284 replies to this topic

[CAD Addict]

Getting hail and strong winds right now...I've never seen hail in February before, and in Boone of all places!

[Thrasher Fan]

Getting hail and strong winds right now...I've never seen hail in February before, and in Boone of all places!

Just call it sleet.

[SouthernNJ]

Not much going on. The only "organized" cluster is north of Gadsden AL
at the moment.

Looked like this cluster was weakening, but it re-energized right at the
AL/GA state line. FFC gives it a SVR. Strongest part moving for
Cave Spring, just south of Rome.

[Weatherkid#27]

That cluster looks to go north of me. I can already hear rumbles though.

[lilj4425]

It is coming down in buckets here. Good bit of lightning too.

[andyhb]

MS, Western/Middle TN and Western KY looking favorable for something tomorrow evening if the 00z NAM verifies:

[mackerel_sky]

Very cool tstorm going on here in Simpsonville right now with lots of good cg strokes,sws for pea size hail just to the north,that would be Awesome.
Edit: got the pea size hail,great storm any day,but fantastic for Feb.!

[andyhb]

Multiple fb reports of a possible tornado touchdown in Kingston, GA. FFC didn't have a warning on it...

Awaiting a source.

[POWERSTROKE]

quick moving storm through here. Lasted about ten minutes

[SouthernNJ]

Looked like this cluster was weakening, but it re-energized right at the
AL/GA state line. FFC gives it a SVR. Strongest part moving for
Cave Spring, just south of Rome.

This cluster caused wind damage East-southeast of Rome near Kingston Hwy
and Freeman Ferry rd. It broke apart, sending the southern storm near
Kennesaw and Alpharetta. Meanwhile, the main cluster is strengthening
again as it moves near Gainesville.

[SmokeEater]

Multiple fb reports of a possible tornado touchdown in Kingston, GA. FFC didn't have a warning on it...

Awaiting a source.

All I'm hearing so far is some trees and power lines down. Scanner feed in the area doesn't sound like anything too major, and there wasn't a couplet in the area of question. Gotta watch going off FB posts alone.

[audioguy3107]

......again as it moves near Gainesville.

I'm about 15 min. south of Gainesville....seeng quite a bit of lightning now...looks like we'll be clipped by the southernmost edge of the cluster. Not expecting too much excitement out of this though.

[andyhb]

All I'm hearing so far is some trees and power lines down. Scanner feed in the area doesn't sound like anything too major, and there wasn't a couplet in the area of question. Gotta watch going off FB posts alone.

Michael Phelps (who I'd consider to be a pretty reliable source) fb'd that he's hearing reports of damage in the area, not too sure he'd post this without adequate justification.

[audioguy3107]

Michael Phelps (who I'd consider to be a pretty reliable source) fb'd that he's hearing reports of damage in the area.

How does he have time for severe weather reporting in between doing all those practice laps in the pool!!!?? Sorry, couldn't help myself with the lame joke.

[andyhb]

Freeman Store in Kingston:

[Wow]

Line just crossing through right now. Some very loud rumbling thunder and heavy rain. Windy too.

[tornadotony]

I really think tomorrow is going to be an Ohio Valley event. More later.

[SouthernNJ]

I'm about 15 min. south of Gainesville....seeng quite a bit of lightning now...looks like we'll be clipped by the southernmost edge of the cluster. Not expecting too much excitement out of this though.

Some parts of the cluster are actually looking a little dangerous. Pendergrass,
Jefferson, Hoschton will be next in line. I am a little bewildered that FFC only
just now switched to VCP 12 (severe weather mode) after what happened an hour ago.
This cluster has shown signs of rotation (not very strong) ever since it formed north
of Gadsden AL.

[SmokeEater]

Michael Phelps (who I'd consider to be a pretty reliable source) fb'd that he's hearing reports of damage in the area, not too sure he'd post this without adequate justification.

I agree, just passing along what I'm hearing. Still barely any damage being reported by PD or FD.

[andyhb]

I really think tomorrow is going to be an Ohio Valley event. More later.

I was thinking Western/Middle TN and MS as well...

[SouthernNJ]

Would not be entirely shocked to see a TOR for this storm as it moves
between Nicholson and Athens. FFC has now stated that the storm
has very noticeable rotation, more so than earlier.

[SmokeEater]

Not bad rotation, storm has a decent amount of hail also. The red areas show hail on dual-pol.

[lj0109]

Would not be entirely shocked to see a TOR for this storm as it moves
between Nicholson and Athens. FFC has now stated that the storm
has very noticeable rotation, more so than earlier.

Would not surprise me either. FFC has issuing warnings about a county ahead of the storm now.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1209 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
OGLETHORPE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1245 AM EST

* AT 1206 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
NICHOLSON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ATHENS...ILA...HULL...WINTERVILLE...DANIELSVILLE...COLBERT...
ARNOLDSVILLE...COMER...CRAWFORD...LEXINGTON AND CARLTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH
CURRENT DATA DOES NOT INDICATE THE EXISTENCE OF A TORNADO...A TORNADO
MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

Attached Files

•  ffc.png   245.05K   2 downloads

[andyhb]

Fatality being reported from GA, per forum at Talkwx...

[SouthernNJ]

Radar showing strong inflow into a circulation is what concerns me usually.
At 1210 EST, the radar showed somewhat of an inflow shape on reflectivity,
while also showing the storms hail intensity had lessened a little. I have
studied storms that I have followed over the past year or so, and about
5 or 6 of these type of storms went on to produce either a tornado or
destructive straight-line winds.

