134 replies to this topic

[Snowstorms]

EC fails so bad.

For 10 hours straight we had "snow" on Feb 11, 2012 with temps remaining below 20F for the most part. Yet somehow, someway EC says it was 2.2mm of rain and a Trace of snow, when all was said and done. Yet every other station in the GTA.....even the downtown station had atleast 2" down for that day. See.....this is why I hate EC.

http://www.climate.w...eframe=1&Day=11

Hey Toronto blizzard, I recommend sending EC a complaint email about this. I'm sure you got 2" that day too.

[Snowstorms]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 08:37 PM, said:

The last "official" 6" storm at Toronto was the January 8, 2011 east-wind LES event. GHD was 5 and some change. Same with the March 23, 2011.

But as with LES it wasn't charitable in its snowfall distribution. I think it weakened enough by the time it reached Toronto Blizzard's house that he probably saw well under 6".

That early Feb 2011 storm totaled 6" over a period of 2 days. As for 12" inch snowstorm..were long overdue. I've been patient for a long time now. I'm running out of patience.

Yet DC-Boston over the past 2 years have been getting 12-18"+ snowstorms some how. Thats a disgrace lol.

You'd think we'd atleast see decent LES this year, but no. I got like 6-7" with LES in Dec 2010.

[toronto blizzard]

Snowstorms, on 21 February 2012 - 08:38 PM, said:

EC fails so bad.

For 10 hours straight we had "snow" on Feb 11, 2012 with temps remaining below 20F for the most part. Yet somehow, someway EC says it was 2.2mm of rain and a Trace of snow, when all was said and done. Yet every other station in the GTA.....even the downtown station had atleast 2" down for that day. See.....this is why I hate EC.

http://www.climate.w...eframe=1&Day=11

Hey Toronto blizzard, I recommend sending EC a complaint email about this. I'm sure you got 2" that day too.

Ya I think I did but I'm not to sure lol. It seems like forever since we've had a good snow. Oh well maybe this Friday something will happen.

[snowstormcanuck]

Snowstorms, on 21 February 2012 - 08:38 PM, said:

EC fails so bad.

For 10 hours straight we had "snow" on Feb 11, 2012 with temps remaining below 20F for the most part. Yet somehow, someway EC says it was 2.2mm of rain and a Trace of snow, when all was said and done. Yet every other station in the GTA.....even the downtown station had atleast 2" down for that day. See.....this is why I hate EC.

http://www.climate.w...eframe=1&Day=11

Hey Toronto blizzard, I recommend sending EC a complaint email about this. I'm sure you got 2" that day too.

I don't want to sound too harsh, but you've mentioned this about half a dozen times in the last week. It sucks and so does Pearson. No doubt about it. But I don't think repeatedly posting about it does much good.

[Snowstorms]

toronto blizzard, on 21 February 2012 - 08:42 PM, said:

Ya I think I did but I'm not to sure lol. It seems like forever since we've had a good snow. Oh well maybe this Friday something will happen.

Lol. We can only hope. i will have a blog post on this storm once I start seeing some consistency. Models like the CMC or the Nam don't phase at all and leave the southern vort energy hanging, thus we get nothing basically, just a weak frontal wave. If all goes well, this can be a decent storm from Southern MI thru EONT.

0z Nam will be interesting.

[snowstormcanuck]

Snowstorms, on 21 February 2012 - 08:41 PM, said:

That early Feb 2011 storm totaled 6" over a period of 2 days.

No it didn't. Not at downtown, Pearson, or North York. We're talking about Toronto right?

[dmc76]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 08:32 PM, said:

Let me try...

Our last 8"+ storm was the March 2008 blizzard. Since then, you've had 6 8"+ storms on:

-Good Friday 2008 superclipper
-December 19, 2008
-Something in February 2010? (I know that month overall was good for you)
-December 12, 2010
-GHD 2011
-February 20, 2011

M I close?

Im sure you missed one or two in 2009

[Snowstorms]

Geos, on 21 February 2012 - 08:38 PM, said:

Wow, it's been a long time since you a large snowstorm. Given your location, I was thinking Toronto catches the big snowstorms that move through this area on their way east more often. -guess I assumed wrong!

