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I will plow you a road to see the 25inchesThat's a disappointment...I'm only in the 18 to 20 inch range and a few counties to my west are getting 25 inches. That just isn't right!
Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III
Started By
Marion_NC_WX
, 21 Feb 2012 12:01 AM
#36
Posted 21 February 2012 - 10:08 PM
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#37
Posted 21 February 2012 - 10:12 PM
I will plow you a road to see the 25inches
...I feel better now. I'm glad you got my back!
#38
Posted 21 February 2012 - 10:34 PM
You give me 25 inches up here and I will buy you a steak dinner. LOL!
#39
Posted 21 February 2012 - 10:42 PM
Man.....that would be incredible. Even though it's only one member, you still have to wonder what it saw differently from the others and what would have to happen for it to verify. Where's Brick?
Almost a perfect triangle over my house!
#40
Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:07 PM
Here are some reasons I think we have a shot at something next week
- patterns tend to repeat themselves and the situation next week looks similar to that of this past weekend
- Surface high pressure for next week looks a bit stronger than what we just had
- There will be much colder air on this side of the pole this time around.
#41
Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:16 PM
This weekend looks interesting for the mountain regions to see some upslope snow. Might just be light but still nice to snow flying in the air.
#42
Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:19 PM
March 2-3, 1927 Snowfall Accumulation Map.
March 1927.JPG 266.87KB
20 downloads
This snowstorm was preceded by the warmest February on record in Charlotte.
March 1927.JPG 266.87KB
20 downloadsThis snowstorm was preceded by the warmest February on record in Charlotte.
#43
Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:25 PM
March 2-3, 1927 Snowfall Accumulation Map.
This snowstorm was preceded by the warmest February on record in Charlotte.
Wow, must have been a late phase right on top of us in the Carolinas.
#44
Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:31 PM
In looking at past storms, this one is the most impressive that I've found with respect to widespread, large accumulations across the state. Where did you get that map if you don't mind me asking?March 2-3, 1927 Snowfall Accumulation Map.
#45
Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:33 PM
Eric,March 2-3, 1927 Snowfall Accumulation Map.
This snowstorm was preceded by the warmest February on record in Charlotte.
It is AWESOME to see you posting! Long time-no see Bro! I hope all is well!
#46
Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:43 PM
Well the storm is still there on the 0z gfs for next Wednesday to Friday timeframe. That's about all we can look for right now w/ it being so far away. I'll start paying closer attention to details if it's still there on Friday.
#47
Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:57 PM
I got the map from the AMS Journals Online. The map is actually total monthly snowfall for March 1927, but it gives a good representation of the snow that accumulated during that snowstorm since no snow fell, with the possible exception of the mountains, for the rest of the month.In looking at past storms, this one is the most impressive that I've found with respect to widespread, large accumulations across the state. Where did you get that map if you don't mind me asking?
I make a cameo appearance every now and then.Eric,
It is AWESOME to see you posting! Long time-no see Bro! I hope all is well!
I hope you are doing good.
#48
Posted 22 February 2012 - 01:41 AM
Euro at 168 has cold dropping south with southern stream wave of energy moving into Texas...
#49
Posted 22 February 2012 - 05:36 AM
Well this mornings run of the GFS looks like this weekend snow for the mountains looks pretty good. May have to start a thread for this one but from what i have been reading the Euro and GFS has very diff solutions to this weekends storm.
#50
Posted 22 February 2012 - 07:26 AM
6z GFS has back to back app runners for mid to late next week on this run. Climo wise the next 2 weeks are normally the back end of winter outside the mtns minus the rare occasions such as March 1960. Seems like where due a first week of March storm. Anyway check out south Texas latter this week, cold really makes a deep run for late February, even though it's transient.
#51
Posted 22 February 2012 - 09:03 AM
I like that the Euro still has an alright pattern at least for the Carolinas. We'll be threading the needle again but if we can eek out one widespread good event that'll be good. Plus it's always fun to watch and analyze. BTW the Canadian doesn't look good. No real cold air to work with in the 180 - 240 time frame.
#52
Posted 22 February 2012 - 09:20 AM
I'm afraid we just had the Robert Storm. We can still hope for another though.Looks like what Foothills was talking about earlier in the season. If I recall, he was confident that a cut-off would deliver a big snowstorm to someone before this winter was over. If future runs pick up on this, and if other members get on board with the idea, we should name it "The Robert Storm". Will be interesting to watch this unfold.