[andyhb]

New day 1:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND DEEP SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL
PROGRESS EWD ON THU...AIDING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY BY EVENING AND REMAIN
POSITIVELY-TILTED AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BE INVOF IL/IND BORDER BY 00Z...WITH A W/E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT
SHIFTING NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS LK
ERIE...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS E/SEWD ACROSS THE MS/TN
VALLEYS AND WRN GULF COAST IN THE EVENING...BEFORE REACHING THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND CNTRL GULF COAST BY 12Z/FRI.

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS...STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS HAVE ENVELOPED THE RESIDUAL
WARM SECTOR FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH
MODEST BACKING TO SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE N-CNTRL
CONUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THIS TYPE OF REGIME SHOULD SERVE
TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE BENEATH AN
EXPANDING EML.

EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE VARY MARKEDLY WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE NAM AND
WRF-NMM/ETA-BASED MEMBERS OF THE SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF AND WRF-ARW/RSM MEMBERS OF THE SREF...WHICH RESULTS IN
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN BUOYANCY PROFILES.
NEVERTHELESS...VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD YIELD TSTM INITIATION INVOF SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE
LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HERE...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND AT LEAST MEAGER INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A RISK FOR
ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WILL
REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

WITH SRN EXTENT...CONFIDENCE LESSENS ON TSTM INITIATION AS STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LARGELY REMAINS N OF THE OH VALLEY. BUT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS MAY RESULT IN TSTMS FORMING SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE.

TOWARDS THE CNTRL GULF COAST...GUIDANCE IS LARGELY CONSISTENT IN
MAINTAINING AN EML THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BUT
MODEST INSTABILITY AND VEERING/WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK RELATIVE TO FARTHER N.

..GRAMS/LEITMAN.. 02/23/2012

Wouldn't be surprised if the risks were expanded westward if a more NAM-like solution comes into fruition.

[SouthernNJ]

FFC says they will send a survey crew to investigate the damage in Floyd county
to see if there was a tornado that occurred. The radar did not show a whole lot
in the area of question, but this is the same area where both an EF-2 and EF-3
happened in December without a TOR as well. Must be something to do with the
mountains and how the radar beam interacts with them. It is a long way from
where Rome is located.

[NrnILStormChaser]

Honestly I like the warm front play in S. IN. The 0z NAM was kind of bullish on CAPE IMO, but did show some fairly decent instability near Evansville. The 4 KM WRF 0z breaks out a cluster of storms in the area. Maybe a couple of mini-sups? If I had to chase tomorrow I would be around Seymour, IN. I like that area a hell of a lot better than any other area tomorrow. Give me a nice warm front play any day. Marginal setup but if I were local I would be watching sfc obs and mesoanalysis like a hawk

[SmokeEater]

Fatality being reported from GA, per forum at Talkwx...

The fatality was a woman who had a heart attack as the storm was moving through.

[HWY316wx]

FFC says the NAM has missed the boat... drying us out too much...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS SCATTERED CLOUDS IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND A MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK IN
COLUMBUS...EAST INTO MACON. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REPRESENT
THIS. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST. AS
SUCH...POPULATED THE GRIDS WITH THE CURRENT 12Z RUC DEWPOINTS THAT
WERE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS
MEANT THAT SOME AREAS SAW AN INCREASE OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE IN
DEWPOINT TEMPS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE UNREALISTICALLY DRYING US OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...AS SUCH BELIEVE THAT THE 06Z NAM MIGHT BE UNDER
REPRESENTING THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z GUIDANCE TO
BETTER PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPS TO BETTER REPRESENT
CURRENT WARMING TRENDS.

[audioguy3107]

Looks like forcing is going to be the issue down here, dewpoints fairly high and its really warmed up as well....pockets of CAPE close to 1000 already showing up in central Georgia. Whether we get a good trigger is the question.

Attached Files

•  ttd.gif   67.02K   2 downloads

[Reed Stough]

It will be interesting to see how the upper feature meshes with the surface feature later today and tonight.

[Cheeznado]

I am inclined to believe the NAM with its dry forecast this afternoon/evening, not really seeing a trigger for convection except the front later tonight/tomorrow AM. The RUC and HRRR keep trying to break out precip but it is rather spotty and light looking. So if we get severe it will probably be of the morning variety.

[SouthernNJ]

FFC says they will send a survey crew to investigate the damage in Floyd county
to see if there was a tornado that occurred. The radar did not show a whole lot
in the area of question, but this is the same area where both an EF-2 and EF-3
happened in December without a TOR as well. Must be something to do with the
mountains and how the radar beam interacts with them. It is a long way from
where Rome is located.

As suspected, a tornado was confirmed:
EF-1 from eastern city of Rome to 5 miles east of Rome.
3.25 miles path length and max 95 mph winds.
Worst structure damage was the store and a mobile
home, both lost their roof. Indirect fatality was a 75 year
old female who suffered a heart attack after the storm
passed the area,

FFC did not have much on their rafar (or Huntsville's for
that matter) indicating a tornado in either velocity or
reflectivity. I tracked the cluster from Gadsden to Athens,
and it showed signs of rotating frequently, but rarely to
a point justifying a TOR. However, the one thing that
they could have done better was the SVR for Floyd Co
could have had the "severe thunderstorms can produce
tornadoes with no advanced warning" statement because
of its rotating history in Northeastern Alabama.

[audioguy3107]

NAM did a good job today drying us out, dewpoints have come down since this morning. FFC still expecting favorable parameters late in the evening to overnight for severe weather here but somethings gonna have to break the cap.