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Feb. 19th 2012 Winter Storm Obs./Disc.

Snow

1062 replies to this topic

#36
BIG FROSTY

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Temp 39.7
DP 34.7
Raining

#37
burgertime

  • Everything's coming up Milhouse!

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Temp dropping now, got 47 with a wetbulb of 44.

#38
strongwxnc

  • SNOW....please

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Welcome ! I live about 25mins to your NE in Rutherford county.
Thanks for the OBS!

Temp has dropped from 48 (at 7am) to 44 (currently) :)

I've been a lurker over this way for a while this is my first post but figured it's a good a time as any. I live about 2 miles from the NC line in NW Cherokee County, SC @ 880ft elevation. Currently readings from my Davis right now are:

Temp: 45.9
DP: 44
WD: NE @ 6mph



#39
weatherguysc

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Thanks for the welcome, my brother in law lives in Harris I think that is in Rutherford County. I hope we can get on down in the temps, and have the moisture around when it happens later on today. I'll try to keep giving updates from here throughout the day as time allows.

Welcome ! I live about 25mins to your NE in Rutherford county.
Thanks for the OBS!

Temp has dropped from 48 (at 7am) to 44 (currently) :)



#40
Lowpressure

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47.8F down a bit from earlier. Light rain.

#41
burgertime

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The NAM @9 has some interaction with our two pieces of energy...it's not much but better than keeping them totally separate.

#42
DaculaWeather

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According to Huntsville NWS the two will remain out of phase.

#43
Poimen

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rain falling now.

#44
burgertime

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@12 nice slug of precip around RDU...850's are close for all snow..gonna have to look at soundings per this run.

#45
WilkesboroDude

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39degrees, 37 DP with rain. Both dropping.

Figured I would wake up to a Winter Storm Warning.

#46
burgertime

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According to Huntsville NWS the two will remain out of phase.


It appears closer on this run..it might be something to watch. If our energy is just a little bit slower making it to the coast that northern energy has a shot.

#47
burgertime

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Looks good for RDU @15

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#48
Cold Rain

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I have a feeling that the 18Z runs from yesterday will probably end up being the best runs we'll see for this storm. It will be really interesting if the systems phase in time, although it seems like that's the low probability option at this point. Gonna be fun watching.

#49
SBUWX23

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a quick glance shows it nearly isothermal. no warm nose at 00z. Also better saturation aloft.

@12 nice slug of precip around RDU...850's are close for all snow..gonna have to look at soundings per this run.



#50
NCSU2005

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45 degrees and dew point at 38 currently in Holly Springs...roughly 15 miles south of RDU

#51
burgertime

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a quick glance shows it nearly isothermal. no warm nose at 00z. Also better saturation aloft.


Nice win for them...I'm almost resolved to give up on this one for MBY..hopefully I see some flakes just fly tonight.

#52
Poimen

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.25 qpf after 0Z for extremem NE Wake county and points NE per the NAM, probably all snow.

#53
Carvers Gap

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Interesting to see NWS in Morristown not go w/ HPC for most of NE TN. Not even a winter weather advisory in the valley. Interesting disconnect since this was issued at 4:00 AM.

...SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS...

WINTER WEATHER SOLUTIONS CONVERGING UPON A GFS/ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTION FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL AXIS EMERGING IN NORTHEASTERN
TENNESSEE...EASTERN KENTUCKY FOOTHILLS THEN MIGRATING EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. H85-H7
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND LIKELY TO ADD A FEW MINUTES TO AN
HOUR OF MODERATE SNOWFALL...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE DISCUSSION FROM A
COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO...CAN THE SNOW RATE OUTPACE THE MELTING RATE
TODAY? UNLIKELY FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...OR AFTER 20/00Z...DEFINITELY WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...AND A SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL TRACKING ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA LINE TO THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC QPFS AND A
SIMPLE TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO GETTING SNOW TO FALL FROM A THERMAL
COLUMN THAT'LL BE ABOVE 32F WITH 20F+ DEW POINTS NEAR THE SURFACE.
BETTER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH GENERALLY 4-8 INCH STORM
TOTALS ABOVE 2000-2500FT MSL...AND LOCALLY 10-12 INCH MAXES
POSSIBLE.

