154 replies to this topic

[mp184qcr]

Lol it gets even better. Now it says in for next Wednesday 91 with a heat index of 118. Thursday 91 with a heat index of 122. Friday 91 with a heat index of 126! The dew point must be in the upper 80s or lower 90s to get those kind of heat indices.

Ok, you should have specified the date. How do you expect super computers to calculate temperatures with a low standard deviation when it's more than a week away?

Models such as the GEFS have a hard enough time already with the placement of pressures at that time frame.

[metalicwx366]

Ok, you should have specified the date. How do you expect super computers to calculate temperatures with a low standard deviation when it's more than a week away?

Models such as the GEFS have a hard enough time already with the placement of pressures at that time frame.

I did on my first post. I said next wednesday in 10 days. I was just mentioning it because I haven't ever seen a heat index that high before in my forecast.

[FallsLake]

After all the warm weather we may be dealing with some frost in about 9 days. Still far out, but if this was to happen there could be major agricultural problems. 12 GFS at 228 hours:

[Met1985]

FallsLake i agree. Seems like everyone is planting way to early. We could still have some major freezes and frost in April that could kill a lot of plants.

[MariettaWx]

Lol it gets even better. Now it says in for next Wednesday 91 with a heat index of 118. Thursday 91 with a heat index of 122. Friday 91 with a heat index of 126! The dew point must be in the upper 80s or lower 90s to get those kind of heat indices.

upper 80's and lower 90's DPs don't really happen in the US. It could be a real feel type temp you are looking at as opposed to H.I.

[snowstorm2011]

upper 80's and lower 90's DPs don't really happen in the US. It could be a real feel type temp you are looking at as opposed to H.I.

What's the difference between a real feel temp and heat index ?

[MariettaWx]

What's the difference between a real feel temp and heat index ?

The Real Feel Temperature is something we developed in-house here at AccuWeather. It takes into consideration other factors besides just temperature and dew point. It factors in the time of day, the sun angle, and amount of cloud cover, the winds or lack thereof, etc. For example, a temperature of 90 and a dew point of 70 will feel worse at noon or 1 pm with the sun high in the sky than it will at 5 pm or 9 am. Also, a temperature of 90 and a dew point of 70 will feel worse when it is dead calm than if there is a 15 mph wind blowing. The same thing goes for 90/70 with bright sunshine vs. 50% cloud cover. For all of these examples, the heat index will be identical...no difference whatsoever, since it is based solely on temperature and dew point. The Real Feel Temperature, however, will be different for each case.

http://en.allexperts.com/q/Accuweather-2546/Dew-point-Heat-index.htm

[snowstorm2011]

http://en.allexperts...-Heat-index.htm

Very interesting. Thanks for the information.

[nchighcountrywx]

Warm April and May....'cool' June July August ?

[snowstorm2011]

Gotta love FFC and how they contradict themselves.... This is from yesterday morning:

DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING
UPPER LOW MONDAY.

And this is from this morning:

BY MONDAY...AND FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE REGION WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER RETURNING


So, I guess next week we will either have a drier and cooler airmass, or we will have a drier and warmer airmass. I love how they say warm weather "returning". When did it ever leave ?

[metalicwx366]

http://en.allexperts.com/q/Accuweather-2546/Dew-point-Heat-index.htm

Thanks for the information and correction on the heat index thingy.

[FallsLake]

GFS keeps advertising a cool down starting in four days and then basically continuing to the end of the forecast range (day 16). Not sure about frost chances but at least we won't be using air conditioning.

12z GFS at

Hour 96


Hour 192


Hour 288



Hour 384 (looks like another shoot coming down)

[NC_hailstorm]

Fairly strong MJO pushing into p7 but forecasted to dive into the COD,maybe a break from the heat for a while if it can stay stronger.

SOI continue to fall now down to 7.08,it was 12-13 most of Jan-Feb.La Nina was forecasted to weaken and it looks to be going by this.

[mp184qcr]

GFS is featuring a nasty cool down

[Carver's Gap]

With the GFS hinting at a return to normal temps in the long term(maybe even below normal), I am beginning to think that the ENSO signal moving to neutral in late April is going to be the first shift from Nina-like conditions in maybe twelve months. And while the NAO is less and less a significant player as spring rolls on, it is showing a trend towards neutral as well. I think our warm spring is about to end in 12-14 days.

ENSO Update Link (see slide #30)

Attached Files

•  nao.sprd21.gif   70.14K   2 downloads

[VirginiaHippie]

With the GFS hinting at a return to normal temps in the long term(maybe even below normal), I am beginning to think that the ENSO signal moving to neutral in late April is going to be the first shift from Nina-like conditions in maybe twelve months. And while the NAO is less and less a significant player as spring rolls on, it is showing a trend towards neutral as well. I think our warm spring is about to end in 12-14 days.

