1693 replies to this topic

[TheTrials]

People forget this is the NYC METRO subforum, not the NYC and LI subforum.

Its unbelievable really.

[ag3]

Seriously. Areas within 20 miles of NYC have a shot at decent snow with this storm.
Even SWCT is right on the cusp of receiving a couple inches.

[TheTrials]

Seriously. Areas within 20 miles of NYC have a shot at decent snow with this storm.
Even SWCT is right on the cusp of receiving a couple inches.

NAM says we do, I posted the soundings.

[NYCSuburbs]

UKMET from the longer range maps looks interesting... I have no idea if it's cold enough but it develops a stronger coastal low at hour 120, but it could just as easily be one of its typically exaggerated long range storms. I'm not so sure I'm buying the way the models are currently handling the lakes cutter storm, especially the western ones; we haven't seen a single low pressure take a track that far west through Quebec in the entire winter, and the last several times the models tried to show stronger storms through the Great Lakes, they trended weaker and more suppressed. I definitely don't expect any snowstorm on Saturday as there's nothing really forcing it south, but it would not surprise me if the storm ends up weaker, further southeast, and colder for NYC than the latest models are showing, with perhaps some sort of a secondary low development possible, although especially with the progressive pattern, should that happen I'd think that it would be more likely to stay offshore than to track inland.

[BxEngine]

http://geography.abo...nymetroarea.htm

Really curious as to how no one in the NY metro area sees accumulations....especially considering the oft bashed for being too conservative Upton calling for it.

[tornadojay]

Upton continues to bust almost 10 degrees on my zone and it's a 12 hour forecast. They went lower 30's last night. It was 40. As of their 11:30 AM forecast today, that had highs in the lower 40's and it hit 50 this afternoon.

[Brian5671]

NAM says we do, I posted the soundings.

The 18z nam is always overdone on precip. While I don't disagree that we'll see something, it won't be on the order of what the NAM is showing...

[Brian5671]

Upton continues to bust almost 10 degrees on my zone and it's a 12 hour forecast. They went lower 30's last night. It was 40. As of their 11:30 AM forecast today, that had highs in the lower 40's and it hit 50 this afternoon.

This torch winter shows no boundaries of how high we can go. Someone posted in the storm thread, source regions have no snowcover, we have no snowcover.....big part of the reason why I think this spring will be really nice.

[forkyfork]

Its unbelievable really.

it's more unbelievable that grown adults get hardons over a few inches of snow

[BxEngine]

http://geography.abo...nymetroarea.htm

Really curious as to how no one in the NY metro area sees accumulations....especially considering the oft bashed for being too conservative Upton calling for it.

Fwiw, Im still skeptical we can get get heavy enough precip to see any slushy accumulations.....my comments are merely in regard to the apparent lack of geographical knowledge here, not necessarily the forecast itself.

[patrick05]

UKMET from the longer range maps looks interesting... I have no idea if it's cold enough but it develops a stronger coastal low at hour 120, but it could just as easily be one of its typically exaggerated long range storms. I'm not so sure I'm buying the way the models are currently handling the lakes cutter storm, especially the western ones; we haven't seen a single low pressure take a track that far west through Quebec in the entire winter, and the last several times the models tried to show stronger storms through the Great Lakes, they trended weaker and more suppressed. I definitely don't expect any snowstorm on Saturday as there's nothing really forcing it south, but it would not surprise me if the storm ends up weaker, further southeast, and colder for NYC than the latest models are showing, with perhaps some sort of a secondary low development possible, although especially with the progressive pattern, should that happen I'd think that it would be more likely to stay offshore than to track inland.

GFS also showed a coastal for next week in its 6z run but was pretty weak for 12z, plenty cold too though; as many here have said, that time frame could be our last chance of seeing snow in a while...

[forkyfork]

it's more unbelievable that grown adults get hardons over a few inches of snow

also unbelievable that these same adults actually have strong emotions about a non snowy winter... something is wrong with a lot of our forum members

[ag3]

Fwiw, Im still skeptical we can get get heavy enough precip to see any slushy accumulations.....my comments are merely in regard to the apparent lack of geographical knowledge here, not necessarily the forecast itself.

I'm skeptical of the initial onset being as heavy as some of the hi-res models have it also.
But if it is, areas just north of the city and maybe even into northern parts of NYC, will have a couple hours of fun tomorrow.

[ag3]

also unbelievable that these same adults actually have strong emotions about a non snowy winter... something is wrong with a lot of our forum members

Being on a weather forum alone, means something is wrong with us.

[BxEngine]

I'm skeptical of the initial onset being as heavy as some of the hi-res models have it also.
But id it does, areas just north of the city and maybe even into northern parts of NYC, will have a couple hours of fun tomorrow.

Yeah, thats pretty much where i am right now too.

[Brian5671]

it's more unbelievable that grown adults get hardons over a few inches of snow on their cartop that vanishes after 5 hrs.

FIXED

[ELCwx]

These Upton snowmaps are like a ping pong game, at least for inland fairfield county. Danbury has gone from 3.9 midday yesterday to 0.7 last night to 4.1 this morning and now down to 1.4. Are these things computer generated or done by people?

[Brian5671]

Ryan H from the NE thread has some good thoughts-has 1 inch or less for CT shoreline.

http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/

[jm1220]

Funny, because that's what almost EVERYONE does when we see your posts.