Attached Images

  • day1_psnow_gt_04.gif


#54
Carvers Gap

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Here is their other map.

Attached Images

  • day1_psnow_gt_08.gif


#55
WeatherNC

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A little colder here this am than I was expecting. 43/36 at the airport, RWI went up to 46/36 from 43/34 last ob. Sharp cutoff though, Kinston 20 miles to the south is at 46/43. MHX CWA void of any advisories and don't see SN even mentioned in the grids/morning package. Highs ranging from 49-55, I will take it as a good sign if PGV does not above 45. Extrap the RAH advisories a couple more counties east and Pitt would be on the southern fringe. Close call, but this is not horseshoes. Could be the type of event where we see mhx play catchup, been several years since one of those types, waiting for an advisory to verify before it is issued.

#56
SBUWX23

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0.7 at 850 mb at 00z for RDU

Nice win for them...I'm almost resolved to give up on this one for MBY..hopefully I see some flakes just fly tonight.



#57
strongwxnc

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You are correct. Harris is off of 221 just over the line by a few miles.

Winds have really picked up over the past hour. Temp is bouncing from 44-45......

Good luck folks!


Thanks for the welcome, my brother in law lives in Harris I think that is in Rutherford County. I hope we can get on down in the temps, and have the moisture around when it happens later on today. I'll try to keep giving updates from here throughout the day as time allows.



#58
avianman

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Here in northern Catawba County, it was 49° when I got up this morning at 5:30 and now it's 41.8° and DP of 35°

#59
packbacker

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Nice win for them...I'm almost resolved to give up on this one for MBY..hopefully I see some flakes just fly tonight.


Durham looks to do better than Raleigh, but we will see what happens. I still think 2-3 hours of snow looks reasonable.

#60
Blue Ridge

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Wish me luck, everyone; I'm leaving for Brevard, NC for a few hours. I'm banking on I-26 being in decent shape around 3:00 pm for my return trip. Color me skeptical because I doubt little if any snow will have accumulated by that point.

#61
calculus1

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Here in northern Catawba County, it was 49° when I got up this morning at 5:30 and now it's 41.8° and DP of 35°


Same here. Down to 41.8, but my dew point is still sitting at 40.

#62
Poimen

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2-4" for the Triangle, per the NAM. So when we factor in the obligatory warm soil temps we get to our 1-3". ;) Been raining here for about 30 minutes and the temp has fallen from 42 to 40.

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#63
HKY_WX

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After looking at the 00z euro this morn', the radar is pretty much perfectly aligned with it. Temps are as well. At 7a, it had hickory at 43 and we're at 41 right now at 9a. So thing seem on track at this point.

#64
dntjr

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Roanoke, Va. reporting light rain/snow mix at 38/31

#65
WilkesboroDude

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Get ready folks, cold air is bleeding through as we speak.

Boone already down to 32 with accumulating snow .Ground turning white as far east as eastern Alleghany County. Upper 30s showing up in Wilkes/Surry.

#66
Amos83

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Light raining falling here now... team has dropped from 50 to 46 in past 30 minutes with onset of the rain. Even if I miss out on seeing any snow it will be fun watching this unfold tolday. Good luck everyone!

#67
landof2rivers

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It's been snowing since I first looked out around 8 this morning in Boone. Small flakes and starting to cover grassy areas. Temp is 34.

#68
strongwxnc

  • SNOW....please

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in case you need to get your snow fix.. Here is another great set of cams from Boone..

http://cams.appstate.edu/



Get ready folks, cold air is bleeding through as we speak.

Boone already down to 32 with accumulating snow .Ground turning white as far east as eastern Alleghany County. Upper 30s showing up in Wilkes/Surry.



#69
oconeexman

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You are correct. Harris is off of 221 just over the line by a few miles.

Winds have really picked up over the past hour. Temp is bouncing from 44-45......

Good luck folks!

Good luck Mark! and all you NC folks! You dont have any idea how jealous I am!! Sucks not being a part of this one but at least somebody is going to see some snow.

#70
strongwxnc

  • SNOW....please

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Via Matthew East

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

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