134 replies to this topic

[kab2791]

All models indicating this storm system. Latest 00Z GFS bring a band of 6-12" across southern MN, northen IA, WI, and nothern lower MI.

00Z Euro showing strong low pressure into MN as H5 trough digs deep in west.

One major positive: Abundant cold air supply

[Hoosier]

Something has been showing up in/near this timeframe for a while. Details way up in the air though.

[PatrickSumner]

Hoosier, on 20 February 2012 - 11:43 PM, said:

Something has been showing up in/near this timeframe for a while. Details way up in the air though.

Am I right Hoosier in saying the GFS gives us at least a couple inches of snow during this time frame?

[BeastFromtheEast]

Get ready DLL..

[Hoosier]

PatrickSumner, on 20 February 2012 - 11:47 PM, said:

Am I right Hoosier in saying the GFS gives us at least a couple inches of snow during this time frame?

That surface low track is quite unfavorable. I think it would be rain changing to snow with little accumulation verbatim.

[Powerball]

Congrats to Minneapolis.

[Geos]

Madison may not be a bad place to be for this storm. La Crosse, Rochester, and Winona really get into it on this run. 15"+

[Thundersnow12]

0z GFS continues slow slow south and stronger trend of the sfc low. something to watch.

[kab2791]

The strength of the previous system and confluence left behind will need to be monitored to see how far north the storm will track, i.e. whether we have a more SW-NE oriented track or a more E-W track.

[Stebo48858]

Seasonal trends says a lot of us to the South are way in the game still.

[wisconsinwx]

Geos, on 21 February 2012 - 12:06 AM, said:

Madison may not be a bad place to be for this storm. La Crosse, Rochester, and Winona really get into it on this run. 15"+

Definitely atm. Heck, I'd be happy with getting 6 inches as this run shows. This reminds me of typical Dec/Feb blizzards like the ones in Dec. 09 and 10, as well as particularly the two part storm from Feb. 21-23, 2007 I believe. La Crosse and other parts of C Wisconsin got upwards of a foot and a half to two feet of snow in that weekend event.

[wisconsinwx]

Stebo48858, on 21 February 2012 - 12:09 AM, said:

Seasonal trends says a lot of us to the South are way in the game still.

Those seasonal trends also say if that happens this will be a WWA at best. I suppose this should be pretty clear by Friday or so.

[Hoosier]

Only thing I'm buying right now is that there will be a trough in the west. How many waves may come out...who knows.

[daddylonglegs]

Looks good ... 2 runs and a lot of earlier runs have been hinting at something around this time frame... and enough cold air behind it to kill all my peach fruit buds !

[Ajdos]

I think this one might be a I80 N special...Should run along the B-Zone..good setup..enough cold air...hopefully we get some decent snows, as I'm ready to move into spring...however would be pathetic if we ask "Where is spring" in April.. LOL.. Would not surprise me tho lol..

[baroclinic_instability]

Powerball, on 20 February 2012 - 11:59 PM, said:

Congrats to Minneapolis.

That would be a congrats to Rochester.

[Geos]

wisconsinwx, on 21 February 2012 - 12:10 AM, said:

Definitely atm. Heck, I'd be happy with getting 6 inches as this run shows. This reminds me of typical Dec/Feb blizzards like the ones in Dec. 09 and 10, as well as particularly the two part storm from Feb. 21-23, 2007 I believe. La Crosse and other parts of C Wisconsin got upwards of a foot and a half to two feet of snow in that weekend event.

Yeah I remember those storms. I think Milwaukee would do good in a setup like this. The cold air is wrapped up tight close to the low, which is a positive.

...February 23-24th you were under a Blizzard Warning.

I got 4.8 5.8" of snow from that with a spell of freezing rain/drizzle in between the rounds of snow. Winter storm warnings were up here.

[baroclinic_instability]

One thing is for sure...GFS has little support for its solution. ECMWF/CMC would suggest a much more prolonged event with weaker disturbances ejecting off the main western trough with a more -PNA look to it.

[wisconsinwx]

baroclinic_instability, on 21 February 2012 - 12:49 AM, said:

One thing is for sure...GFS has little support for its solution. ECMWF/CMC would suggest a much more prolonged event with weaker disturbances ejecting off the main western trough with a more -PNA look to it.

So do you at this point see similarities b/w what is being depicted by most of the models and the Feb. 23/24 event I mentioned above? That was a two part storm here; a smaller wave, then a more copious round with blizzard warnings over a decent sized area and pretty similar track to what is being depicted at this point.

[baroclinic_instability]

wisconsinwx, on 21 February 2012 - 12:54 AM, said:

So do you at this point see similarities b/w what is being depicted by most of the models and the Feb. 23/24 event I mentioned above? That was a two part storm here; a smaller wave, then a more copious round with blizzard warnings over a decent sized area and pretty similar track to what is being depicted at this point.