Funny, I can at least give some reasoning behind what I'm saying besides your "those storms with the big H north of us always come in colder!! Always!111!!!".

Enjoy your 2" of snow, wherever you come from.

[jm1220]

These Upton snowmaps are like a ping pong game, at least for inland fairfield county. Danbury has gone from 3.9 midday yesterday to 0.7 last night to 4.1 this morning and now down to 1.4. Are these things computer generated or done by people?

Upton's on Long Island where little/no snow will likely fall. Obviously, they're biased too warm and just want to "project" at everybody else. Just ask Trials.

[rossi]

also unbelievable that these same adults actually have strong emotions about a non snowy winter... something is wrong with a lot of our forum members

I agree completely - and the terrible analysis goes hand in hand - all forums should have analysis only done by those qualified to give analysis.

Rossi

[ag3]

Funny, I can at least give some reasoning behind what I'm saying besides your "those storms with the big H north of us always come in colder!! Always!111!!!".

Enjoy your 2" of snow, wherever you come from.

He lives in SWCT. Along with Brian45679823, they are both on the cusp of accumulating snow. Albeit, only 1"-3" probably, but still. Northern Bronx/Westchester are right on the cusp as well.

Many posters who are just north of NYC have a chance at accumulating snow.

Its annoying for these posters to keep hearing about no snow for LI or NYC or Monmouth County and ignore the many posters who are from Westchester, Northern Bronx, SWCT, lower Hudson Valley, etc. who have a decent shot at some snow tomorrow and are just as much part of the nyc metro forum as anyone.

[supermeh]

Maybe we should break the forum up into the northern half of NYC: Westchester, SW CT, Rockland and a few of the NJ zones, then Long Island by itself and then the City and the rest of Jersey. The weather in these areas can be quite different as this storm would suggest.

[Isotherm]

Its annoying for these posters to keep hearing about no snow for LI or NYC or Monmouth County and ignore the many posters who are from

I feel like I got a shout out there. Luckily I'm near Philly now so this can't apply to me.

[Brian5671]

Maybe we should break the forum up into the northern half of NYC: Westchester, SW CT, Rockland and a few of the NJ zones, then Long Island by itself and then the City and the rest of Jersey. The weather in these areas can be quite different as this storm would suggest.

For Christ's sake, no. 95% of the time it's not an issue

[Brian5671]

Funny, I can at least give some reasoning behind what I'm saying besides your "those storms with the big H north of us always come in colder!! Always!111!!!".

Enjoy your 2" of snow, wherever you come from.

he lives near me. couple of towns over. So when he claims to have 6 inches, the voice of reason will come in...

[Isotherm]

Maybe we should break the forum up into the northern half of NYC: Westchester, SW CT, Rockland and a few of the NJ zones, then Long Island by itself and then the City and the rest of Jersey. The weather in these areas can be quite different as this storm would suggest.

Yeah, agree, I think we should break the forum up into towns actually. Often times in the summer I'm at 90F and a few miles down the road in Eatontown it's 86-87F. I simply can't discuss weather with people that much colder than me in the summer.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Fwiw, Im still skeptical we can get get heavy enough precip to see any slushy accumulations.....my comments are merely in regard to the apparent lack of geographical knowledge here, not necessarily the forecast itself.

Yeah that's one of my pet peeves. It's really amazing even in 2012 how schools don't stress the importance of this subject enough.

[ag3]

For Christ's sake, no. 95% of the time it's not an issue

These types of tight gradients so close to NYC, usually occur during swfevents.

The 2008-2009 winter is a classic example.

22" in JFK
30" in LGA
34" in NE Queens
45"-50" in SWCT/LI

[jm1220]

He lives in SWCT. Along with Brian45679823, they are both on the cusp of accumulating snow. Albeit, only 1"-3" probably, but still. Northern Bronx/Westchester are right on the cusp as well.

Many posters who are just north of NYC have a chance at accumulating snow.

Its annoying for these posters to keep hearing about no snow for LI or NYC or Monmouth County and ignore the many posters who are from Westchester, Northern Bronx, SWCT, lower Hudson Valley, etc. who have a decent shot at some snow tomorrow and are just as much part of the nyc metro forum as anyone.

When you're arguing over 2" of snow, you know it's a rough winter.

Honestly, everyone needs to chill. It's been bad for everybody since October, and no one is begrudging anybody else.

[supermeh]

For Christ's sake, no. 95% of the time it's not an issue

Well, then for Christ's sake people should stop complaining and arguing over this. It is beyond annoying. At least some of the area will see flakes. At this point that is cause for excitement.

[ag3]

Well, then for Christ's sake people should stop complaining and arguing over this. It is beyond annoying. At least some of the area will see flakes. At this point that is cause for excitement.

Agreed. Im excited that areas in the NYC metro zone have a shot at decent snow with this.

[Brian5671]

upton going mostly rain for all but interior SE NY state and Interior S CT

[atownwxwatcher]

Forecast for NYC
Wednesday: Rain, mainly after noon. High near 45. East wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Rain, mainly before 5am. Low around 38. East wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

and btw, even though this will be a mainly rain event for us down here in Monmouth County, and may only see a few flakes in the beginning, it's still fun to track this storm and am rooting for you guys in the north to get a few inches.