It doesn't happen every year but we always do inch out atleast a 8" snowstorm every year but since 08-09 that has become a problem. 2009-10 was blamed for the persistent WB -NAO anomaly thus suppressing every storm and this continued thru Mid Jan 2011. Then the models were hinting at a storm of the century in early Feb 2011 but as we got closer (12 hours out).....all that turned to dust and the ice crystals ruined everything, plus the sudden NW shift thus we only had decent snow for 8-10 hours and all that snow featured different ice crystals which accumulated much differently that most regular storms, given the extremely cold upper air temps. I got just under 8".

And then this year LOL.

Its more common to see 6-8" snowstorms here every year with a 12"+ snowstorm every other year.

[snowstormcanuck]

dmc76, on 21 February 2012 - 08:48 PM, said:

Im sure you missed one or two in 2009

???

Almost certain you guys didn't see anything major in December 2009 (everything suppressed south). Winter 2008-2009 ended in early February...so if I did it was in January 2009.

[Snowstorms]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 08:47 PM, said:

No it didn't. Not at downtown, Pearson, or North York. We're talking about Toronto right?

http://www.climate.w...011&timeframe=2

Just slightly under 6" at Buttonville. I measured under 8". All of my friends measured similar amounts.

[dmc76]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 08:51 PM, said:

???

Almost certain you guys didn't see anything major in December 2009 (everything suppressed south). Winter 2008-2009 ended in early February...so if I did it was in January 2009.

Im thinking Jan 2009. Mifreak will correct me any minute now

[snowstormcanuck]

Snowstorms, on 21 February 2012 - 08:50 PM, said:

Its more common to see 6-8" snowstorms here every year with a 12"+ snowstorm every other decade.

fyp

[snowstormcanuck]

Snowstorms, on 21 February 2012 - 08:52 PM, said:

http://www.climate.w...011&timeframe=2

Just slightly under 6" at Buttonville. I measured under 8". All of my friends measured similar amounts.

Yeah. But we're talking about Toronto.

[snowstormcanuck]

dmc76, on 21 February 2012 - 08:52 PM, said:

Im thinking Jan 2009. Mifreak will correct me any minute now

Could be January 27-28, 2009.

[Snowstorms]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 08:53 PM, said:

fyp

lol.

there were 2-3 storms over or at 12" in 2007-08. I still remember that "mega" storm the models were forecasting for early Feb 09. In the end only 3-4" fell, LOL.

Then before 2007-08, you'd have to back to Jan 04 where we had that LES storm.

[Angrysummons]

Snowstorms, on 21 February 2012 - 08:57 PM, said:

lol.

there were 2-3 storms over or at 12" in 2007-08. I still remember that "mega" storm the models were forecasting for early Feb 09. In the end only 3-4" fell, LOL.

Then before 2007-08, you'd have to back to Jan 04 where we had that LES storm.

I think that had a 978mb bomb over Erie,PA or close at about 144hrs. Talk about missampling the jet stream lol(the February 2009 flop).

[Snowstorms]

Angrysummons, on 21 February 2012 - 09:10 PM, said:

I think that had a 978mb bomb over Erie,PA or close at about 144hrs. Talk about missampling the jet stream lol(the February 2009 flop).

It was quite the excitement watching the models only to see it fail just 3-4 days before lol...to squat.

Accuwx began comparing it to the Superstorm (1993) lol.

[Andy]

baroclinic_instability, on 21 February 2012 - 06:34 PM, said:

This is deceiving because, even though the low level flow vectors are off the GOM, the moisture flux is junk as that Day 4 trough wipes the GOM out.

Cool, thanks. I wasn't thinking that there was actually "good" moisture down there to be drawn up. What is the best way to determine the quality of the moisture available?

Thanks for the clarification

[michsnowfreak]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 08:32 PM, said:

Let me try...

Our last 8"+ storm was the March 2008 blizzard. Since then, you've had 6 8"+ storms on:

-Good Friday 2008 superclipper
-December 19, 2008
-Something in February 2010? (I know that month overall was good for you)
-December 12, 2010
-GHD 2011
-February 20, 2011

M I close?

