21 replies to this topic

[Ji]

http://fortysouthwx....6286#entry36286

[Ian]

Wow I didn't know you could make that thought out a post. I might have to subscribe to Ji weather.

[CheesyPoofs]

Wow I didn't know you could make that thought out a post. I might have to subscribe to Ji weather.

I think Ji's post is going to cause Howard to leave Fortysouth

[chris21]

Did Howard leave American after the Feb 10th, 2010 debacle. I remember he was really gung ho on that being less than two inches for us basically until the superband developed at 4 am for which he really got hammered.

[Grothar of Herndon]

Ji, like Big Daddy, will not tolerate mendacity. LOL!

[Bob Chill]

That was a pretty strong, accurate, and respectful criticism. Ji has had a banner year in some respects. Good work Ji and please continue to visit DT's facebook page. There have been some epic posts there as well.

[mitchnick]

I love the "forget the math" part when Howard speaks about temps
I mean, come on, forget the math? isn't that was a temp forecast is all about, the math? lol

[ravensrule]

http://fortysouthwx....6286#entry36286

One day one of these forecasters you go after, is going to go postal on you.

[PhineasC]

His grading methods have always been horrible. I sometimes enjoy his folksy "follow the barometer" old-timey forecasting methods, but they really are just for fun and don't lead to good forecasts.

[zwyts]

I think the B/B- was for temps, not overall grade...Howard and I have never totally agreed on the grading method of these outlooks....But he is pretty consistent on how he grades them....KA did really well on the non-winter of 2007-08...Not so good on this one, but he is in good company...I haven't seen one outlook that didn't bust pretty badly....I don't think his temp call was awful...i'd give it a C/C+......I'm more concerned about his recent snow pattern of going for a big winter and missing...2005-06, 2008-09, 2011-12, he went for big winters and missed and in 2009-10 when we actually went big he also missed...Temps are really tough to do in DC...and I think overall he does as good as anyone with temps....

[zwyts]

I think it also needs to be mentioned that KA now has a body of work spanning 11 winters with a specific monthly/seasonal temp and overall snow call for each and only one call made each year in late September....Does anyone else have a body of work like that we can link to?....It is easy to say he is good or bad or ok, but where is the point of reference?...If someone is really good at seasonal forecasting, can we get a link to to each of their forecasts over a period of time?

[Bob Chill]

...I haven't seen one outlook that didn't bust pretty badly....

Alot of you guys have been around these types of forums alot longer than me but I've been around since 06. One thing I've learned is that when things behave even relatively "normally" irt to enso, it can be much easier to have a decent seasonal forecast. It's the "odd behavior" years like this one that can be almost impossible to predict. This winter's NAO average is going to be a record +. At least since the 1950+ dataset. It's a volitile index too so I don't know how a lr forecaster can key in early on and predict such anomalous events.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that this is a bad year to be very critical of lr forecasters that do have some decent skill. CFS and euro weeklies seemed to do ok though with the warmth but none of us wanted to believe them (and rightfully so because making a lr forecast based on those models is precarious at best).

[Ji]

I think the B/B- was for temps, not overall grade...Howard and I have never totally agreed on the grading method of these outlooks....But he is pretty consistent on how he grades them....KA did really well on the non-winter of 2007-08...Not so good on this one, but he is in good company...I haven't seen one outlook that didn't bust pretty badly....I don't think his temp call was awful...i'd give it a C/C+......I'm more concerned about his recent snow pattern of going for a big winter and missing...2005-06, 2008-09, 2011-12, he went for big winters and missed and in 2009-10 when we actually went big he also missed...Temps are really tough to do in DC...and I think overall he does as good as anyone with temps....

If you look at this forecast +1 +2 -3...that implies a winter that is normal to slighly above normal at best. This was a historically warm winter. I dont see how thats a C/C+

C+ would of been like +2 +2 normal

[Ji]

I think Howard grading KA is a bad thing. I dont think KA would even grade himself B/B- for temps. No matter what KA does...Howard gives him a B. Basically KA called for a very snowy and relatively cold .It was historical warm and snowless

[winterymix]

I think Howard grading KA is a bad thing. I dont think KA would even grade himself B/B- for temps. No matter what KA does...Howard gives him a B. Basically KA called for a very snowy and relatively cold .It was historical warm and snowless

February temps and seasonal snowfall (as in "almost none") killed the KA seasonal outlook.

