1689 replies to this topic

[CoastalWx]

Hey you can choose to do what you like. Sure it would be great if we got more snow, but reality says that is not going to happen. In the winter it's all I care about. We lost winter this year. It didn't happen and now that spring is here IMO it's time move on and not try and pull a magic snowstorm and cold shot out of the black hat. I don't know about you but I'd much rather have 70's and sunny in March than cloudy and 45 with mud if it can't snow. I feel very good about my bet. In fact let's go double or nothing if you'd like.

But see this period is a different. You don't need all these things in place like the NAO, MJO, etc to line up. Spring is a time where crazy cutoffs can happen. You'd be very surprise to go back and look at the pattern before some spring snows and see how warm it was prior. Of course this year is pretty anomalous, but to rule out snow based on your assumptions isn't the right idea. If it somehow works out this year, 8/10 times it likely would not. I'd take those odds.

[ChrisM]

Already so nice out, going outside for a few hours and enjoying it. DST screwed me up. 43 crisp degrees shooting for 56 later. I'll take it.

[Wx Hype]

But see this period is a different. You don't need all these things in place like the NAO, MJO, etc to line up. Spring is a time where crazy cutoffs can happen. You'd be very surprise to go back and look at the pattern before some spring snows and see how warm it was prior. Of course this year is pretty anomalous, but to rule out snow based on your assumptions isn't the right idea. If it somehow works out this year, 8/10 times it likely would not. I'd take those odds.

I understand it can happen. It has before and will again. I'm not basing on anything other than the pattern..it;s stable, it's not changing..and by April climo and time of year is on my side..and the odds of me winning are far greater than Will's

[snowNH]

What a beautiful day!!!!!! Get out there and enjoy!!!! 70s next week! Omg!!!! :sunshine: :Smiley: :Smiley:






Somebody had to do it

[weathafella]

I'm fearing the sea breeze this week. Otherwise off to the races. I just don't want to be sitting at 47 while Tips dancing through the tulips and 74.

[OKpowdah]

Wow the 06z GFS is incredible hot next week. 500mb heights up to 582dm and 850mb temps up to 16C!!!!

[dendrite]

Wow the 06z GFS is incredible hot next week. 500mb heights up to 582dm and 850mb temps up to 16C!!!!

Chance of a frisbee 90%.

[CoastalWx]

I understand it can happen. It has before and will again. I'm not basing on anything other than the pattern..it;s stable, it's not changing..and by April climo and time of year is on my side..and the odds of me winning are far greater than Will's

That's fine, but this time of year features a lot more vulnerability. I don't think anyone is saying that this weather isn't nice. I think everyone would rather have 70 than 45 and drizzle except for Logan11.

Hopefully this weather isn't just a tease. I fear lousy periods of weather in April and May.

[CoastalWx]

Chance of a frisbee 90%.

Chance of those guys wearing deodorant 10%.

[OKpowdah]

Chance of a frisbee 90%.

Absolutely.

Just amazing

[ORH_wxman]

That's fine, but this time of year features a lot more vulnerability. I don't think anyone is saying that this weather isn't nice. I think everyone would rather have 70 than 45 and drizzle except for Logan11.

Hopefully this weather isn't just a tease. I fear lousy periods of weather in April and May.

Kevin doesn't know climo very well...you'll just have to let him ramble on...if a snow event threatens, he'll be right back to wishcasting 6-10 for Tolland.

[OKpowdah]

Chance of those guys wearing deodorant 10%.

Ew

Any of these would have been better / much more accurate

Chance of shoes: 10%
Chance of shirt: 10%
Chance of dreadlocks: 90%
Chance of hemp necklaces: 90%
Chance of hackysacks: 90%

[dendrite]

Wow the 06z GFS is incredible hot next week. 500mb heights up to 582dm and 850mb temps up to 16C!!!!

It's just for comical purposes this far out, but here's the 228hr sounding for ASH from the 6z run. With low level west flow that inversion up to H85 would get wiped out. We'd probably mix down temps to the mid 80s at the sfc. lol

 gfsmarchhot.gif   25.5K   1 downloads

[Wx Hype]

That's fine, but this time of year features a lot more vulnerability. I don't think anyone is saying that this weather isn't nice. I think everyone would rather have 70 than 45 and drizzle except for Logan11.

Hopefully this weather isn't just a tease. I fear lousy periods of weather in April and May.