Interesting you mention the Feb 24-25th event. That was a classic COlorado Low. I distinctly remember that because I was in college and all my friends in MN were calling me about that storm. Of course one week later they got pummeled again. Epic week period for MN where some areas saw 2+ feet with both storms.

The first storm:
 022500.png   102.89K   1 downloads




Second storm a week later:
 030121.png   100.16K   0 downloads

[baroclinic_instability]

As for similarities...I don't really see much since the GOM is completely different with this storm threat. True CO lows deepen significantly off latent energy release with significant GOM moisture...this storm threat won't have that..at least as currently modeled.

[cmichweather]

baroclinic_instability, on 21 February 2012 - 01:02 AM, said:

As for similarities...I don't really see much since the GOM is completely different with this storm threat. True CO lows deepen significantly off latent energy release with significant GOM moisture...this storm threat won't have that..at least as currently modeled.

Should be fun to see if this can be the first system to come out in one piece like the gfs or if the seasonal trend of energy laying back and digging into the SW i.e. ggem. As of right now lean ggem but who knows a trend isn't a rule and sooner or later we'll get some nice wrapped up systems coming out in one piece.

[baroclinic_instability]

cmichweather, on 21 February 2012 - 01:09 AM, said:

Should be fun to see if this can be the first system to come out in one piece like the gfs or if the seasonal trend of energy laying back and digging into the SW i.e. ggem. As of right now lean ggem but who knows a trend isn't a rule and sooner or later we'll get some nice wrapped up systems coming out in one piece.

Even in the GFS form the GOM is closed. Would have to eject the perfect wave or it will be nothing more than a glorified frontal wave. That said, it is nice to see a decent threat with true arctic air. My gut says lean CMC/ECMWF. That said...still has potential to be interesting either way.

[Geos]

wisconsinwx, on 21 February 2012 - 12:54 AM, said:

So do you at this point see similarities b/w what is being depicted by most of the models and the Feb. 23/24 event I mentioned above? That was a two part storm here; a smaller wave, then a more copious round with blizzard warnings over a decent sized area and pretty similar track to what is being depicted at this point.

Here is a nice recap of the storm:

http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=022407_snow

...wow, about 2 feet out by DLL!

[baroclinic_instability]

Not lying...looking at some of these maps saddens me...what a debacle of a winter we have had. Not one good Colorado Low/Panhandle Hooker all winter. For a mid-westerner, those are a part of life. You have to have one for a winter to be considered decent. Besides a few freak storms, everything ejecting the Rockies N of Colorado has been Junk...and they have all been deep PV's that bomb and stall.

[cmichweather]

baroclinic_instability, on 21 February 2012 - 01:12 AM, said:

Even in the GFS form the GOM is closed. Would have to eject the perfect wave or it will be nothing more than a glorified frontal wave. That said, it is nice to see a decent threat with true arctic air. My gut says lean CMC/ECMWF. That said...still has potential to be interesting either way.

My gut agrees but I do have a bit of a hunch that this thing will really wind up further west it's been modeled for extremely far in advance and will have a ton of energy with it, these usually will go nuts as they are sat. derived for the next few days.

[cmichweather]

baroclinic_instability, on 21 February 2012 - 01:15 AM, said:

Not lying...looking at some of these maps saddens me...what a debacle of a winter we have had. Not one good Colorado Low/Panhandle Hooker all winter. For a mid-westerner, those are a part of life. You have to have one for a winter to be considered decent. Besides a few freak storms, everything ejecting the Rockies N of Colorado has been Junk...and they have all been deep PV's that bomb and stall.

I think with this snowfall we are around 14" ish for snow. It is really an insane pattern for this location, the absolute warmest winter ever, and (I haven't checked) at least top ten least snowiest winters.

[baroclinic_instability]

cmichweather, on 21 February 2012 - 01:19 AM, said:

My gut agrees but I do have a bit of a hunch that this thing will really wind up further west it's been modeled for extremely far in advance and will have a ton of energy with it, these usually will go nuts as they are sat. derived for the next few days.

Very well could happen, but I am not that confident. Working off cold air alone (while arctic in nature) is more difficult for an intense bomb without latent energy to help it along. In ECMWF/CMC form...it wouldn't even matter.

[andyhb]

Awaiting the 00z Euro to see if it continues the potential for svr that it has been consistently showing for the past 3 days or more and potential correlations with the GFS (which have been few and far between).

[baroclinic_instability]

0Z ECMWF looks much different through day 5. I like it.

[mnweather]

988 over ne colorado at day 6 on the euro

[andyhb]

Ok, that H5 profile looks nasty...wow. Wondering if there will be time for moisture advection...cause if that happens

[baroclinic_instability]

Holy mother. That would be incredible.

[mnweather]

983 over my head, wow

[baroclinic_instability]

Verbatim that would rival some of the worst blizzards ever for portions of Nodak.