1689 replies to this topic

[tornadojay]

I think there is little doubt we are potentially re-writing the record book with the upcoming torch. I know it doesn't officially start for a few more days, but let's share observations, temp predictions, records that are in jeopardy and that are being broken, as we progress in time... also, some calls on when the pattern breaks. Unlike the progressive pattern we've been in all winter, it finally looks like we get into a sustained ridge pattern across the east... heck.. across most of the country.. we're all gonna bake.

I know we probably all have some lingering bad feelings towards winter and this might add insult to injury for some.. let's keep the frustrations in the banter thread.

[easternsnowman]

I think there is little doubt we are potentially re-writing the record book with the upcoming torch. I know it doesn't officially start for a few more days, but let's share observations, temp predictions, records that are in jeopardy and that are being broken, as we progress in time... also, some calls on when the pattern breaks. Unlike the progressive pattern we've been in all winter, it finally looks like we get into a sustained ridge pattern across the east... heck.. across most of the country.. we're all gonna bake.

I know we probably all have some lingering bad feelings towards winter and this might add insult to injury for some.. let's keep the frustrations in the banter thread.

March has really warmed up over time. I believe uncle w had a chart showing march temps decade by decade back in the 1800's compare it to today and the difference is astounding! I don't see this pattern breaking until late july or august.

[tornadojay]

By the way... we'll definitely want to hear about obs. from coastal locations throughout this period. With this being such an early stretch of anonomously warm weather.. one of the indirect stories to come out of this might be some of the wacky temperature contrasts between locations that are not too far from each other.

[Analog96]

By the way... we'll definitely want to hear about obs. from coastal locations throughout this period. With this being such an early stretch of anonomously warm weather.. one of the indirect stories to come out of this might be some of the wacky temperature contrasts between locations that are not too far from each other.

As long as the wind is not strong, this should get interesting. However, water temperatures never got nearly as cool this year as they normally do.

[tornadojay]

As long as the wind is not strong, this should get interesting. However, water temperatures never got nearly as cool this year as they normally do.

Excellent points and I was kinda thinking about that too... We do not want any large scale, synoptic west to west southwesterly flows... or else that kinda kills the water effect.. and yea.. you're right about the water temps... I guess I'm thinking just because how early in the season it is and the high degree of + anomaly, it'd be enough to make it interesting.. we'll see how it plays out.. the bigger story is gonna be the records and streaks..

Do we keep records on consecutive days above or below climo... I gotta think that we can seriously destroy a streak with regard to consecutive days above climo.. although, I haven't research it.. and I'm sure we've probably had some long streaks in the past.

[uncle W]

March has really warmed up over time. I believe uncle w had a chart showing march temps decade by decade back in the 1800's compare it to today and the difference is astounding! I don't see this pattern breaking until late july or august.

March stats...
March decade averages...
decade....temp...high...low...max...min...ave max ave min...precip...snow...B.S.
1870's.....37.0....44.1...30.5....na.....3........na.......na.......4.13"....4.2"....6.0"
1880's.....35.4....40.4...30.0....72.....5.....60.1.....12.8.....3.32"....5.9"..21.0"
1890's.....37.6....45.6...32.6....71.....7.....61.2.....16.1.....3.60"....8.2"..12.0"
1900's.....39.8....47.8...33.4....74.....7.....64.8.....15.5.....3.92"....5.2"....6.5"
1910's.....39.1....44.8...32.4....78.....7.....68.9.....16.7.....4.03"....7.9"..14.5"
1920's.....41.2....48.4...35.7....84...10.....72.6.....16.2.....3.45"....2.8"....7.3"
1930's.....40.2....45.2...36.5....77.....9.....67.2.....17.0.....4.13"....3.0"....5.6"
1940's.....41.6....51.1...35.1....86.....7.....70.1.....18.7.....3.63"....5.2"..18.1"
1950's.....40.5....43.4...36.4....71...11.....65.9.....20.6.....4.21"....6.2"..11.8"
1960's.....40.8....43.7...33.3....79.....8.....72.2.....17.9.....3.43"....6.1"..14.5"
1970's.....42.4....46.9...38.7....81...14.....69.2.....20.6.....4.27"....2.3"....5.0"
1980's.....42.8....45.8...36.7....82...13.....71.6.....16.9.....4.95"....3.0"....8.6"
1990's.....42.4....45.4...38.9....86...11.....72.8.....18.0.....4.52"....5.7"..10.6"
2000's.....42.7....47.2...39.4....78...11.....68.5.....18.8.....3.90"....3.5"....8.3"
2010's.....45.3....48.2...42.3....77...20.....75.5.....24.5.....8.44"....0.5"....1.0"

