134 replies to this topic

[snowstormcanuck]

Hoosier, on 21 February 2012 - 11:44 PM, said:

Although there is still a storm, the recent runs are about as tame as you can get for most in this subforum. The significant snow is north and there isn't enough time for adequate moisture return for a substantial severe threat.

Another instance where a GEFS "storm of the year" fizzles as it gets closer. Although I think the EURO was also bullish with this one back in the D8-10 timeframe.

[andyhb]

Hoosier, on 21 February 2012 - 11:44 PM, said:

Although there is still a storm, the recent runs are about as tame as you can get for most in this subforum. The significant snow is north and there isn't enough time for adequate moisture return for a substantial severe threat.

Unless something radically changes for the svr threat across the SE this Thursday/Friday, looks like February will be a quiet month for severe wx.

[michsnowfreak]

weatherpsycho, on 21 February 2012 - 10:26 PM, said:

Michsnowfreak, What did you get April 6, 2009?  I remember that great 9"-10" storm.

Only 4.6" imby but 7.2" just down the road at DTW. Still an excellent and scenic storm for April, but Im thinking the track, time of year, and my location on the water is what "screwed" me in the last snowstorm of the season, and being the concluding snow of a 2-season total (2007-08 + 2008-09) of 143" its easy to see why I never talk much of this storm. Incidentally as a result 2008-09 is the only season where DTWs official snowfall beat mine (65.7" to 64.8").

[Jonger1150]

What model is the NWS looking at that brings in 48 degrees on Monday in Detroit?

[Harry]

Jonger1150, on 22 February 2012 - 12:32 AM, said:

What model is the NWS looking at that brings in 48 degrees on Monday in Detroit?

Probably the euro. 12z was close to that and well the 00z now has 50+ making a run for the thumb ahead of the cold front.

[Geos]

Harry, on 22 February 2012 - 01:39 AM, said:

Probably the euro. 12z was close to that and well the 00z now has 50+ making a run for the thumb ahead of the cold front.

Yeah I would say so for here too. Sunday Hi: 39° here with chance of rain, then 27° and snow at night. Looks like it gets warmer in MI then back this far west.

[daddylonglegs]

6z is even further north (Hayward, WI), weaker and pretty much a dud around these parts. Euro looks a little south of the GFS.

[magoos0728]

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha....ohhh. This winter...whew...funny.

[gosaints]

daddylonglegs, on 22 February 2012 - 08:25 AM, said:

6z is even further north (Hayward, WI), weaker and pretty much a dud around these parts. Euro looks a little south of the GFS.

Ha ha. The EURO would bring a line rain showers through if nothing else.

[Alek]

i thought this one had promise for the Minny crew, bummer

[Powerball]

michsnowfreak, on 22 February 2012 - 12:23 AM, said:

Only 4.6" imby but 7.2" just down the road at DTW. Still an excellent and scenic storm for April, but Im thinking the track, time of year, and my location on the water is what "screwed" me in the last snowstorm of the season, and being the concluding snow of a 2-season total (2007-08 + 2008-09) of 143" its easy to see why I never talk much of this storm. Incidentally as a result 2008-09 is the only season where DTWs official snowfall beat mine (65.7" to 64.8").

The problem with April 6th, 2009 were two-fold.

1. We were briefly impacted by the dry slot (.

2. We still had a problem of getting under the heavier returns for a significant period of time (downsloping from E/NE wind initially?), unlike the NW suburbs where 6"+ and thundersnow fell.

I don't think the water had as much of an impact.

As for January 9th-10th, I remember that storm very well (if someone can bring up the dates, I can certainly remember every little detail about the event). It was a strange one, and it did overachieve locally. However, it consisted of two bursts of energy. The first wave had already dumped several inches of snow along a Chicago-Toledo line the day before (we got some fog-laden light snow from it too, huge flakes), then the second wave dumped more snow along those areas (12"+ special for them, go figure), before the area of snow was bumped northward giving us 4-8" total. It did overachieve locally, definitely. However, It would be a stretch to say all the snow here fell in the heavy band that sat over us for 2-3 hours. 3-5" had already fallen before the band developed (mostly from the heavier burst we had before sunrise).

