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March Lion Roars: 2/29-3/1 Winter Storm
Started By
Logan11
, 28 Feb 2012 04:20 PM
#1
Posted 28 February 2012 - 04:20 PM
I guess this warrants a separate thread for ENY and CNY anyway.
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#2
Posted 28 February 2012 - 04:25 PM
Well this would be the biggest region-wide snowstorm of the season for the Mohawk Valley, Capital District and Lake George to Saratoga Area.
Of course in most years it would be a typical moderate sized event.
Of course in most years it would be a typical moderate sized event.
#3
Posted 28 February 2012 - 05:26 PM
I wish I could live in an 18z NAM fantasy world. 12-18" region wide would be sweet. But I'm not sure we see more than 2-4" with the first wave. Thermal profiles dictate what we see beyond that...hopefully another couple inches Thu/Thu night...but I'm not sold on that just yet.
FWIW...Albany's daily snowfall record for tomorrow is just 0.8"...so this event could be a record breaker.
FWIW...Albany's daily snowfall record for tomorrow is just 0.8"...so this event could be a record breaker.
#4
Posted 28 February 2012 - 05:35 PM
Its prob just north of the area but the 30-40 mm on the rgem almost looks like it goes down the valley..Its very hard to tell, nonetheless it looks good..
rgem snowmap
rgem snowmap
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#5
Posted 28 February 2012 - 05:45 PM
That's pretty impressive.
And as you can see from this 36 hr map...the model thinks it's all snow in the CD and much of the Mohawk Valley.
And as you can see from this 36 hr map...the model thinks it's all snow in the CD and much of the Mohawk Valley.
Its prob just north of the area but the 30-40 mm on the rgem almost looks like it goes down the valley..Its very hard to tell, nonetheless it looks good..
#7
Posted 28 February 2012 - 07:57 PM
Couple more local mapsWKTV for the day on WED
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#9
Posted 28 February 2012 - 09:43 PM
Thank you for posting all those graphics MohawkValley - nice to have them all in one place:)
As my neighbor said two days ago when I mentioned this potential significant storm - "I'll believe it when I have snow to shovel"
As my neighbor said two days ago when I mentioned this potential significant storm - "I'll believe it when I have snow to shovel"
#10
Posted 28 February 2012 - 09:49 PM
I can't believe this model spits this out 15 hours before the storm. Way overdone on precip obviously, and am still very worried about taint at some point...but pretty to look at.
0z Nam
#11
Posted 28 February 2012 - 10:14 PM
I can't believe this model spits this out 15 hours before the storm. Way overdone on precip obviously, and am still very worried about taint at some point...but pretty to look at.
I think the 0z looks a bit warmer in mid layers than previous runs, so your concerns are warranted. Plus side is 18z GFS was a touch cooler. We may be converging in a solution finally.
#12
Posted 28 February 2012 - 10:23 PM
I was wrong...Bufkit says 0z nam is still mostly snow at ALB. About 1.25" total QPF.
#13
Posted 28 February 2012 - 10:24 PM
Probably one not much different than what the NWS has forecasted at the moment. Still, should rival my crippling 5" snowfall back in January for heaviest of the season.
Edit: pulled up bufkit and saw that as well. Both NAM and GFS are rather stubborn, will give them that.
Edit: pulled up bufkit and saw that as well. Both NAM and GFS are rather stubborn, will give them that.
I think the 0z looks a bit warmer in mid layers than previous runs, so your concerns are warranted. Plus side is 18z GFS was a touch cooler. We may be converging in a solution finally.
#14
Posted 28 February 2012 - 10:38 PM
Bufkit for kuca shows 4.5" of front end snow, .30" in the form of ice then another 5" on top of that lol Being 13 more miles east i would get a little more snow..
#15
Posted 28 February 2012 - 10:42 PM
My head is spinning with this one. The NAM is often better at seeing low level cold air damming, and it's been pretty consistent today, but it's on a losing streak as of late to say the least. Also if often seems like if a mid level warm tongue can change us to pings and ice it often will in marginal situations. All of the models are being relatively stubborn with this one. Something has to give soon. Models seem to give us 3-14". We'll see, should be interesting at least.
#16
Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:07 PM
0Z Goofus trended colder. A NAM coup would do a lot to help repair an awful winter. GFS looks like 1.3" QPF at Alb with mostly snow. Close call with the temp profile though. 500 mb dynamics shifted south a bit. Fingers crossed!
#17
Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:13 PM
0Z Goofus trended colder. A NAM coup would do a lot to help repair an awful winter. GFS looks like 1.3" QPF at Alb with mostly snow. Close call with the temp profile though. 500 mb dynamics shifted south a bit. Fingers crossed!
I'm not convinced the new GFS is mostly snow, I'll wait to see Bufkit. But one thing is for sure, we will mix. After the first wave, well see a mess of sleet/fzra, maybe plain old drizzle in the break. How well we do with the second half depends on how quickly temps crash. What's interesting with the GFS, it looks like we do a bit better with the second half of this storm than the first half...it just doesnt have as much precip with the initial wave tomorrow.