140yr .....40.3....45.7...35.0....78.....9.....68.1.....17.4.....3.96"....4.9"..10.7"
30yr ave..42.6....46.1...38.3....82...12.....71.0.....17.9.....4.46"....4.1"....9.2"
March extremes...
warmest.......coldest.........wettest.........driest.........snowiest...least snowiest
51.1 1945...30.0 1888...10.69" 2010...0.80" 2006...30.5" 1896.....0 1878
49.8 1946...30.5 1872...10.54" 1983...0.90" 1885...25.5" 1916.....0 1894
48.4 1921...30.6 1885...10.41" 1980...0.94" 1966...22.3" 1888.....0 1903
48.2 2010...32.3 1887.....8.79" 1876...1.02" 1910...21.5" 1914.....T 2008
47.8 1903...32.4 1916.....8.76" 1953...1.19" 1981...21.1" 1956.....T 2002
47.7 2000...32.6 1896.....7.72" 2001...1.25" 1905...19.2" 1941.....T 1995
46.9 1979...32.7 1883.....7.70" 1912...1.26" 1995...18.5" 1960.....T 1988
46.8 1977...33.3 1960.....7.41" 1977...1.33" 1927...17.4" 1967.....T 1986
46.4 1973...33.4 1900.....6.64" 1993...1.35" 1894...17.0" 1890.....T 1983
45.8 1985...34.1 1875.....6.47" 1913...1.46" 1986...15.9" 1958.....T 2010*
Warmest temperature...Coldest
86 3/29/1945......... 3 3/05/1872
86 3/31/1998......... 4 3/01/1869
85 3/13/1990......... 5 3/01/1875
84 3/21/1921......... 5 3/01/1884
84 3/28/1945......... 5 3/06/1872
83 3/20/1945......... 6 3/13/1888
82 3/16/1990......... 7 3/04/1943
82 3/28/1921......... 7 3/07/1890
82 3/30/1998......... 7 3/18/1916
82 3/29/1985......... 7 3/13/1885
............................ 8 3/19/1967

warmest monthly min
33 1942
30 1973
29 1931
29 2010
28 1903
27 1958
27 2008
26 1971
26 1945
26 1946
26 1941
26 1898
Coldest monthly max
49 1887
50 1893
53 1901
54 1881
55 1900
55 1906
56 1892
56 1970
57 1958
57 2001
Biggest snowfalls
21.0" 3/12-14/1888
18.1" 3/7-8/1941
14.5" 3/3-4/1960
14.5" 3/1-2/1914
12.0" 3/15-16/1896
11.8" 3/20-21/1958
11.6" 3/18-19/1956
10.6" 3/13-14/1993
..9.8" 3/21-22/1967
so far the minimum for March is 25 which is the 13th warmest March minimum if it stands...

[jm1220]

By the way... we'll definitely want to hear about obs. from coastal locations throughout this period. With this being such an early stretch of anonomously warm weather.. one of the indirect stories to come out of this might be some of the wacky temperature contrasts between locations that are not too far from each other.

The ocean is kinda like a pressure cooker on these kind of days. Almost always it eventually wins out and sends in a strong southerly breeze this time of the year. Whether it happens at noon or 2PM makes all the difference between whether we get close to Manhattan's temps or it's 15 or more degrees colder. I just hope we can keep the backdoors away-those make it truly miserable. But with a strong Bermudalike high, those won't happen.

[snowman21]

Do we keep records on consecutive days above or below climo... I gotta think that we can seriously destroy a streak with regard to consecutive days above climo.. although, I haven't research it.. and I'm sure we've probably had some long streaks in the past.

