalls.

PWATs look good, so whereever it sets up will get an appreciable amount of rain it seems.

[Typhoon Tip]

If you are looking for prolonged summery weather to return you may be waiting for quite some time... perhaps through the 20th of the month.

The May 2 00z teleconnector spread from both CDC and CPC are quite winter like. The NAO has taken a negative bite and labors to rise to slightly shy of neutral by the end of week 2, 15 days out! During that entire negative era, the PNA ...although typically losing coherent correlation on the flow, May still does, and the index values of the GFS ensemble suite are very tightly clustered around an ~ +2.5SD total rise through that same time span.

If this were January, I'd say hold on to your britches because things are about to rock 'n' roll. Unfortunately, this is coming at [ probably ] precisely the wrong time of the year relative to people's shifting druthers over the weather.

What skews this to some degree - no pun intended - is that (for example) the 12z Euro operational sends the U.S. through D10 with surprisingly less incursion S of the 0C, 850mb level isotherm - it's actually the warmest run so far of the year because of that integration across the whole of the domain. What that means is that if some lowered RH and subsidence period were timed well on an afternoon or two, those days could become quite balmy. Prolonged is the key... In order to get back to back days of 80+ again, we really are going to need a whole scale teleconnector breakdown though, and with the clustered values the way they are, no confidence of that happening any time soon.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles try to summon up the sultan later next week.

Seems like the GOA low is still there, but perhaps some residual MJO forcing and an tendency for increased ridging to our northeast in conjunction with short wavelengths are acting to cause a rather blocky and cutoff prone pattern. SOI tendencies have been negative, so it's possible we are throwing in a bit of ENSO transitioning as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro ensembles try to summon up the sultan later next week.

Seems like the GOA low is still there, but perhaps some residual MJO forcing and an tendency for increased ridging to our northeast in conjunction with short wavelengths are acting to cause a rather blocky and cutoff prone pattern. SOI tendencies have been negative, so it's possible we are throwing in a bit of ENSO transitioning as well.

Hemispheric tide shift ftl

[HubbDave]

Will May end up cooler than March? lol

[Guvna]

Boy...Blizz is really taking all the earlier talk to heart. Haven't seen him on here since....

[Bostonseminole]

Should I post my question here from the banter thread?

[Mr Torchey]

Nice storms firing in nw pa right now

[Amped]

Euro shows some potential for severe day4-5, especially across western sections.

[ineedsnow]

wheres wiz storms about to roll threw

[ineedsnow]

pouring!

[moneypitmike]

Managed .26" overnight. Looks like the dank days will continue. Lawn growth ftw.

43.9/43, foggy.

[thebigrombalski]

clearly can pick out the warm front boundary on the radar...so close yet so far

[dendrite]

The GFS is really beginning to cave up here now for Friday. The MAV is down to a high of 60F at LCI and 59 at BOS for Fri. At least Sun and Mon are looking sunny and seasonable.

[moneypitmike]

clearly can pick out the warm front boundary on the radar...so close yet so far

Still, I guess the drought maps will shape up a lot better than those that had been posted last month. And, we'll get out of the 40's after a couple days being stuck there. And, we might see the sun this weekend. So, all is looking up as we look ahead to the next few days.

[CoastalWx]

The GFS is really beginning to cave up here now for Friday. The MAV is down to a high of 60F at LCI and 59 at BOS for Fri. At least Sun and Mon are looking sunny and seasonable.

Yeah the euro throwing up AWT's lol. Hopefully some thunder late tonight and tomorrow...looks possible for sure. Wet begets wet coming up it seems.

[ski MRG]

Yeah the euro throwing up AWT's lol. Hopefully some thunder late tonight and tomorrow...looks possible for sure. Wet begets wet coming up it seems.

A complete failure for those that were calling for persistent drought and high temps. This weather is very similar to the weather in AK, coastal valley locations at least.

[CoastalWx]

A complete failure for those that were calling for persistent drought and high temps. This weather is very similar to the weather in AK, coastal valley locations at least.

Looks cool and wet overall during the next 2 weeks as well. Shows you why persistence is a horrible way to forecast.

[moneypitmike]

Looks cool and wet overall during the next 2 weeks as well. Shows you why persistence is a horrible way to forecast.

It would be great to have this be a long-term switch to at/below normals. After all, winter's right around the corner....

This sudden wet regime is wonderful for the plants and rivers. Gardners, landscapers, fishers, rafters rejoice.

[ski MRG]

Looks cool and wet overall during the next 2 weeks as well. Shows you why persistence is a horrible way to forecast.

Yep. I love when May stays cool and rainy. Each day that passes without uncomfortable heat brings us that much closer to the first snows of a new season.
Hopefully, like a few years ago, we will have seen the warmest temps of the year already. How awesome would it be if we had a cool and rainy summer? One can only hope.

[CoastalWx]

I think parts of the area could get rocked with thunder late tonight and again tomorrow aftn. Could be some good boomers banging around as Barry Burbank used to say.

[CoastalWx]

Yep. I love when May stays cool and rainy. Each day that passes without uncomfortable heat brings us that much closer to the first snows of a new season.
Hopefully, like a few years ago, we will have seen the warmest temps of the year already. How awesome would it be if we had a cool and rainy summer? One can only hope.

I absolutely do not want a rainy summer, but I also don't want the heat. If I lived in the middle of nowhere out there in the mtns then I could understand.

[ski MRG]

I absolutely do not want a rainy summer, but I also don't want the heat. If I lived in the middle of nowhere out there in the mtns then I could understand.

Not sure I follow the logic. There was one summer in the 1990's that featured a constant cool, NW flow that was only broken by bouts of rain. It was like a year without a summer. That was how summer should be. You were probably still playing with Tonka trucks so you won't remember but it was great.

[HubbDave]

0.6" in the gauge. Local winderground site got .77"


Sweet

[weathafella]

The Boston area is experiencing its annual bout of misery with cold and overcast wx. We're paying for the good wx of earlier ths spring. Let's hope it breaks soon but it's awful now.

[CoastalWx]

Not sure I follow the logic. There was one summer in the 1990's that featured a constant cool, NW flow that was only broken by bouts of rain. It was like a year without a summer. That was how summer should be. You were probably still playing with Tonka trucks so you won't remember but it was great.

LOL summer of '92. It sucked. Give me sunny and 75-80 every day, but who wants 60 and rain every day.

[CoastalWx]

Tonight and tomorrow is the type of setup that can drop like 2-3" of rain easily in a narrow area.

[CoastalWx]

Nice wx fail.


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[moneypitmike]

I think parts of the area could get rocked with thunder late tonight and again tomorrow aftn. Could be some good boomers banging around as Barry Burbank used to say.

LLL (Lightning for Litchfield Libations)?

[CoastalWx]

LLL (Lightning for Litchfield Libations)?

You guys down through LL look to be in the game.

[moneypitmike]

You guys down through LL look to be in the game.

I see SW CT, but not sold on up here--but I can't read things very well.