Pretty good guesses!...of your guesses my snowfall totals were:
~Good Friday 2008- 6.8"
~Dec 19, 2008- 8.2"
~Feb 2010 saw two warning criteria storms (8.0" on 9/10th and 7.7" on 21/22nd)
~Dec 12, 2012- 6.3"
~GHD- 10.1"
~Feb 20, 2011- 10.2"
So you were right with 4 of them, and you missed 8.1" on Jan 9/10, 2009...so the answer is actually 5 storms of 8"+ since your last (I was originally counting my 10.3" on Mar 4/5, 2008 as my 6th one, but I believe your 8"+ storm was after March 5th).

[snowstormcanuck]

michsnowfreak, on 21 February 2012 - 10:11 PM, said:

Pretty good guesses!...of your guesses my snowfall totals were:~Good Friday 2008- 6.8"~Dec 19, 2008- 8.2" ~Feb 2010 saw two warning criteria storms (8.0" on 9/10th and 7.7" on 21/22nd)~Dec 12, 2012- 6.3"~GHD- 10.1"~Feb 20, 2011- 10.2"So you were right with 4 of them, and you missed 8.1" on Jan 9/10, 2009...so the answer is actually 5 storms of 8"+ since your last (I was originally counting my 10.3" on Mar 4/5, 2008 as my 6th one, but I believe you 8"+ storm was after March 5th).

Yes. 8"+ with the March 7-8, 2008 Apps runner blizzard.

I would never have guessed that storm in Jan 2009. I don't even remember there being a storm early in the month of Jan that year. Time to go check out NARR...

[michsnowfreak]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 10:17 PM, said:

Yes. 8"+ with the March 7-8, 2008 Apps runner blizzard.

I would never have guessed that storm in Jan 2009. I don't even remember there being a storm early in the month of Jan that year. Time to go check out NARR...

Yeah that storm was interesting in that it was overall a long duration, close to 24-hour event, but a good 4 of the 8 inches fell in a 2-3 hour band on Jan 10th.Its certainly a forgotten storm because of all the action the past several years, but it was nice (and would stick out like a monster in this winter lol)

[Hoosier]

I realize it's "downtime" but we're straying too much here.

[weatherpsycho]

Michsnowfreak, What did you get April 6, 2009? I remember that great 9"-10" storm.

[SpartyOn]

michsnowfreak, on 21 February 2012 - 10:23 PM, said:

Yeah that storm was interesting in that it was overall a long duration, close to 24-hour event, but a good 4 of the 8 inches fell in a 2-3 hour band on Jan 10th.Its certainly a forgotten storm because of all the action the past several years, but it was nice (and would stick out like a monster in this winter lol)

Most def some fog played a roll per those pics. Always seems to happen around here.

[OHweather]

 ECM ens 120.gif   49.77K   0 downloads
The above capture of the 12z European model (ECMWF) ensemble means shows what the landscape will look like following the weekend storm over the northeast US. The weekend storm, by most accounts, will deepen significantly over southeastern Canada and temporarily raise heights over the Davis Strait, allowing for a transient psuedo -NAO and 50/50 low to form Sunday before the fast nature of the pattern forces the NAO to return to a positive state and heights to rise over the eastern US.

At the same time, ridging will thumb its way into southern Alaska and help carve out a trough over the Rockies. This trough will eject east into the central and eventually northeastern US starting Sunday, but it now appears the trough will eject east in pieces, resulting in more than one low pressure riding through the northern tier of the central US/southern Canada as opposed to one large storm cutting through the upper Midwest.

The first piece of energy will eject Sunday and reach Ontario by Monday evening. As one would expect, there are some variable model solutions with this ejecting energy…

 ECM 144.gif   96.61K   0 downloads

The 12z ECM shows a storm that ejects from the TX/OK Panhandle area and moves ENE into WI before deepening and cutting northeastward into the UP of MI by Monday evening. This solution would bring a swath of snow to the northern Plains east into northern IA, southern and eastern MN and a good chunk of WI and northern MI.

 GFS 144.gif   94.42K   0 downloads

The 12z GFS was not much different than the 12z ECM in the end…the GFS is a bit north with the low track early on and does not cut the low to the northwest of the Great Lakes as sharply as the ECM does, but the end tracks and end results are not too far off. It should be noted however that the GFS is several hours faster in taking the low pressure east than the ECM.