April is a lock for wire to wire torch..May might be a litle cooler..but by then it's May and we'll take our chances

[OKpowdah]

Analogous to the October snow storm?

Terrible summer ahead

[Wx Hype]

Kevin doesn't know climo very well...you'll just have to let him ramble on...if a snow event threatens, he'll be right back to wishcasting 6-10 for Tolland.

Since you are cocky, confident and so sure it will snow..throw your balls on the table...double or nothing??

[SquatchinNY]

Chance of a frisbee 90%.

What do you mean by frisbee?

[Logan11]

Couple back door threats in there though. Definitely happening midweek and hints of another around early next week. Still above normal, but the difference between 50-55 and 75 during those periods. Mainly places like KGAY that could really be affected. Less so CT.

I bet BDL tickles 62 -63

[powderfreak]

What's the largest possible lapse rate you can get in the low levels?

Up here we've been seeing around 8-10F/1,000ft. 23F at 3,900ft and 42F at 1,500ft. I thought it was a mistake, then I looked at Sugarbush and their live temps are showing 23F at summit (4,000ft) and 41F at the base (1,500ft).

These are like 18-19F differences over 2,000ft-2,500ft.

[ORH_wxman]

Analogous to the October snow storm?

Terrible summer ahead

We had that ridiculous warm spell in early 2009....April 2009 where BDL hit 90F...then we all know what happened that summer. However, summer of 2002 was hot and we had a very anomalous warm spell early that spring too. I'm not sure there is much of a correlation....2002 did have a miserably cold May and early June though after that April heatwave before we turned to warmer weather in July and August.

IIRC March 2000 had a really big warm spell and then the summer was freezing. I've seen it go both ways.

[ORH_wxman]

Since you are cocky, confident and so sure it will snow..throw your balls on the table...double or nothing??

How about double or nothing for any measurable snow....not >2"? You said we are done, so why the 2" limit?

[dendrite]

What do you mean by frisbee?

The disc. The bee. The hippie saucer.

[Logan11]

No, even I would probably take a nice dry sunny 70 over 45 and drizzle. I'm here for snow threats..not cold rain.

I really start to root for back doors in like later May and June when it starts to save us from heat and humidity. I take 60's and BKN with scattered pop up convective showers =(i.e. "old" England type summer wx) any day over 85-90 and muggy.

That's when I start to get into debates with the summer lovers like Jerry, etc. who actually enjoy some of that heat junk.



uponvec

That's fine, but this time of year features a lot more vulnerability. I don't think anyone is saying that this weather isn't nice. I think everyone would rather have 70 than 45 and drizzle except for Logan11.

Hopefully this weather isn't just a tease. I fear lousy periods of weather in April and May.

[dendrite]

What's the largest possible lapse rate you can get in the low levels?

Up here we've been seeing around 8-10F/1,000ft. 23F at 3,900ft and 42F at 1,500ft. I thought it was a mistake, then I looked at Sugarbush and their live temps are showing 23F at summit (4,000ft) and 41F at the base (1,500ft).

These are like 18-19F differences over 2,000ft-2,500ft.

Is the temp updated? 4kft on Mt Wash is up to 28F and there's a little inversion above that into the low 30s at 4300ft.

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/mesonet/?z=3

Typically it's dry adiabatic (~5.5F/1kft), but near the sfc you can get superadiabatic with strong heating.

[CoastalWx]

April is a lock for wire to wire torch..May might be a litle cooler..but by then it's May and we'll take our chances

It very well might be above normal, but this post could be bump worthy.

[Typhoon Tip]

We'll have to watch to make sure Saturday isn't ruined by warm frontal clouds or even showers. Next week is also not set in stone if this high amplitude flow allows for cutoffs to the south like the euro op shows.

It is March/April season of ding-donging so the possibility cannot be precluded, sure... But that affectation from the Euro is new, that I idea of a weakness west of Bermuda disrupting the continental return flow scenario. I'd like to see some continuation of that in future runs; my bet is that it gets muted after a couple of runs of presentation ... sooner or later.

[CT Rain]

MET and MAV numbers both 70 at BDL for Tuesday.

It's too bad LitchfieldLibations stopped posting when the weather was finally getting beautiful!

[Wx Hype]

How about double or nothing for any measurable snow....not >2"? You said we are done, so why the 2" limit?

