389 replies to this topic

[CoastalWx]

I wanted to start a thread since this will combine wrn NY and PA. Models park wrap around TROWAL/.deformation band overhead. BUF now hitting this hard mentioning totals possibly up to a foot in higher elevations. LIs go below 0 on the GFS just east of BGM which may signal a heavy band...even possibly TSSN somewhere. Just a massive plume of high theta-e forced up and over 850-700 warmfront. I figure this can be a good thread for disco.

[phoenixny]

6z models are warmer. I bet the heaviest snow ends up in extreme SW NY and western PA. Very dynamic system and fun to track. CoastalWx is right, Someone gets 2"+ per hour rates. Where was this in Feb??? I would love this to be over CNY but we are leafed out pretty good as of today.

[Ginxy]

AFD
BUT THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES DUE TO FALLING
LIMBS UNDER THE WEIGHT OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW ON TREES WHICH
EXPERIENCED LEAF OUT 3-4 WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE AN EXTREMELY DAMAGING EVENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

[HubbDave]

Blizz should request a transfer to W PA for the duration

[blackngoldrules]

I don't know if this is really going to happen, but it's quite interesting seeing this on the models in late April. We had a snow event here in the Pittsburgh area several years ago that occurred in late April. It happened during the day and temps were in the low to mid 30s most of the day. It snowed all day but we barely even got an inch out of it on the grass, if that. That snow was pretty light though. The timing of when this hits will be critical. If the heavy wet snow occurs at night, this could really cause some damage and power outages with the trees in full bloom now.

[WNYLakeEffect]

Around 2.50" of QPF for KJHW on the 06z NAM, mostly as snow.

Tbh, I'd be more than happy with 4".

[heavy_wx]

The 06z NAM has over a foot of snow for BUF while the GFS has about 10". Both models show a changeover during the day to sleet or rain and then a change back to snow Tuesday evening. However, I'm not sure if the 850mb temperatures on Monday morning will be cold enough for snow since they are forecast to be only around -3C, so those amounts are probably too high.

[lakeeffectkid382]

The 06z NAM has over a foot of snow for BUF while the GFS has about 10". Both models show a changeover during the day to sleet or rain and then a change back to snow Tuesday evening. However, I'm not sure if the 850mb temperatures on Monday morning will be cold enough for snow since they are forecast to be only around -3C, so those amounts are probably too high.

Im sure a footnand even 10" is too high for BUF itself. Im thinking maybe 4-8" which would be incredible for this late in april. The only thing im worrying about is the models continue to creep west ever so slightly which also brings that rain/snow line further west. If it keeps creeping west BUF may find itself in more of a rain even with Erie to Cleveland getting the best snow. Thatll prob happen now that someone started a thread for the event itself which usually curses us.

[OSUmetstud]

just an FYI...Buffalo's record late significant snowfall is May 8, 1989 with 7.9".

[OSUmetstud]

It's a pretty cool evolution...basically a Miller A/B hybrid with southern stream system being intensified as the northern stream trough drops in and cuts off.

[Allsnow]

Nick are u in buffalo for this?

[OSUmetstud]

Nick are u in buffalo for this?

yeah i am

[OSUmetstud]

12z NAM is going to make a monster

[LakeEffectKing]

12z NAM is going to make a monster

NO SHEIT!! This will end up being the best solution yet for WNY/PA

Edit:.....for snow.....it is the worst solution for maintaining power...

[OSUmetstud]

NO SHEIT!! This will end up being the best solution yet for WNY/PA

Edit:.....for snow.....it is the worst solution for maintaining power...

I was surprised...only about 13,000 people lost power in the May 1989 snowstorm when BUF got 8" and ROC had almost 12". Maybe it won't be so bad. The leaves are small and budding..it probably makes a big difference compared to the big green leaves in October.

[LakeEffectKing]

I was surprised...only about 13,000 people lost power in the May 1989 snowstorm when BUF got 8" and ROC had almost 12". Maybe it won't be so bad. The leaves are small and budding..it probably makes a big difference compared to the big green leaves in October.

Probably a considerably larger issue for W. PA. I would have to imagine that the further south latitude (even a degree or two) has a significantly larger leaf area to collect snow. Nice for the weather to make it exciting for you while back in WNY!!