It doesn't really make sense to keep records for that. Yeah you can do it, but every ten years you essentially rewrite the record books as new normals are computed. What was a +20 day ten years ago may now only be considered a +18 day and so on as the latest normals are applied retroactively. Not only that, but the methods to compute normals and the places they do it for change almost every time, so it's tough to really use departure from normal as the basis of any records.

[easternsnowman]

It doesn't really make sense to keep records for that. Yeah you can do it, but every ten years you essentially rewrite the record books as new normals are computed. What was a +20 day ten years ago may now only be considered a +18 day and so on as the latest normals are applied retroactively. Not only that, but the methods to compute normals and the places they do it for change almost every time, so it's tough to really use departure from normal as the basis of any records.

Normals are going up all the time and the trend over the last 2 years is even higher than what it was over the previous 10 years let alone 30 year averages which seem unrealistic for today's climate.

[LocoAko]

I know this has probably been posted already, but from Southland Wx's facebook... crazy to see... I hope this comes to fruition!

[uncle W]

the warmest March days between the 8th and 18th in NYC...1990's heat came a week after near record cold with some snow...
85 13th 1990...
82 16th 1990...
77 15th 1990
77 16th 1935
77 18th 2011
77 18th 1989
76 08th 1987
76 16th 1945

[Isotherm]

What's quite amazing is how cold the rest of the globe is in comparison to North America. Below is the temp anomaly forecast for late next week off Dr. Ryan Maue's site

[bluewave]

I know this has probably been posted already, but from Southland Wx's facebook... crazy to see... I hope this comes to fruition!

The running 7 day temperature departures from the GFS ensembles ending around D10 are showing the same kind
of record warmth potential.

[Isotherm]

Right now I'm thinking we'll have a two-pronged attack of warmth -- the first surge is Monday/Tues, then I'm concerned about some marine influence or maybe a coastal backdoor mid week due to weaker flow and sfc high pressure in northeastern New England / SE Canada. Late week high pressure builds southward into the area, keeping temps from torching. On the backside of this high is our 80 degree potential IMO, from next weekend into the following week, I could see a string of 1-2 days, maybe even 3, with high temperatures well into the 70s w/ scattered low 80s popping up.

850's on Monday should be near +9c with a SW flow. I expect that MOS is underdone by several degrees right now. Middle 70s should be reached across most of the region for both Monday and Tuesday.

Mid week I'm concerned about a backdoor. Note the weak flow over the Northeast but weak sfc high pressure in NNE. Given the early spring cold ocean, that will be added push to strengthen the sfc wind easterly.




Following this, we may surge back up Thursday to 70 before cooling off a bit the end of the week w/ high pressure. Then it looks to me like the Eastern ridge will reach its climax next weekend into the following week, when a string of excessive temp departures are possible (not that this week wont be a torch - it will). But I think maximum temperatures for March should be hit in the second part of this torch.

[Isotherm]

Also I think LI and the NJ shore are likely to see more marine influence this week than they saw the past couple days. SWLY shouldn't be nearly as strong, which will allow sea breezes to develop and progress further inland.

[bluewave]

What's quite amazing is how cold the rest of the globe is in comparison to North America. Below is the temp anomaly forecast for late next week off Dr. Ryan Maue's site

Another example of weather patterns locking in and persisting that we have been experiencing more often.



This is a great presentation posted in another thread by LocoAko from a Rutgers Meteorology professor on this type of pattern.

http://ams.confex.com/ams/92Annual/flvgateway.cgi/id/19239?recordingid=19239

[pazzo83]

Those maps are just completely insane.

[earthlight]

There is a BDCF signal for Wednesday afternoon beginning to show up on most models..you can see it in the upper air alignment and the H85 temperatures as well as the surface wind direction.

[tornadojay]

850's per 12Z GFS do tend to support the idea of 70 degrees being attainable for most of the week.. the one exception, perhaps, being Friday, where it looks a tad cooler.

[tornadojay]

There is a BDCF signal for Wednesday afternoon beginning to show up on most models..you can see it in the upper air alignment and the H85 temperatures as well as the surface wind direction.

hmmm.. must be subtle... I've only looked at the GFS so far... which model has the best signal?.. maybe I'm not interpreting the signal correctly.