Agree; and, ironically while the Coast may still be storming. Lingering moisture and a real 850 temp crash behind the front should bring the northwest NC mountains accumulating upslope snow above 3,500 FT. Edit: Little s/w through WV could try to concentrate moisture up that way, and delay best wind direction over NC mtns Friday eve. However I expect a few hours of sticking snow showers for northwest NC mtns late Friday night into pre-dawn Sat.This weekend looks interesting for the mountain regions to see some upslope snow. Might just be light but still nice to snow flying in the air.
#53
Posted 22 February 2012 - 10:00 AM
Being my birthday on Mar 2 nothing would make me happier than a major snowfall event for that date
#55
Posted 22 February 2012 - 11:38 AM
Actually goes from TX panhandle to the lakes - not even an Apps runner.12z GFS keeps the Apps runner idea for next week.
TW
#56
Posted 22 February 2012 - 11:40 AM
Actually goes from TX panhandle to the lakes - not even an Apps runner.
TW
Yea either way it's rubbing salt in the wound at our chances. Maybe the Euro can smack it around and still give us hope.
#57
Posted 22 February 2012 - 12:15 PM
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...formerly known as dawsonwx...
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I think this most interesting weather possibility coming up in the next 3-4 days is the potential for a surprise deep southern Texas snow hit.
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#59
Posted 22 February 2012 - 01:55 PM
I think this most interesting weather possibility coming up in the next 3-4 days is the potential for a surprise deep southern Texas snow hit.
It would be some kind of winter if deep southern Texas beats Boston in snow totals.
#60
Posted 22 February 2012 - 01:58 PM
Not far from ice for the cad regions of NC at 168. HP over the lakes and sliding east, winds NNE, low dewpoints as precip is starting to slide in. Any pros care to comment on what the euro is showing?12Z Doc LR....meh.
TW
#61
Posted 22 February 2012 - 02:17 PM
JMA might have something up it's sleeve though it's hard to read in 24 hour panels. Between 72 and 96 it looks cold enoug for many in NC but hard to tell how much precip actually falls.
#62
Posted 22 February 2012 - 02:39 PM
The NAM keeps trying to show something in that timeframe.JMA might have something up it's sleeve though it's hard to read in 24 hour panels. Between 72 and 96 it looks cold enoug for many in NC but hard to tell how much precip actually falls.
#63
Posted 22 February 2012 - 03:08 PM
For fun, the DGEX has a nice hit for the NC Mountains and Foothills. An I-77 Special plus some love for the northern Triad and bordering counties with VA. Do we need to break out the rally cap?
#64
Posted 22 February 2012 - 03:35 PM
Do you have a map or link?For fun, the DGEX has a nice hit for the NC Mountains and Foothills. An I-77 Special plus some love for the northern Triad and bordering counties with VA. Do we need to break out the rally cap?
TW
#65
Posted 22 February 2012 - 03:42 PM
Do you have a map or link?
TW
Here's the link. Click on Accumulated Snowfall and the 84-192 hour snowfall. Burger will probably just post the picture for us, but I'm not sure how to do it.
http://www.emc.ncep..../dgexops.conus/
#66
Posted 22 February 2012 - 03:44 PM
That's from the 06z run right? Also, you are looking at hour 180 or so?Here's the link. Click on Accumulated Snowfall and the 84-192 hour snowfall. Burger will probably just post the picture for us, but I'm not sure how to do it.
http://www.emc.ncep..../dgexops.conus/
TW
#67
Posted 22 February 2012 - 03:47 PM
That's from the 06z run right? Also, you are looking at hour 180 or so?
TW
That's right. The DGEX only runs at 06z and 18z. You can also look at the precip type and the snow happens from 180-192. I'm sure it's useless this far out, but other models are hinting at a storm during this time period as well.
#68
Posted 22 February 2012 - 06:14 PM
In the review of the last storm (2-19/20), a number of people noted the GFS saw an Apps runner for a long time until it got closer to the event. Yet the European had a fairly good grasp on the storm from 8-10 days out (though it did waffle a bit). Given the GFS and European are saying the same respective things about the storm next week, I take that as a good sign since these patterns tend to repeat once they're set in motion. IMO
#69
Posted 22 February 2012 - 06:34 PM
if we are still talking about March 1-2 for a storm our locals just said 66 and 64 degrees with maybe rain? That would be way off
#70
Posted 22 February 2012 - 07:36 PM
Recent GFS runs would be good for a severe weather event in the 144-180 hr period next week centered somewhere around the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley/Mid South into Dixie Alley. Open Gulf and strong wind profiles at all levels, although still a ways out (Better than these 10-11 day fantasy storms we've been seeing though).
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