#18
Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:20 PM
At 18hrs the gfs looks pretty good, not to far from the nam..Just a little quicker..But at hr 24 it pushes the mod-heavy precip to the east unlike the nam which pushes it north..(1st image is really 2nd)
0z gfs
0z gfs
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#19
Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:24 PM
The New England thread is going bonkers for "GFS caves to NAM". At least the GFS is trending colder each run with the dynamics for part 2 shifting south. I hope your wrong about the "we will mix." All you need is a model and a dream....the NAM in this case (soundings show maybe an hour of possible mixing but prob mostly if not all snow).
I'm not convinced the new GFS is mostly snow, I'll wait to see Bufkit. But one thing is for sure, we will mix. After the first wave, well see a mess of sleet/fzra, maybe plain old drizzle in the break. How well we do with the second half depends on how quickly temps crash. What's interesting with the GFS, it looks like we do a bit better with the second half of this storm than the first half...it just doesnt have as much precip with the initial wave tomorrow.
#20
Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:26 PM
It's awfully precarious....
It could be anywhere from about 4 inches to the extreme of a foot in ALB.
One positive is the RGEM which is running colder than the two US models and I can't recall the last time that happened.
It could be anywhere from about 4 inches to the extreme of a foot in ALB.
One positive is the RGEM which is running colder than the two US models and I can't recall the last time that happened.
I was wrong...Bufkit says 0z nam is still mostly snow at ALB. About 1.25" total QPF.
#21
Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:30 PM
If it gets really light freezing drizzle maybe, but I don't expect FZRA..... PL yeah.....
25 here now ...off a high of 35 today.
25 here now ...off a high of 35 today.
I'm not convinced the new GFS is mostly snow, I'll wait to see Bufkit. But one thing is for sure, we will mix. After the first wave, well see a mess of sleet/fzra, maybe plain old drizzle in the break. How well we do with the second half depends on how quickly temps crash. What's interesting with the GFS, it looks like we do a bit better with the second half of this storm than the first half...it just doesnt have as much precip with the initial wave tomorrow.
#22
Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:33 PM
January 11-12th was a rare event where we erred on the cold side wrt model mid level temp forecasts. It was knifes edge like this and 95% of it fell as snow here. It's really the only time all winter we sort of overachieved.
The New England thread is going bonkers for "GFS caves to NAM". At least the GFS is trending colder each run with the dynamics for part 2 shifting south. I hope your wrong about the "we will mix." All you need is a model and a dream....the NAM in this case (soundings show maybe an hour of possible mixing but prob mostly if not all snow).
#23
Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:46 PM
fwiw (which is not much)the 23 hr ruc screws the HV, decent hit for cny, best for the catskills
http://ruc.noaa.gov/...&adtfn=1&wjet=1
http://ruc.noaa.gov/...&adtfn=1&wjet=1
#24
Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:51 PM
For once I'd like to wake up the day of an impending storm and not have the models back way off on the QPF. Even if it's not all snow, I want a juicy exciting storm with decent precip rates. Hope the NAM and GFS hold serve or go bonkers with the 6Z and 12Z! Dream, dream , dream! Night all.
#25
Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:51 PM
I was a little thrown off by the GFS qpf maps though because I forgot to look at the 12-18 hour period. We get some before 1 PM also...especially so out west.
At 18hrs the gfs looks pretty good, not to far from the nam..Just a little quicker..But at hr 24 it pushes the mod-heavy precip to the east unlike the nam which pushes it north..(1st image is really 2nd)
0z gfs
#27
Posted 29 February 2012 - 12:15 AM
Very nice job with the map Phil, and excellent discussion!
My thoughts: http://www.atmos.alb...pin/local4.html
#28
Posted 29 February 2012 - 01:42 AM
Ecm looks better, more precip and colder, herkimer only goes above freezing at 850 for about 3 hrs..Looks like 2-4 on the front end followed by a few hrs of mix and then 3-6/4-8 for the 2nd rnd..
#29
Posted 29 February 2012 - 06:10 AM
Ecm looks better, more precip and colder, herkimer only goes above freezing at 850 for about 3 hrs..Looks like 2-4 on the front end followed by a few hrs of mix and then 3-6/4-8 for the 2nd rnd..
Really looking like round 2 could be bigger than round 1. Some mix still likely in there...but if we stay at or below freezing for the duration, I'm not gonna complain.
#30
Posted 29 February 2012 - 09:35 AM
..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...
* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 16 INCHES WITH THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 12 INCHES IN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND THE
LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION. A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET
MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AS
WELL AS A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY.
* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...MID 20S TO MID 30S.
#31
Posted 29 February 2012 - 10:35 AM
Light snow began here at Voorheesville High School at 10:30am!!! 32F / 22F.
#32
Posted 29 February 2012 - 10:37 AM
12z NAM holding strong...1.2" QPF at ALB, all snow. I'm generally thinking 6" when all is said and done. I still think some sleet could mix in for a time and even if it doesn't, ratios may be pretty bad during periods of lighter precip. But we'll see.
Radar suggests flakes are on the doorstep...expecting things to commence within the hour.
Radar suggests flakes are on the doorstep...expecting things to commence within the hour.
#33
Posted 29 February 2012 - 10:53 AM
12 GFS came in colder.....looks like it could be all snow...waiting on soundings. Cold trend seams to be weakening front end thump, but giving us better chances for accumulations tonight and early tomorrow. I'm liking the trends!
#35
Posted 29 February 2012 - 10:59 AM
12Z GFS looks like 1.3-1.4" QPF, all (if not mostly) snow. Hmmmmm.
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