232 replies to this topic

[Cheeznado]

I know there is a thread on the main discussion page but though we could begin to discuss here. KY/TN are realy under the gun again IMO on Friday, with an overnight threat into GA/Carolinas, then in the south GA/FL/eastern Carolinas zone Saturday. Still some model differences to be hashed out, but given how the curent system has overperformed and the scary looking LL shear on the forecast soundings especially on the NAM, I would be surprised if there were not some strong/violent tornadoes with this event.

[Southern Track]

I'm really surprised the local and national mets aren't talking as much about this weekends severe threat. It looks more ominous than the current threat with the models.

[jburns]

NWS Raleigh doesn't even mention thunder in their weekend forecast.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[metalicwx366]

The NWS for here doesn't even mention a threat. They say the dynamics will be mostly in the Carolina north of our forecast area.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

The 12Z GFS is concerning to me for MS/AL/GA/TN and eventually the Carolinas Friday afternoon through Saturday. It has developed a secondary SLP that tracks from S AR through TN, which will back surface winds and yield better 0-1KM helicity values with longer clockwise hodo signatures. 12Z GFS soundings shows LI down to -7 across the Deep South with 60+ Tds and CAPE up near 1250 J/KG. Combine that with strengthening LLJ AOA 50Kts at 850MB, and WSW at 500MB with jet AOA 90Kts, and backed Surface winds supports discrete supercell thunderstorms with tornadoes. 0-3KM helicity values 300-450 M2/S2, and 0-1KM helicity values AOA 300 M2/S2 with LCL heights <500M will support an elevated tornado risk...

[shaggy]

Raleighs AFD

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT:
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR SATURDAY...
ON SATURDAY THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND RIDE
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NUMEROUS SIGNS POINT TO A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT MOVING THROUGH THE TRIAD AFTER
DAYBREAK AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INCREASE PW`S TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. 60-70 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG
WITH 50 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. LONG CLOCKWISE
HODOGRAPHS SWEEP OUT A LARGE AREA INDICATING HIGH VALUES OF HELICITY
EARLY ON THEN STRAIGHTEN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INDICATING SUPERCELLS
OUT AHEAD OF A MORE LINEAR QLCS FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LOW INITIALLY BUT WILL PICK UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BECOMING A
LARGER FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. WITH THE PARENT LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH...FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE SLOW. STRONGER STORMS IN THE TRIAD SHOULD START
AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN FOR THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EAST A BIT
LATER ON AND CONTINUE THROUGH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

[it*has*an*i]

The NWS for here doesn't even mention a threat. They say the dynamics will be mostly in the Carolina north of our forecast area.

To your west the NWS offices along the gulf coast say maybe some severe storms. Not sure whether there is a possibility of this increasing if the secondary low develops further south as the GFS shows.

NWS in Mobile mentions the possibility for damaging winds/hail

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
311 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

NWS Tallahassee sounds a little unsure

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
608 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

[lilj4425]

NWS Raleigh doesn't even mention thunder in their weekend forecast.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Same here with GSP. Just showers.

[audioguy3107]

Looks like for those of us in N. Georgia, time to start tracking the next system coming in on Friday seeing as how the current line is weakening into a few showers. N. Georgia storm shield alive and well tonight. For Friday though, thoughts turn to whether or not a second surface low will attempt to form in the lower Mississippi valley as some of the models have shown. If this scenario does occur, could be looking at a more volatile event than this.

[Dunkman]

