36 replies to this topic

[WeatherNC]

Go....

credit foster for the graphic (1/5 of TN)

 foster.png   285.61K   14 downloads

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
555 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
BLEDSOE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
CARTER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
COCKE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
GRAINGER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
GREENE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
HAMBLEN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
HAMILTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
HANCOCK COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
HAWKINS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
LOUDON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MEIGS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MONROE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
RHEA COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
ROANE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
EXTREME SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SEQUATCHIE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SEVIER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
EXTREME WESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
UNICOI COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
UNION COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 645 PM EST/545 PM CST/

* AT 546 PM EST/446 PM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SNEEDVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF MCMINNVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...ROGERSVILLE...CLINTON...ROCKWOOD...OAK
RIDGE...MORRISTOWN...KINGSTON...JEFFERSON CITY...PIKEVILLE...
KNOXVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...LENOIR CITY...DANDRIDGE...DAYTON...
LOUDON...GREENEVILLE...ELIZABETHTON...ALCOA AND SEVIERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

MD late on arrival into MRX

 mrx.gif   30.72K   2 downloads

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AL...SE TN...FAR NW AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222349Z - 230115Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS FROM MIDDLE TO ERN TN SWD ACROSS NRN AL AND FAR NW GA.
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES FROM 250 TO 750
J/KG. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH WSR-88D-VWPS SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 70 TO 80 KT. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO
7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. EWD STORM MOTION OF 40 KT WILL HELP
CREATE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS THE LINE BECOMES NEARLY
CONTINUOUS. SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO
EXIST ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AND
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 02/22/2012


ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 35928438 36378455 36558536 35888624 34918734 34258779
33898760 33648692 33748625 34138579 34718521 35348467
35928438

SE Thread pertaining... http://www.americanw...ad/page__st__35

[Riptide]

Not as large as the hebert box, all kidding aside. SPC probably doesn't want another Joplin, MO event to happen.

[JoMo]

Not as large as the hebert box, all kidding aside. SPC probably doesn't want another Joplin, MO event to happen.

?

[Calderon]

Not as large as the hebert box, all kidding aside. SPC probably doesn't want another Joplin, MO event to happen.

Huh? That doesn't even make sense.

[brad1551]

Nobody wants another Joplin MO.

[weatherwiz]

Not as large as the hebert box, all kidding aside. SPC probably doesn't want another Joplin, MO event to happen.

what in the hell?

[SmokeEater]

What the hell are you guys talking about with Joplin, lol. And SPC doesn't issue warnings.

[TheWeatherPimp]

That would have been frustrating for the local media to cover, especially when there was little to no storm activity in the warning box area for the hour long duration and the warning called for "golf ball size hail".

[David Reimer]

Not as large as the hebert box, all kidding aside. SPC probably doesn't want another Joplin, MO event to happen.

You do realize that the local WFOs issue the warnings, right? The Storm Prediction Center only issues convective/fire weather outlooks and convective watches.

On the topic of Joplin, when you can tell me what ingredients came together to produce that supercell, not to mention that specific tornado, you can talk about it. I could try to explain it all to you, but I'm almost at the raging point where I call you an idiot for saying "SPC probably doesn't want another Joplin, MO event to happen." That's just a BS statement.

[Hal]

That would have been frustrating for the local media to cover, especially when there was little to no storm activity in the warning box area for the hour long duration and the warning called for "golf ball size hail".

They also issued two 13 county polygons. One was even for destructive 80 mph winds just before 8pm.

I'm less curious about the size of these warnings, but more about why they were issued in the first place. They weren't canceled or anything, just left to expire. After starting off with huge polygons with nothing in them they transferred over to smaller polygons on seemingly non-severe cells.

[David Reimer]

They also issued two 13 county polygons. One was even for destructive 80 mph winds just before 8pm.

I'm less curious about the size of these warnings, but more about why they were issued in the first place. They weren't canceled or anything, just left to expire. After starting off with huge polygons they transferred over to smaller polygons on seemingly non-severe cells.

I've heard that the region regulations state that no more then 12 counties can be included in any given convective warning. Based on how much attention I've seen this get on Facebook, including an SPC meteorologist, I expect that someone will be getting a phone call from their region HQ.

[Hal]

I've heard that the region regulations state that no more then 12 counties can be included in any given convective warning. Based on how much attention I've seen this get on Facebook, including an SPC meteorologist, I expect that someone will be getting a phone call from their region HQ.