ENSO Update Link (see slide #30)

I'm sure many would echo this sentiment, but I'll believe it when I see it.
How many times have the teleconnections looked good for cooler weather over the past 4 months and never verified? Way too many to count.

[VirginiaHippie]

Truthfully, I can't see why anyone would care or get excited for cool weather at this point anyway. It's Spring now, lets move on. Winter will come again.

[Carver's Gap]

I'm sure many would echo this sentiment, but I'll believe it when I see it.
How many times have the teleconnections looked good for cooler weather over the past 4 months and never verified? Way too many to count.

Here is the difference...The ENSO state is changing. That is a major, major shift. The pattern is changing as we speak. It is the end of La Nina. The real question to ponder is just how long will the atmosphere remember the Nina pattern during the coming weeks (...the overall ENSO pattern that we have had for the past two winters is ending.) Many have their summer front loaded warm due to this. I, for one, do not want another summer that is extreme on the heat end of things. As for the potential cold weather coming up, I don't think the physics of the atmopshere cares whether you are ready for spring or not. Sorry. Next time, try adding to the conversation.

As a sidenote, the impacts on summer weather and next winter w/ the new ENSO state can't be overstated.

[VirginiaHippie]

Here is the difference...The ENSO state is changing. That is a major, major shift. The pattern is changing as we speak. It is the end of La Nina. The real question to ponder is just how long will the atmosphere remember the Nina pattern during the coming weeks (...the overall ENSO pattern that we have had for the past two winters is ending.) Many have their summer front loaded warm due to this. I, for one, do not want another summer that is extreme on the heat end of things. As for the potential cold weather coming up, I don't think the physics of the atmopshere cares whether you are ready for spring or not. Sorry. Next time, try adding to the conversation.

As a sidenote, the impacts on summer weather and next winter w/ the new ENSO state can't be overstated.

I was adding to the conversation, thank you and being rather realistic. Yeah, the ENSO state is shifting and we're heading for an El Nino, I understand that. I also understand what past Springs where we were in transition were like and see no reason for this one to be majorly different.

Not saying cold outbreaks are impossible, just not incredibly likely. That is simply a fact.

If you don't like what I have to say, you have the freedom to hide my posts on these forums so you don't have to read them.

[Met1985]

Ultimatly the weather is going to do whatever it is going to do. If the NAO does go negative and the MJO pushes into phase 8 and beyond this could be a huge frost/freeze event setting up. Not wishing but me i hated this past month. Too hot to soon. I would much have had normal weather than scorching weather and really looking at the Euro weeklies April looks pretty normal for the SE which will be a nice change. Also in 2007 were i lived we had 8 inches of snow and a low of 18 degrees during that April cold snap. All leaves died and it took the trees another month to sprout leaves back. It can happen again no doubt.

[Carver's Gap]

Ultimatly the weather is going to do whatever it is going to do. If the NAO does go negative and the MJO pushes into phase 8 and beyond this could be a huge frost/freeze event setting up. Not wishing but me i hated this past month. Too hot to soon. I would much have had normal weather than scorching weather and really looking at the Euro weeklies April looks pretty normal for the SE which will be a nice change. Also in 2007 were i lived we had 8 inches of snow and a low of 18 degrees during that April cold snap. All leaves died and it took the trees another month to sprout leaves back. It can happen again no doubt.

The NAO, Euro(to some extent), and the GFS are showing troughing over the East in the mid-long range. My concern, as you mention, is that a strorm amplifies along the coast and drives cold air down in its wake. The threat is most certainly there. With the pattern making a significant change, I think mischief cannot be ruled out. It probaby won't be anything but cold rain in the valleys as climo won't support snow in the valleys - not even close. However, Pisgah/GSMNP have seen some monster snows in early April. That is the worst case scenario as one clear night w/ cold temps in the mid 20s for extended time could devestate fruit growers. Foothills mentioned the possibility of some blocking in his discussion on his site.

[Carver's Gap]

I was adding to the conversation, thank you and being rather realistic. Yeah, the ENSO state is shifting and we're heading for an El Nino, I understand that. I also understand what past Springs where we were in transition were like and see no reason for this one to be majorly different.

Not saying cold outbreaks are impossible, just not incredibly likely. That is simply a fact.

If you don't like what I have to say, you have the freedom to hide my posts on these forums so you don't have to read them.

I wouldn't consider hiding your posts. I can handle a disagreement - that's part of science. We'll live - and I do respect your opinions. I do think a cold snap is becoming more of a passing concern. And you are correct, Nina fooled many of us(me included) all winter. But it behaved, temp wise, like it normally does - so it shouldn't have been a surprise. Now, neutral to Nino conditions in spring can be a big problem - that also is not surprise. As I stated earlier, I just wonder how long the atmosphere will take to react to the "new" Pacific. Thankfully, Nina may be gone by summer.