[andyhb]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS
MS...AL...TN...KY...INDIANA...OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ARKLAMISS REGION
ENEWD TO CAROLINAS AND NWD TO SWRN PA...INDIANA AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY ATTM...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT. RESULT THROUGH DAY-1 WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS...MOVING EWD TO CENTRAL CONUS DAY-2. BY
START OF PERIOD...EXPECT NRN-STREAM MID-UPPER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER
ND/MB BORDER REGION...AND BASAL 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
4-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT PERTURBATION...LOWER-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS KS. VORTICITY
FIELDS WITH LATTER TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL-CONNECTED...
EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM ERN IA/NRN IL
REGION TO ERN NM BY 3/00Z. BY 3/12Z...EXPECT MID-UPPER LOW OVER LH
OR ADJOINING PORTIONS ONT...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER LOWEST SEGMENT OF
OH RIVER...OK...AND SRN NM.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW IMPINGING ON SWRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY/NRN
LA SHOULD MOVE BACK N AS WARM FRONT THIS PERIOD...WRN PORTION OF
WHICH WILL ATTACH WITH SFC FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER MO BY 2/12Z. LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN LOWER MI BY 3/00Z...THEN
OCCLUDE AND BECOME STACKED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTEX BY END OF PERIOD.
WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH PERIOD. COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW SHOULD
START PERIOD OVER OZARKS...SERN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. BY
3/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN INDIANA/WRN OH...SERN AR...AND
MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. BY 3/12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN VA...NRN GA...AND SRN AL.

...OZARKS...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AND AL TO OH VALLEY STATES...
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY BE CARRY OVER FROM LATE
DAY-1 PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OZARKS...LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
REGIONS...WITH FAVORABLE CAPE ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR HAIL.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SFC-BASED BY
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SVR. OTHER SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING...COVERING LONG SWATHS WITH
THEIR SVR THREATS OVER ANY GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS
INCREASING FROM MID 50S OVER OH TO MID 60S OVER PORTIONS MS/AL. IN
TANDEM WITH DIURNAL SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE 250-500
J/KG OVER PORTIONS OH/INDIANA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER
PORTIONS TN/KY...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT FARTHER S DUE TO
INFLUENCES OF STABLE LAYERS ALOFT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODES THIS FAR OUT...EXPECT
WEAK CINH...BROADLY FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...AND
RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THAT
SETTING. AS SUCH...NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX
MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND
LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...
SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA IS BEING INTRODUCED...DRIVING CATEGORICAL MDT
RISK WHERE OVERLAID WITH RELATIVELY DENSE 45% TOTAL-SVR PROBABILITY.

...CAROLINAS...
INITIALLY SEPARATE SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY CONNECT WITH ERN FRINGES OF LARGER SVR
AREA LATE IN PERIOD AS LATTER REGIME SHIFTS EWD. SRN BRANCH OF STG
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM RESIDE IN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL
LIFT...AND THEREFORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
HEATING...PRESENCE OF REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE...AND
WEAK MLCINH SHOULD PERMIT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP IN REGIME OF 60S F WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS. ACCORDINGLY
ADJUSTED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG LATE-AFTERNOON MLCAPE
POSSIBLE...JUXTAPOSED WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MAIN THREAT MAY BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED HAIL ALSO EXPECTED.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK...MAIN
QUESTIONS BEING COVERAGE/DURATION OF FAVORABLE STORM MODES.

..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2012

[metalicwx366]

Now our NWS mentions a possibilty of a few strong to severe thunderstorm with hail and strong winds but not really much. Real story will be the folks in the moderate risk area.

[audioguy3107]

This is what we really need to watch for here in the SE where we'll be further away from the main forcing up north:

Frmo BHM disco

MODELS NOW INDICATING A SECOND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT
AND TRACKING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE ALREADY
STRONG WIND PROFILES...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AND INCREASE
A TORNADO THREAT

[eyewall]

RAH has backed down some:

SEVERE THREAT:
A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH AT LEAST
SOME SFC-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LITTLE OR NO
LOWER/UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THROUGH ~00Z
SATURDAY (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO SCENARIOS
WHERE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP. 1) A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN
WSW/SW FLOW ALOFT TRACKS OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AFTER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED (POSSIBLE BUT VERY
DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS RANGE)...OR 2) AN MCS OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ORIGINAL FORCING MECHANISMS INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRESENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. -VINCENT

BOTTOM LINE...A THREAT (PROBABLY A SLIGHT RISK) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION FOR 3-6 HOURS TIME STARTING
IN THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY... THEN TRACKING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY. QPF OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WILL BE
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. TURNING COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY EAST... AND A CHANCE OF RAIN WEST.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT QPF POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY 65-75 NW TO SE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT 40S WEST/LOWER 50S SE.
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 50S SUNDAY.

