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Looks to start off warm and stormy.
May 2012 General Discussion
Started By
Chicago Storm
, 26 Apr 2012 02:14 AM
#1
Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:14 AM
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#2
Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:20 AM
Looks to start off warm and stormy.
Definitely looks this way especially on the 00z GFS
#4
Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:17 PM
I get back into the 60s on Wednesday, so that will be nice. Gotta keep those Hudson Bay highs away!
#5
Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:26 PM
I get back into the 60s on Wednesday, so that will be nice. Gotta keep those Hudson Bay highs away!
While keeping those Hudson Bay highs away will help, the really big fish to fry will be that darn Greenland High.
Until that goes away, we might as well get used to Omega Blocks and troughy weather.
#10
Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:07 PM
-NAO ftw. Again.
-AO ...of course that's right now. Current trend
#11
Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:10 PM
Sorry, -NAO/-AO ftw. heat dome builds out west again. Crazy. We go all winter with neither...
#12
Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:17 PM
Starting to remember why i never liked med/long range forcasting...i suck at it. Why does it have to be so boring?
#13
Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:27 PM
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-AO ...of course that's right now. Current trend
More like a positive trend and maybe then a negative trend. The negative trend has been overblown for months.
#14
Posted 26 April 2012 - 05:08 PM
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Interesting read from the 26th afternoon AFD from ARX, they mentioned the MJO several times during the last few months.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
345 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THEIR 500 MB FLOW. THIS
MAINLY A RESULT OF A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY AND VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AS A
RESULT...MADE NO CHANGES AT ALL TO THE ALL BLEND GRIDS.
WHILE THE DAY TO DAY MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT...THE COUPLED
FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 MODEL AS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF
MAY...AND IT DOES SHOW SKILL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...SO A BIT MORE
CONFIDENT THAT WE LIKELY SEE AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
The CPC is showing this:
CPC Temps:
Precip:
How often do you see that much confidence with above normal temps, and above normal precip??....Looks like a very active pattern setting up.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
345 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THEIR 500 MB FLOW. THIS
MAINLY A RESULT OF A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY AND VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AS A
RESULT...MADE NO CHANGES AT ALL TO THE ALL BLEND GRIDS.
WHILE THE DAY TO DAY MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT...THE COUPLED
FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 MODEL AS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF
MAY...AND IT DOES SHOW SKILL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...SO A BIT MORE
CONFIDENT THAT WE LIKELY SEE AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
The CPC is showing this:
CPC Temps:
Precip:
How often do you see that much confidence with above normal temps, and above normal precip??....Looks like a very active pattern setting up.
#15
Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:42 PM
More like a positive trend and maybe then a negative trend. The negative trend has been overblown for months.
Understatement and well said.
#16
Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:47 PM
-NAO ftw. Again.
Just like Summer 2010. Hot and stormy with a -NAO. It is funny because conventional wisdom says -NAO means a chill. But not always.
Geos
I'm not sure a -AO would have helped this past winter.
#17
Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:54 PM
Just like Summer 2010. Hot and stormy with a -NAO. It is funny because conventional wisdom says -NAO means a chill. But not always.
Geos
I'm not sure a -AO would have helped this past winter.
Probably not. MJO and NAO messed this winter up, I think.
#18
Posted 26 April 2012 - 10:35 PM
Just like Summer 2010. Hot and stormy with a -NAO. It is funny because conventional wisdom says -NAO means a chill. But not always.
Geos
I'm not sure a -AO would have helped this past winter.
A -NAO can mean different things at different times of year as the wavelengths change.
#19
Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:04 PM
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It's all about the sun angle ...
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- 610 posts
- Joined February 25, 2011
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It's interesting watching this evolve over the last few days. It has been trending warmer daily and moving all cold anomalies to the PNW.
#20
Posted 27 April 2012 - 01:51 PM
Looks like our warmest temps in about a month coming up next week. Low to mid 80s seem possible.
#21
Posted 27 April 2012 - 03:16 PM
Even if May averages near normal for temperatures, the spring average will still be near the top warmest. Very hard to wipe out the obscene March anomalies.
#22
Posted 27 April 2012 - 06:44 PM
iPhone weather now showing a very spring like forecast. Can't wait to see it littered with 90s and T-Storm graphics.
#23
Posted 27 April 2012 - 07:42 PM
Euro has a low temp near 70 next Thursday morning, so it looks to be humid as well as warm. It continues to look like there will be several chances to have MCSs moving across the area.
#24
Posted 27 April 2012 - 07:48 PM
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It's all about the sun angle ...
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May is going to be an epic torch after we relaxed for the month of April.
wk3.wk4_20120426.NAsfcT.gif 146.21K
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wk3.wk4_20120426.NAsfcT.gif 146.21K
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#25
Posted 27 April 2012 - 08:55 PM
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It's all about the sun angle ...
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- Joined February 25, 2011
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Euro showing a strip of 82-90 here on Wednesday.
#26
Posted 28 April 2012 - 12:42 AM
There looks to be some severe potential by the end of next week in the mid Mississippi valley area.
#28
Posted 28 April 2012 - 07:22 AM
May is going to be an epic torch after we relaxed for the month of April.
lol
#29
Posted 28 April 2012 - 09:12 AM
Interesting that no one's mentioning the Day 5 risk area that the SPC just put out. Not often that happens around here.
#30
Posted 28 April 2012 - 10:28 AM
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34161-early-may-1st-7th-severe-chances/Interesting that no one's mentioning the Day 5 risk area that the SPC just put out. Not often that happens around here.
#31
Posted 28 April 2012 - 11:09 AM
PWNEDlol
And Cromartie where are you seeing 82-90 for Wed on the Euro dude?
Looks like 70's at best..
#32
Posted 28 April 2012 - 12:22 PM
It would help if you were actually looking at Wed, not Tues.PWNED
And Cromartie where are you seeing 82-90 for Wed on the Euro dude?
Looks like 70's at best..
#33
Posted 28 April 2012 - 12:23 PM
PWNED
And Cromartie where are you seeing 82-90 for Wed on the Euro dude?
Looks like 70's at best..
That map you posted pretty much mirrors the 6-10 day outlook. The 8-14 day outlook shifts the plains ridge further west and a trough digs into the NE quarter of the country more. 70° would be perfect to get May started!
#34
Posted 28 April 2012 - 02:57 PM
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It's all about the sun angle ...
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- 610 posts
- Joined February 25, 2011
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PWNED
And Cromartie where are you seeing 82-90 for Wed on the Euro dude?
Looks like 70's at best..
Orange is 82-90.
12zecmwf.jpg 131.04K
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#35
Posted 28 April 2012 - 03:33 PM
12z Euro for Wednesday looks like 70s north of I-80 for the most part, maybe 80. Convection in the afternoon looks to move in and keep the bulk of the 80s south of the lakes.
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