[LakeEffectKing]

I wonder how the "overly wrapped up" bias is being demonstrated with the NAM for this event?

[Paweatherguy1]

I wonder how the "overly wrapped up" bias is being demonstrated with the NAM for this event?

Given that the GFS showed not that much difference in it's solution, would that indicate not by much? I know that the NAM is incredibly amped and rapped up, but it appears that the models have really been honing in on a situation such as this.

Do I think there is going to be 2 inches of QPF for WNY/PA...no, but I think the potential is there for a warning level event for that entire area, which at this time of year is hard to believe, especially considering the historic warm stretch we have had.

Maybe this is me talking out of my *** though.

[blackngoldrules]

Probably a considerably larger issue for W. PA. I would have to imagine that the further south latitude (even a degree or two) has a significantly larger leaf area to collect snow. Nice for the weather to make it exciting for you while back in WNY!!

Yeah, the leaves are pretty much in full bloom on the trees now here. With the unusually warm March we had, the leaves were already starting to come in before it was even officially spring.

[Paweatherguy1]

Awesome, the NAM is stuck on hour 45 on the NCEP site right now...love it when that happens!

[Buffalo Bumble]

Have to admit, I've been watching this the last couple days hoping it would trend east and give WNY a glancing blow of light rain. After all these 70/80 degree days and mud-free ground, a snow/heavy rain is the last thing I want to see. I felt pretty good when the Euro was the only model to show a significant storm this far west, but the model agreement now on some sort of precip smackdown in our area is scary. I guess it's time to let the weenie in me take over and sit back and enjoy the show. We only need about 59 inches of snow from this storm to hit our seasonal average....

[north pgh]

I may be lucky because I have a lot of Oak trees on my street. The leaves are out by small. However a large maple across the street is almost fully leaved and I have a crabapple and 2 Bradley Pear trees in my side yard that have full leaves. Not to mention the 2 Large Magnolia Bushes that are out as well. I remember the October snow here we only received about 1 inch of snow when I woke up and the trees were hanging and a few small branches came down but the temps came up and the snow melted as it came down the rest of the day.

[lakeeffectkid382]

12z nam is snow to all rain for WNY. Pushes the 0c 850 line right to BUF. Erie to cleveland gets good snow. Knew it would happen.

[CoastalWx]

12z nam is snow to all rain for WNY. Pushes the 0c 850 line right to BUF. Erie to cleveland gets good snow. Knew it would happen.

I'd wait until the rest of the 12z guidance comes in before you throw in the towel. The NAM can wrap up a little aggressively at times, but can't really disagree too much either.

[OSUmetstud]

I'd wait until the rest of the 12z guidance comes in before you throw in the towel. The NAM can wrap up a little aggressively at times, but can't really disagree too much either.

The 00z Euro was much colder and less wrapped up...I'd bet the NAM is a bit too aggressive. I'd bet the 12z NAM would still be pretty nice for BUF...the dynamics are ridiculous.

[lakeeffectkid382]

Waiting anxiously for the gfs to come out.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like GFS brings low into Philly.

[lakeeffectkid382]

Gfs looks like 12z NAM. Snow to rain. Best snow from erie to Cleveland.

[OSUmetstud]

what a monster...going to be such a tough call for BUF.

[Amped]

Whoever said starting a thread would jinx it, busted.

Heaviest snow now looks like SW PA again, higher elevations of course.

[lakeeffectkid382]

Ill say 1-3 inch front end dump for BUF followed by about an inch of rain.

[OSUmetstud]

9z sref have about a 95% chance of 1"+, 85% chance of 4"+ 50% chance of 8"+, and a 20% Chance of 12"+...in BUF not too bad at this range.

[OSUmetstud]

GFS maintains surface temperatures near 1C for the entire storm...damn close call

[LakeEffectKing]

GGEM goes from around POU to ART....certainly a whiter scenario for BUF than the American models depict...(ie less wrapped up)

[OSUmetstud]

kinda interesting that the 09z SREFs are colder than the NAM or the GFS...keeps 850s sub -4C during the lion's share of the storm...more in line with the colder 00z ec from last night. 12z ec should be quite telling.