Because you could get a freak squall or something.. 2 inches generally wold mean a widespread snowfall..Balls in..or balls out?

[powderfreak]

Is the temp updated? 4kft on Mt Wash is up to 28F and there's a little inversion above that into the low 30s at 4300ft.

http://www.mountwash...er/mesonet/?z=3

Typically it's dry adiabatic (~5.5F/1kft), but near the sfc you can get superadiabatic with strong heating.

I'm an idiot... just refreshed the Mansfield summit station page and its 27F now on the MesoWest site.

http://www.wrh.noaa....NV1&banner=gmap

I just saw that one and then saw Sugarbush's live temp showing the same thing and assumed something odd was happening. I'd never seen that big of a difference between base and summit so that's why I'd asked. Turned out, its not as big as first thought. 15F for just over 2,000ft is still solid but only 6.5-7F. I also wonder if strong westerly winds are adding some compressional heating both here and at Sugarbush which are located on the eastern bases of these mountain slopes.... and that's whats helping create the larger differences.

[Logan11]

FYI ....had 46" here this miserable season, but only half that just 23 miles east and 740 feet lower. I had posted this on the Upstate side.

Hey ALB currently holding the #2 least snowy position. Only the 13.8" in 1912-13 was more snowless.Several in the upper 20's".

So far this season ALB stands at: 23.3 inches. I believe they need about 4 " inches to slip into the #3 spot so quite doubtful.

On the other hand:

Top 10 April Snowstorms

Rank/Total Storm Amount/Date

1 17.7" 4/6-7/1982
2 13.3" 4/9/2000
3 13.0" 4/1-2/1924
4 11.3" 4/8-10/1974
5 11.0" 4/3/1891
6 8.8" 4/19/1983
7 8.4" 4/8-11/1907
8 7.6" 4/9-10/1979
9 7.2" 4/3-4/1955
10 6.9" 4/13-14/1950
tie 6.9" 4/10-11/1942

You might say where is 4/1/97, but ALB fought with the typical boundary level issues, etc. there where the dynamics and intensity were lacking on the northwest fringe. It was no big deal, but the Catskills came in with three feet.

[OKpowdah]

Concord is still only 2.9" below normal snowfall

[Typhoon Tip]

If he doesn't think its going to snow again in his BY, he normally tries to bring the rest of the region down with him and when he's in winter mode but on the line, he tries to lump himself in with ORH hills like in the 3/1 event when it was pretty clear he'd get sleet bombed.

I feel pretty good about my bet...esp with the ensembles building a bit of a western ridge by 3/25...perfect for short wavelength cutoff season.


Big time torch in the meantime though.

Agreed Will ... I don't care what seasonal bias' may have played out any given year leading up to March, one is insane to preclude snow happening at all, IN a March.

That's ...absurd... to the point where I think the intent there isn't so much to say what one really believes, but to try and coax words of soothing encouragement to elixir a real resentment/frustration over having to endure sensible weather that isn't in one's particular bevvy of interest areas.

The response to those post should be, 'suck it up and do something else to fulfill your void'.

When you read a post like, "Blah blah blah since it won't snow until next year", and have to read them on March 10th of any given year, the interpretation of all that encoded babble is really: "Please say something to make the anxiety and frustration go away; I really don't want it to be warm and beautiful and euphoric in March, I want it to snow. I want, I want, I want, I want, because we all know, that weather exists because of what I want, and since this era is proving that might not be true, it is proving more than I can bear. Please make it stop and say something to give me hope? Wah wah wah"

So the correct response to "Blah blah blah since it won't snow until next year", should really not be a lengthy discourse into the scientifically meritous reasons why it can still snow despite the current nagging hate for what the models are indicating with above median confidence. The correct response should therefore be, 'Saying it won't snow again on March 10 of any given year is not going to actually make it snow - just stop.'

[eekuasepinniW]

I really start to root for back doors in like later May and June when it starts to save us from heat and humidity.

Reported.

[dendrite]

Reported.

47.1

[Typhoon Tip]

It's a fascinating evolution from D5 through early 7... The last few runs of the GFS (operational) just refuse to dampen that ejecting SW impulse and instead conserves a lot of potency as it rides up and over the fledgling semi-permanent SE heat wall, What winds up happening is a snow event over far eastern Ontario that might even extend into northern/middle Maine, while it is comparatively balmy down here in SNE. ...But that's the GFS.