I hope I can say this, but my immediate impression was they were being spiteful, or purposely acting negligent. If this were ever the case, what kind of protocol is in place? Obviously it would be noticed or tracked internally. I'd expect something like office duties being taken over by another office or another forecaster immediately canceling active warnings.

Just my own speculations...

[isohume]

I hope I can say this, but my immediate impression was they were being spiteful, or purposely acting negligent. If this were ever the case, what kind of protocol is in place? Obviously it would be noticed or tracked internally. I'd expect something like office duties being taken over by another office or another forecaster immediately canceling active warnings.

Just my own speculations...

Yeah it could be a whacked out radar forecaster, the janitor, a rookie, MIC, or perhaps MRX has decided to start issuing county warning area based warnings now. Who knows?

[Riptide]

I'm sorry, the humor was a bit dry. It was mostly a bullsh** post but alot of NWS offices seem eager to blow the whistle for thundershowers. Sorry if I offended anyone, right; nobody wants another Joplin, MO.

[isohume]

I'm sorry, the humor was a bit dry. It was mostly a bullsh** post but alot of NWS offices seem eager to blow the whistle for thundershowers. Sorry if I offended anyone, right; nobody wants another Joplin, MO.

It's okay. Just remember people are watching you and other people are watching them.

[isohume]

Here's the largest polygon of the VTEC era. 39,716.5 sq km.

http://mesonet.agron...0R-200907090155

[phil882]

Here's the largest polygon of the VTEC era. 39,716.5 sq km.

http://mesonet.agron...0R-200907090155

Despite that polygons size, there was a legitimate line of storms associated with that warning polygon. The low population of that region probably also prompted the larger than normal area. Sure it probably should have been smaller still, but I'm willing to let that slide as opposed to what we witnessed earlier this evening.

In tonights 30 county warning there was one small storm, not a line, that fit SVR criteria. The biggest problem is that its easy to get away with larger sizes, especially when that likely will improve upon verification scores. Perhaps there should be a new metric that includes polygon size into the verification metric. For example, let polygon verification scores also try to account for areal extent and population density of the given polygon rather than just checking off a box when two reports of fallen trees / large hail are reported. That would probably help keep those extra large warning polygon boxes in check.

[Hal]

Despite that polygons size, there was a legitimate line of storms associated with that warning polygon. The low population of that region probably also prompted the larger than normal area. Sure it probably should have been smaller still, but I'm willing to let that slide as opposed to what we witnessed earlier this evening.

In tonights 30 county warning there was one small storm, not a line, that fit SVR criteria. The biggest problem is that its easy to get away with larger sizes, especially when that likely will improve upon verification scores. Perhaps there should be a new metric that includes polygon size into the verification metric. For example, let polygon verification scores also try to account for areal extent and population density of the given polygon rather than just checking off a box when two reports of fallen trees / large hail are reported. That would probably help keep those extra large warning polygon boxes in check.

The warning was basically for a non-existent line. And so were most following warnings. There wasn't really an initial first storm, just a mess of scattered low end dbz that developed a couple pockets of 50dbz around Knoxville throughout the first warning. No reports for even 0.25" hail surfaced from the first warnings. By the time the line actually arrived at the CWA border they put up more large warnings that expired by the time the line was entering the polygons.

 bigwarning2.png   82.69K   0 downloads

* AT 546 PM EST/446 PM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SNEEDVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF MCMINNVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
65 MPH.

AT 615 PM EST/515 PM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FALL
BRANCH TO MOUNT CREST...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH
OF KINGSPORT TO PIKEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

[SD]

Maybe a "Special Weather Statement" would have been more suitable for that first line then?

[isohume]

Despite that polygons size, there was a legitimate line of storms associated with that warning polygon. The low population of that region probably also prompted the larger than normal area. Sure it probably should have been smaller still, but I'm willing to let that slide as opposed to what we witnessed earlier this evening.

In tonights 30 county warning there was one small storm, not a line, that fit SVR criteria. The biggest problem is that its easy to get away with larger sizes, especially when that likely will improve upon verification scores. Perhaps there should be a new metric that includes polygon size into the verification metric. For example, let polygon verification scores also try to account for areal extent and population density of the given polygon rather than just checking off a box when two reports of fallen trees / large hail are reported. That would probably help keep those extra large warning polygon boxes in check.

Yeah I'm not trying to defend it. lol.

But on the other hand, I wasn't interrogating it either, so I don't know what the real time situ was like, strength or alignment of the cold pool, environ conds, etc.