 GEFS 144.gif   149.91K   1 downloads

The 12z GFS ensembles however show more variation than the operational GFS/ECM have in their solutions. The ensembles show a wide range of solutions, from a weaker storm that ejects faster and tracks a bit farther south, to a wound up solution over the western lakes by Monday morning like the operational models are currently showing, to in one case almost no storm at all.

 ECM ENS 144 surface.gif   52.18K   1 downloads

The 12z ECM ensemble mean shows a solution that is a bit faster and a bit flatter than both of the operational models, which seems to be the trend amongst the GFS ensembles as well, sans a few members.

So, what solution is most likely?

My initial inclination would be to expect the slightly more progressive (faster) and farther south solution with less of a hook north into Lake Superior than the operational models show. When referencing the large scale pattern shown in the European model ensemble mean to open the post, my logic is fairly simple:

Although brief, confluence from the departing storm over eastern Canada will favor a high pressure over south-central Canada that will make it hard for a storm to hook north.

However, there are some factors that may allow for the more NW track to win out…

 gfs_namer_132_300_wnd_ht.gif   73.02K   0 downloads

The 12z GFS, shown above, was close to digging the northern stream shortwave far enough south to partially phase with the subtropical jet stream energy. If phasing were to occur, the jet streak would intensify, divergence in the left-exit portion of the jet streak (which the SLP will be co-located with) would increase and the storm would intensify faster, allowing the shortwave associated with the storm to take on a negative tilt west of the lakes and allow for a nice left-hook in the surface low track.

As also noted above, the NAO will quickly return to a positive state by Monday and southeast ridging will try to develop. This may allow heights east of the Great Lakes to rise enough to help the storm take on a negative tilt west of the Great Lakes.

Given seasonal trends and the fast nature of the pattern, I will for now favor the less amplified solution which may allow good snows to get into much of IA/WI/MI Sunday night into Monday, however we will need to watch for a potential partial phase between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream and rising heights east of the Great Lakes, as those factors may allow for the more amplified solution to play out.

The very cold air and Canadian high pressure just north of the surface low should allow for a nice band of powdery snows and high winds to the north/west of the low track in either solution.

[Geos]

michsnowfreak, on 21 February 2012 - 10:23 PM, said:

Yeah that storm was interesting in that it was overall a long duration, close to 24-hour event, but a good 4 of the 8 inches fell in a 2-3 hour band on Jan 10th.Its certainly a forgotten storm because of all the action the past several years, but it was nice (and would stick out like a monster in this winter lol)

I got a foot out of that storm. 01.09-10.2009
That was a good one!

Great analysis OHweather!

Edited by Geos, 21 February 2012 - 10:43 PM.

[SpartyOn]

Its been a few years (or more) since a good late Feb severe threat graced SeMi. Not holding my breath

[Stebo48858]

SpartyOn, on 21 February 2012 - 10:45 PM, said:

Its been a few years (or more) since a good late Feb severe threat graced SeMi. Not holding my breath

This system has a better chance of occluding and coming through as snow than being a severe threat right now.

[Angrysummons]

Little chance of snow with the WAA. Models always struggle with that, especially the GFS.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

this storm is taking one of the oddest tracks I've seen in awhile, as per the 0z GFS. Congrats Minnesoota and North Dakota!

[daddylonglegs]

oz looks a tad north of 18z...

[Chicago Storm]

Ottawa Blizzard, on 21 February 2012 - 11:25 PM, said:

this storm is taking one of the oddest tracks I've seen in awhile, as per the 0z GFS. Congrats Minnesoota and North Dakota!

a CO to MN track is far from odd.

[Geos]

daddylonglegs, on 21 February 2012 - 11:29 PM, said:

oz looks a tad north of 18z...

It's pretty much the same. North Platte, NE to about Red Wing, MN track.

[baroclinic_instability]

SpartyOn, on 21 February 2012 - 10:45 PM, said:

Its been a few years (or more) since a good late Feb severe threat graced SeMi. Not holding my breath

I wouldn't either. The GOM is closed in terms of moisture flux. Any severe threat ends there.

[Hoosier]

Although there is still a storm, the recent runs are about as tame as you can get for most in this subforum. The significant snow is north and there isn't enough time for adequate moisture return for a substantial severe threat.