[Weathergun]

Also I think LI and the NJ shore are likely to see more marine influence this week than they saw the past couple days. SWLY shouldn't be nearly as strong, which will allow sea breezes to develop and progress further inland.

The 12z GFS have 10m WSW flow on Tuesday afternoon. 850mb between 6-8C. If correct, could see 65F+ down to coast:

 12zGFS102hrs.gif   40.61K   0 downloads

[earthlight]

hmmm.. must be subtle... I've only looked at the GFS so far... which model has the best signal?.. maybe I'm not interpreting the signal correctly.

It's much more apparent over New England on the GFS..but notice the isobars and then look at the 850 temperatures (over New England especially).

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f126.gif

Finally if you look at the 6z DGEX..it goes from 70 to 50 in 6 hours in New York City on Wednesday evening with the BDCF

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/f138.gif

[Weathergun]

The backdoor front on the 12z GFS comes in by Wed evening:

 12zGFS132hrs.gif   52.47K   3 downloads

[nycsnow]

Even today it's chilly but it still feels nice out

[pazzo83]

Even today it's chilly but it still feels nice out

It's very refreshing out.

[nycsnow]

It's very refreshing out.

I thought it was gonna feel colder not bad at all

[earthlight]

The backdoor front on the 12z GFS comes in by Wed evening:

Yeah that's what I figured...cringed as soon as I saw the maps on ewall. Probably 70 F at 2pm followed by a low cloud deck and east winds by 3pm...JFK would really suffer.

[pazzo83]

Yeah that's what I figured...cringed as soon as I saw the maps on ewall. Probably 70 F at 2pm followed by a low cloud deck and east winds by 3pm...JFK would really suffer.

Last April we had a ridiculous front come in where it went from 75ish to low/mid 50s in a matter of minutes. Looked like this:

[YanksFan27]

Early warmth = early start to severe season? I know in a patter that is dominated by a SE ridge thats not likely to happen, but perhaps if a strong enough low tracked to our west we could get a few strong cold fronts.

[Isotherm]

Most of the time backdoor fronts are a bit stronger than progged, push further SW than progged, and take longer to wash out as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see winds go northeasterly earlier on Wednesday, and maybe hang on for most of Thursday. Surface winds on the 12z GFS veer from the E/ENE late Wednesday to SE/SSE for Thursday morning, which is still a cool direction at this time of year. Mon/Tues look like the warmest days to me this week, then late next weekend into the first half of the following week (18th-21st).

[bluewave]

The warmest temperatures should come later on toward the end of the 6-10 day range as the trough is forecast
to drop in o the West and really pump the ridge in the East. That's when we will probably have a good shot
at 80's for the warmest spots.

[Isotherm]

Early warmth = early start to severe season? I know in a patter that is dominated by a SE ridge thats not likely to happen, but perhaps if a strong enough low tracked to our west we could get a few strong cold fronts.

Getting severe wx up here is much more difficult in the early/mid spring than is in Sept or even Oct - part of that is due to the colder ocean. Strong convection feeds off of warm/moist low levels, and most of the time, dew points are not sufficient to maintain intense T-storm action in March/April. Inversions often in place, but we can have some decent elevated convection in the spring. From my experience, severe threats during the Mar-Apr period are usually a bust in the Northeast, although there are exceptions. I recall a couple of interesting synoptics in late March w/ a strong sfc warm front setting off multicellular to even supercellular type convection. I forget what year this was - several years ago at least.

[Isotherm]

The warmest temperatures should come later on toward the end of the 6-10 day range as the trough is forecast
to drop in o the West and really pump the ridge in the East. That's when we will probably have a good shot
at 80's for the warmest spots.

Strongly agree, sun dresses will be out in full force early next week.

[bluewave]

Strongly agree, sun dresses will be out in full force early next week.

Yeah, I am thinking that we will be able to pull ahead of March 2010 for monthly average temperature.
We'll have to see how long the pattern persists after the 20th or so to know how close to the top we
can get.

[nycsnow]

It looks to be fairly dry for a while to