[WeatherNC]

12z Euro does close off a secondary low Saturday morning, 12z. 1004mb centered east of Athens GA near the SC boarder, prior to and after it is an open wave traversing the front. WFO's are likely backing off given the trend in most of the guidance over the last several days in not deepening the parent low as much, no where close to the nam superbomb 970-something runs from yesterday. Euro has a 998'ish low centered over MO 7am tomorrow, deepens 20mb in 24 hrs with a position near northern Lake Huron 7am Saturday. Moderate hatch looks good, maybe extended east some into northern GA based on this run.

[WeatherNC]

Per Allan's h5 tropical maps, 996 central MO 7am tomorrow, 975 SE Ontario 7am Saturday, 1003 mb Meso low east of Athens GA same time, lack of sufficient heating at the surface could be a big issue given timing.

[HWY316wx]

http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=webbriefing

It's not everyday that you see these web briefings about a major outbreak of severe wx. My son and MIL are going to be right in the middle of it.

[WeatherNC]

CIPS analog guidance supports a major svr wx outbreak tomorrow going into Saturday...

http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php

[shaggy]

CIPS analog guidance supports a major svr wx outbreak tomorrow going into Saturday...

http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php

I'm hoping for something decent. I'm off both days and will be chasing anything within a few counties.

[eyewall]

If I didn't have a gig tomorrow evening I would be on the way to TN. Hopefully we can get something in central NC this spring (outside of HSLC nocturnal cheesers).

[Solak]

I know there's not much talk here in the SE about tomorrow, but what little there is is 100% better than the p*ssing match going on on the main board. *sigh*

[eyewall]

I'm hoping for something decent. I'm off both days and will be chasing anything within a few counties.

I would be on the way to TN right now if I were you .

[Solak]

From NWS Nashville... in part...

.DISCUSSION...A BIG SEVERE WX OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR MID TN
FRIDAY. STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE. SPC CONTINUES TO POST A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE MID STATE. THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE
WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE SEVERE THREAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES SINCE
APRIL 27, 2011. THIS EVENT COULD BE ONE OF THE GREATER IMPACT
EVENTS IN THE PAST FEW YEARS. THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE STRONGLY ADVISED
TO TAKE THIS THREAT VERY SERIOUSLY.

[shaggy]

I would be on the way to TN right now if I were you .

I should have clarified that I am off both afternoons. I'm pulling a 12 hour nightshift tonight getting off at 730am. So i'll go home and sleep till noon and hope and pray I see some sort of storm fire somewhere nearby that looks chase worthy.

[ryan1234]

I would be willing to bet that the SPC puts out a High Risk for their 2am update. I really hope that we see something here in the Piedmont. These last 2 events were awful. I barely even got any rain from them. Kinda gets old after a while. But hey, 3rd times a charm..... right?

[brettjrob]

00z NAM is really pumping the instability for western and middle TN and down into northern MS/AL. Low-level shear, while not perfect (ala 4/27), is more than enough when dealing with such anomalously unstable conditions for this region in late winter. Right now I'd place the bullseye for the tornado threat in a 100-mile radius around BNA, although areas closer to the low (S IN, SW OH) will have the advantage of stronger and more backed low-level flow.

TBH, I'd be a little surprised if SPC pulls out a HIGH on the first outlook tonight. If surface-H85 winds were forecast to be backed about 20-30 more degrees throughout the entire warm sector, I'd be more on board with that idea.

[JoMo]

SPC outlook is out.

http://www.spc.noaa....k/day1otlk.html

[ATL_Militarypolice]

Day 1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL
GULF STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...SWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...