[Carver's Gap]

For those of you still hedging on whether to sign-up for WxSouth, I just read Foothills' write-up on the upcoming pattern change on the pay site. As usual, it is thorough and expresses many of the scenarios which could produce cold - or not.

[Met1985]

The NAO, Euro(to some extent), and the GFS are showing troughing over the East in the mid-long range. My concern, as you mention, is that a strorm amplifies along the coast and drives cold air down in its wake. The threat is most certainly there. With the pattern making a significant change, I think mischief cannot be ruled out. It probaby won't be anything but cold rain in the valleys as climo won't support snow in the valleys - not even close. However, Pisgah/GSMNP have seen some monster snows in early April. That is the worst case scenario as one clear night w/ cold temps in the mid 20s for extended time could devestate fruit growers. Foothills mentioned the possibility of some blocking in his discussion on his site.

You are right on that. Pisgah has seen some of it's biggest snows in April even in May there has been snow up in the high country. The next 2-3 weeks could be very interesting.

[mp184qcr]

Truthfully, I can't see why anyone would care or get excited for cool weather at this point anyway. It's Spring now, lets move on. Winter will come again.

+1 +1 +1

Everyone should at least acknowledge that it is very unlikely that subfreezing temps will hit non-mtn locations again.

[Carver's Gap]

+1 +1 +1

Everyone should at least acknowledge that it is very unlikely that subfreezing temps will hit non-mtn locations again.

Frost free dates in the northern valley are in late April/early May. Odds say that sub 32 temps will occur before spring ends in the valleys. Not sure where you are getting your info from....We are due to hit 37 tomorrow night and this is not a true cold spell. Average lows here are in the upper 30s for early April @ KTRI. Had a freeze in 2002 on May 22nd - after setting setting three record highs in April. Sure, it could not go below freezing again...odds are it will go to 32 or below in eastern valley locations. The pattern has changed.

We are at +10.1 at KTRI for March. Mother Nature will balance this out...

[mp184qcr]

Frost free dates in the northern valley are in late April/early May. Odds say that sub 32 temps will occur before spring ends in the valleys. Not sure where you are getting your info from....We are due to hit 37 tomorrow night and this is not a true cold spell. Average lows here are in the upper 30s for early April @ KTRI. Had a freeze in 2002 on May 22nd - after setting setting three record highs in April. Sure, it could not go below freezing again...odds are it will go to 32 or below in eastern valley locations. The pattern has changed.

We are at +10.1 at KTRI for March. Mother Nature will balance this out...

I'm getting my info from my professor who's concentration is in meteorology. But if you want specifics, he was talking about the Charlotte area. So sorry for being so vague.

[Carver's Gap]

I'm getting my info from my professor who's concentration is in meteorology. But if you want specifics, he was talking about the Charlotte area. So sorry for being so vague.

No sweat. Probably should have guessed that was a comment for your region. Sorry if my response was a bit over-the-top.

[mp184qcr]

No sweat. Probably should have guessed that was a comment for your region. Sorry if my response was a bit over-the-top.

It's cool. I think everyone, like me, on here is bummed like me that we didn't get a classic winter storm. It kills me that we might have to wait till next winter

[Carver's Gap]

This morning's GFS and (to some extent) the Euro are again beginning to show some blocking around the April 4th time frame. This does not appear to be a false signal. Looks like a significant cool down is on its way. Summer is out. Spring is back. What will be interesting is to see if this becomes the new pattern. The GFS does not want to budge the Eastern trough(centered just off the coast) once it is in place. I'd be interested in what the mets think at this point. Looks to me that this will play havoc w/ agriculture.

[jburns]

We are at +10.1 at KTRI for March. Mother Nature will balance this out...

Puny human, you are thinking in much to short a timeframe. Mother Nature is just beginning to balance out the last ice age.

[Carver's Gap]

Puny human, you are thinking in much to short a timeframe. Mother Nature is just beginning to balance out the last ice age.

Nice. And so true!

[NC_hailstorm]

Just not a big fan for low-mid 80's in March or April,that's too warm and there's plenty of 90's on the way for the summer.Take a cooler break anytime you can get it but try to avoid a killing freeze.

MJO forecast now to rebound and go strongly into p8.

SOI continues to plummet,90 day average down to 4.65.May get below 0 soon if this continues.

[Met1985]

Looks like from next Wed on through Easter weekend some of us could have to deal with frost/freeze events.

[Carver's Gap]

Lots of chatter in the weather world of a potential upcoming pattern change now being shown in the 8-10 day range of the Euro and GFS. I am actually surprised to see the Euro beginning to go the way of the GFS in that time frame. Time will tell, but my guess is that NE TN has not seen its last frost. That is betting w/ the odds for sure as we are not frost free until early May at the lower elevations. But March makes it a tougher guess. Looks to me like this week will be the week that the pattern actually, gasp, changes. BTW, it's pretty easy to say it will get cooler as March was KTRI's warmest on record. If anything, the Tri-Cities after this week appears to return to normal or below.