Pop density is not a factor when issuing a warning, and it shouldn't be.

[BadgerWXman]

I hope someone is held accountable for this... it's serious stuff. FAR is bad enough to begin with... unfortunately, my guess is that it goes without any kind of disciplinary action as with most government jobs. This is definitely not worth "letting it slide."

[Mr Bob]

I have zero knowledge of the situation (even though I am in TN), but going back to what foster said, I wonder if someone was a little unhappy SPC did not have a watch out for the area. Pure speculation of course...we may never know the real answer.

[isohume]

I have this odd feeling that some sort of wild monkey got loose at MRX. I'm not sure how, but I keep thinking that may have been the case. I could be wrong tho.

[wxmeddler]

Smallest Tornado Warning box ever??

Issued today by AKQ : 95 Sq.Km..

[MGorse]

Smallest Tornado Warning box ever??

Issued today by AKQ : 95 Sq.Km..

These types of scenarios are tough as the storm is tracking right along CWA boundaries (WFO's AKQ and PHI). WFO AKQ could not draw their polygon any farther north since it would be out of their CWA.

[wxmeddler]

These types of scenarios are tough as the storm is tracking right along CWA boundaries (WFO's AKQ and PHI). WFO AKQ could not draw their polygon any farther north since it would be out of their CWA.

Understood, but Mt. Holly did not issue a warning (of any kind) in response to AKQ's warning. Kind of made AKQ look silly with no intra-CWA continuity.

[MGorse]

Understood, but Mt. Holly did not issue a warning (of any kind) in response to AKQ's warning. Kind of made AKQ look silly with no intra-CWA continuity.

PHI issued an SVR at 414 PM and was valid during AKQ's neighboring tornado warning (issued at 423 PM). AKQ issued an SVR at 414 PM:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SUSSEX COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GEORGETOWN...

* UNTIL 445 PM EST

* AT 405 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SEAFORD...OR 17 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 65
MPH. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF SUSSEX
COUNTY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE THROUGH 445 PM.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
414 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DORCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...
SOMERSET COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...
WICOMICO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 500 PM EST

* AT 410 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FEDERALSBURG TO NANTICOKE TO 8
MILES WEST OF BLOODSWORTH ISLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL WICOMICO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 445 PM EST

[Stebo]

I have zero knowledge of the situation (even though I am in TN), but going back to what foster said, I wonder if someone was a little unhappy SPC did not have a watch out for the area. Pure speculation of course...we may never know the real answer.

That would have been my guess also. Just seems a bit silly and doesn't help with respect to warning folks. I mean over half of those counties it probably didn't even rain let alone had any severe weather.

[isohume]

That would have been my guess also. Just seems a bit silly and doesn't help with respect to warning folks. I mean over half of those counties it probably didn't even rain let alone had any severe weather.

Yeah it does. That's assuming much drama on the part of the warning forecaster. It assumes he/she was so emotionally distraught that SPC did not have a watch out (a nominal product) that they were willing to put their career on the line, their, their office's and the NWS's reputation on the line, and throw all responsibility to their oath of protecting life and property out the window. That's a big assumption. Silly really.

I have a feeling it was more to due with a misinterpretation of environ conds and expectations of that system due to previous mesoscale experiences, such as was pointed out in the chats.

[it*has*an*i]

Would say it could have been a glitch in the warning software but if that were the case, it should have immediately been cancelled.

Is there any possibility that a hacker from outside of the NWS broke into their network and issued these warnings without the NWS even knowing???

[isohume]

Is there any possibility that a hacker from outside of the NWS broke into their network and issued these warnings without the NWS even knowing???

I suppose that's possible. I think it's more likely a wild monkey got loose in operations. I suppose we'll really never know for sure tho.

[BadgerWXman]

I'd like to know considering we pay their salaries. Maybe I'll write the MIC a letter.. I'm really interested to see what happened.

[isohume]

I'd like to know considering we pay their salaries. Maybe I'll write the MIC a letter.. I'm really interested to see what happened.

I have a feeling it was more to due with a misinterpretation of environ conds and expectations of that system due to previous mesoscale experiences, such as was pointed out in the chats.

[MGorse]

I wonder if the NWS office received any complaints/comments from the media, etc. regarding this.

[isohume]

I wonder if the NWS office received any complaints/comments from the media, etc. regarding this.

According to their fb page and chat...yes. We had media guys here asking us about it in our chat. I'm sure the webmaster account had an increase in emails along with management.