In reality, his choice to release his ideas in September is unscientific.

[MDstorm]

I have to agree with Ji on this one. Now I don't expect anyone to nail each monthly departure on the nose or hit the exact snowfall, but a winter forecast should score on the "feel" of the season. In other words, the forecast would verify by correctly predicting the texture of the winter overall. Surely, KA's forecast suggested a snowy winter with enough cold to balance out a lot of the warmth. This winter was nothing like that. Essentially this winter was wall to wall warmth and no snow-----a far different spirit of the winter than KA predicted. In fact KA has not really consistently hit on the tone of a winter season in a while. I know that HM defended him last winter by saying that his "technique" would probably not work well in a rapidly changing global state like we saw in the fall of 2010. However, the fall of 2011 was less volatile (especially ENSO wise) and KA still busted for this past winter. The "master" has fallen. All hail Wes and Don S.

MDstorm

[Ji]

Howard called himself for DCA to get 12-17 inches of snow. His final snowfall grade was a B/B-

Huh?

[usedtobe]

I have to agree with Ji on this one. Now I don't expect anyone to nail each monthly departure on the nose or hit the exact snowfall, but a winter forecast should score on the "feel" of the season. In other words, the forecast would verify by correctly predicting the texture of the winter overall. Surely, KA's forecast suggested a snowy winter with enough cold to balance out a lot of the warmth. This winter was nothing like that. Essentially this winter was wall to wall warmth and no snow-----a far different spirit of the winter than KA predicted. In fact KA has not really consistently hit on the tone of a winter season in a while. I know that HM defended him last winter by saying that his "technique" would probably not work well in a rapidly changing global state like we saw in the fall of 2010. However, the fall of 2011 was less volatile (especially ENSO wise) and KA still busted for this past winter. The "master" has fallen. All hail Wes and Don S.

MDstorm

To be fair, in early November I was pretty similar to Matt in my thinking so I can't claim to have done that well. I think the majority of forecasts were too cold from Dec and most had too much snow even if they were forecasting less than normal amounts. By mid November, the signals had changed and it was pretty obvious that the ao would rage during December into early January but I really had no clue about the rest of the winter except that at the beginning of each month I made a guess about the month based on the pattern and how persistent it would be during that month and even then I was a little too agressive about the pattern improving for snow in Feb as I thought we would end up below normal for the month but not by much. . I think Don was the clear winner and that the cfs2 model was also prett good over our area.

[Huffwx]

KA hasn't been good in a while. 07-08 according to Matt. Wiffed this year, Wiffed 09-10

[brad1551]

Don & Wes were the best in my book!

[Huffwx]

My take-- everyone brings a bias to the table and when the winter fits the bias, you look good. The less of bias combined with higher skill gets best results. (Not rocket science there)

[easternsnowman]

I have to agree with Ji on this one. Now I don't expect anyone to nail each monthly departure on the nose or hit the exact snowfall, but a winter forecast should score on the "feel" of the season. In other words, the forecast would verify by correctly predicting the texture of the winter overall. Surely, KA's forecast suggested a snowy winter with enough cold to balance out a lot of the warmth. This winter was nothing like that. Essentially this winter was wall to wall warmth and no snow-----a far different spirit of the winter than KA predicted. In fact KA has not really consistently hit on the tone of a winter season in a while. I know that HM defended him last winter by saying that his "technique" would probably not work well in a rapidly changing global state like we saw in the fall of 2010. However, the fall of 2011 was less volatile (especially ENSO wise) and KA still busted for this past winter. The "master" has fallen. All hail Wes and Don S.

MDstorm

In all fairness to Keith he made his call in Sepember, the later a forecaster made the call the more accurate he would be. It was quite clear by mid november it would be a mild winter.