Then the February 22nd, 2010 storm. Technically it overachieved locally, but overall the storm underachieved. Not even 48 hours before that storm, we were talking about the potential for 10"+ amounts from Chicago to Saginaw (while we would have rain/mixing issues). Then it gradually weakened while trending SE and then you have our 6-8" storm.

[gosaints]

Just from looking at the GFS briefly, it seems like the GFS has to be underdoing the WAA with this storm.

12z GFS says not much of a storm at all.

[gosaints]

Alek, on 22 February 2012 - 09:03 AM, said:

i thought this one had promise for the Minny crew, bummer

I am gonna go with you on this storm as well. As we get closer I am guessing it will trend south, drier, and probably warmer.

[Alek]

gosaints, on 22 February 2012 - 11:18 AM, said:

I am gonna go with you on this storm as well. As we get closer I am guessing it will trend south, drier, and probably warmer.

I haven't been following this one too much and have been beating that drum for the one before it, this things looks to occlude super quick and then scoot harmlessly east.

[gosaints]

Alek, on 22 February 2012 - 11:19 AM, said:

I haven't been following this one too much and have been beating that drum for the one before it, this things looks to occlude super quick and then scoot harmlessly east.

And doesnt manage to pull down much cool air in its wake it this run is correct.

[Alek]

gosaints, on 22 February 2012 - 11:20 AM, said:

And doesnt manage to pull down much cool air in its wake it this run is correct.

I'm moving on to watching what happens with the leftover energy in the southwest close towards the end of the month.


EDIT: fantasy land but the gulf will be open for the first time in a while and there will be potential for a nice baroclinic zone...not that we haven't seen these fail time after time.

[daddylonglegs]

12z



looks a hair south of the 6z, but still weak any not overly impressive.

[snowstormcanuck]

With the D2-3 storm not expected to deepen as much as previously anticipated, I'm going to retract my DVN-MKE-MBS call. The more northern solution might indeed be correct. But this doesn't look like the big deal it once did anyway. Looks like the models may now be trying to emphasize that second piece of energy Aleking alluded to.

[BowMeHunter]

looking good for some late season snowmobiling to the north.. hopefully the second cutter brings some heavy rains and gets the steel head running up the tribs.

[Geos]

Looks like Green Bay might do pretty good with snow. Maybe northern WI will get there 12" storm for the season.

[BowMeHunter]

Euro gives some OV love with the 2nd storm. No love for up north wi on the 12z euro.

[Chicago Storm]

Geos, on 22 February 2012 - 01:21 PM, said:

Maybe northern WI will get there 12" storm for the season.

that's looking unlikely at this point.

GFS, ECMWF and ENS have backed off on the potential.

[daddylonglegs]

Just about time to put a fork in this one...12z Euro takes it from Pierre, SD to the UP of Michigan (L Superior)...

[Alek]

storm after this is going to be the real deal

[andyhb]

Alek, on 22 February 2012 - 08:04 PM, said:

storm after this is going to be the real deal

All modes of wx possible with that thing...

[UW-weather]

Here is my snow map for this storm, looks to be a fluffy snow that could accumulate quickly with high snow ratios

more at http://midwestweathe...k.blogspot.com/

Attached Files

•  2-25-2012.jpg   91.56K   0 downloads

[Hoosier]

Use this thread for tonight/tomorrow

[wishforsnow]

Winter storm warning here for the Keweenaw. Getting Lake enhancement. 7-11 inches expected. Snowing heavier here now.

[weatherpsycho]

wishforsnow, on 26 February 2012 - 11:21 AM, said:

Winter storm warning here for the Keweenaw. Getting Lake enhancement. 7-11 inches expected. Snowing heavier here now.

Just looked at the MTU webcams. Looks nice!!

[wishforsnow]

Ended up with 11 inches and that was from a coop observer here in Hancock. Suppose to get 6-10 inches Wednesday and maybe more the a foot the coming weekend. Better get some gas for the snowblower.