A VERY STRONG JET CORE AT MID-HIGH LEVELS WILL INTENSIFY IN EXCESS
OF 110KT AS IT OVERSPREADS SRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER TODAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL OK EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD AND DEEPEN OVER MO INTO CNTRL IL BY MID DAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RECOVERING RAPIDLY ACROSS ERN OK ATTM
WITH 60F DEW POINTS NOW SPREADING NORTH OF I-40. THIS MOISTURE
SURGE WILL ADVECT INTO MO BY SUNRISE AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AHEAD OF SFC LOW
ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION NEWD
WITH RECOVERING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW SEVERE WARM ADVECTION STORMS TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT EARLY...A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS MOISTENS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN SUCH THAT PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
ACROSS IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN IL
SUGGEST MUCAPE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WITHIN AN
OTHERWISE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION SHOULD THEN EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
IND/KY BEFORE DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS TN INTO
NRN AL/MS.

AFTER THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
VALLEY REGION...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES
AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM
ACROSS THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. WITH TIME A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE
COULD EMERGE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.

...GULF STATES...

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT APPEARS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE AS WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTERS MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES.
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR
MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS.

...LOWER MI...

WITH THE SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LOWER MI
AFTER 00Z THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF LOW
TOPPED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT BUT WITH INTENSE FORCING IT/S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A
SEVERE SQUALL LINE COULD EXTEND INTO SERN LOWER MI DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW/SMITH.. 03/02/2012

[19jpc]

This situation appears to be becoming a very serious one. The latest data continues to show a possible major outbreak. Let's just hope this doesn't play out.

[Dunkman]

I'm completely shocked this thread still has 1 page. The Ohio Valley version is at 8. I guess the winter beat the weather enjoyment out of a lot of people, or we've lost most of our mets or something. Anyway, new SPC outlook was as strong as a moderate can be and an upgrade to high risk seems likely tomorrow given the probabilities in this outlook and the size of the moderate area.

[Tennessee Snow]

Looking at all the current data and reading other severe storm specialists opinions leads me to think our area could be in store for the worst severe weather since 4/27 of last year.I'm in no way comparing the possibilities to that day in regards to all the widespread damage but people in the Chattanooga area are being apathetic for the most part in regards to "possible severe/tornadic activity.

I love good storms but hope any damage will be limited or non-existent.

[Met1985]

Ya reading on some other forums there seems to be some urgency about how bad this could really get. The Atmosphere at this time seems very ripe to build some monster storms.

[snowstorm2011]

I'm completely shocked this thread still has 1 page. The Ohio Valley version is at 8. I guess the winter beat the weather enjoyment out of a lot of people, or we've lost most of our mets or something. Anyway, new SPC outlook was as strong as a moderate can be and an upgrade to high risk seems likely tomorrow given the probabilities in this outlook and the size of the moderate area.

Probably because the worst of the weather will be in AL,TN, KY, etc... not many people on this forum from those states. Outside of extreme NW GA, I don't see this being a big event for most of GA. This is your typical severe weather event where things are going strong in AL and TN and just die out once they hit the GA border. I've seen it happen 10 million times and I see no reason why this will be any different. Atlanta TV meteorologist Mike Francis, who is new to GA, was very puzzled by this and he has come to the conclusion that it is due to a mini-wedge that is often in place in GA. Either that, or it's those huge 1,500 feet mountains in East AL that destroy the storms.

[19jpc]

Not trying to be an A$$ but Gainesville Georgia has seen two major tornadoes one of those killing 230. As you know Gainesville is in NEGA. I live in Dahlonega and your correct it's amazing how storms ALMOST always die out. I tend to think the wedge has lots to do with it not so much Alabama mountains

[toxictwister00]

Probably because the worst of the weather will be in AL,TN, KY, etc... not many people on this forum from those states. Outside of extreme NW GA, I don't see this being a big event for most of GA. This is your typical severe weather event where things are going strong in AL and TN and just die out once they hit the GA border. I've seen it happen 10 million times and I see no reason why this will be any different. Atlanta TV meteorologist Mike Francis, who is new to GA, was very puzzled by this and he has come to the conclusion that it is due to a mini-wedge that is often in place in GA. Either that, or it's those huge 1,500 feet mountains in East AL that destroy the storms.

Well considering he came from Little Rock, AR prior to coming to Atlanta, it makes sense that he wouldn't know that. He's got a lot to learn about N. GA weather, it's worlds apart from AR.