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It's four days out, so it's about time to have a thread going for this threat. Probably not a high potential for a significant event, but a chance someone sees advisory level snows out of this.
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February 20-21 Potential StormMaybe a decent snow event finally?
Started By
wisconsinwx
, 17 Feb 2012 03:23 PM
#1
Posted 17 February 2012 - 03:23 PM
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#3
Posted 17 February 2012 - 03:28 PM
Chicago Storm, on 17 February 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:
BL is questionable once again.
That's def a problem that won't be going away. This time, I just hope it doesn't turn into suppressed crap once again.
#4
Posted 17 February 2012 - 03:34 PM
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I doubt it will be supressed.
#5
Posted 17 February 2012 - 03:36 PM
mnweather, on 17 February 2012 - 03:34 PM, said:
I doubt it will be supressed.
this little turd before the potential big daddy? I wouldn't be so sure.
#6
Posted 17 February 2012 - 03:38 PM
mnweather, on 17 February 2012 - 03:34 PM, said:
I doubt it will be supressed.
It looks like Minnesota will get some snow regardless with the frontal passage. Then, a low takes shape in the middle of the country on Monday. Right now, it's possible that low becomes suppressed and weaker as time goes on, given seasonal trends.
#7
Posted 17 February 2012 - 03:40 PM
The 12z Euro looked better precip wise around and digging the trof further south but as Joe said, the BL temps aren't good.
#8
Posted 17 February 2012 - 03:46 PM
Someone looks to get snow, but who is the question of the hour!
#9
Posted 17 February 2012 - 03:59 PM
Geos, on 17 February 2012 - 03:46 PM, said:
Someone looks to get snow, but who is the question of the hour!
#10
Posted 17 February 2012 - 06:26 PM
Alek, on 17 February 2012 - 03:36 PM, said:
this little turd before the potential big daddy? I wouldn't be so sure.
#11
Posted 17 February 2012 - 06:44 PM
baroclinic_instability, on 17 February 2012 - 06:26 PM, said:
Day 10 Big daddy threat is actually legit. I have been watching the medium range closely for a while. For weenie sake, 12Z ECMWF would be a dream.
Yes it has alot of potential. Quite the temperature gradient depicted by the 12z Euro. Only in a Winter like this will you have 2 decently strong HP anomalies in Quebec with the storm tracking thru the Northern Great Lakes lol .
Any preliminary thoughts man?
#12
Posted 17 February 2012 - 07:24 PM
Looks borderline in these parts...could be a rain/snow mix around these parts. Heavy slop?
#13
Posted 17 February 2012 - 07:26 PM
Interesting, but as others have mentioned we look like we may have to deal with warm BL temps yet again. Hard to get too excited given the recent past. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
#14
Posted 17 February 2012 - 11:17 PM
lol at the differences between the 0z runs of the NAM and GFS.
#16
Posted 17 February 2012 - 11:29 PM
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Thundersnow12, on 17 February 2012 - 11:17 PM, said:
lol at the differences between the 0z runs of the NAM and GFS.
Nice
#17
Posted 17 February 2012 - 11:43 PM
Geos, on 17 February 2012 - 11:25 PM, said:
0z GFS 81 hours:
Marginal temperatures for snow in N IL.
Marginal temperatures for snow in N IL.
still too warm in the low levels.
#18
Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:02 AM
Thundersnow12, on 17 February 2012 - 11:43 PM, said:
still too warm in the low levels.
Wunderground maps show a flip flop between snow and rain.
#19
Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:11 AM
Geos, on 18 February 2012 - 12:02 AM, said:
Wunderground maps show a flip flop between snow and rain.
try checking some soundings..
#20
Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:13 AM
Hard for me to get excited about this event. Even if the GFS solution pans out, the freezing level just looks a bit too high. There's probably the same problem on the 12z Euro but can't tell without soundings.
#21
Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:34 AM
Thundersnow12, on 18 February 2012 - 12:11 AM, said:
try checking some soundings..
What site can I access different soundings at?
#22
Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:46 AM
Just another in a long series of systems that lack the normal cold BL conditions we would normally expect in WINTER. This has been the first winter I can remember when we have such a problem with marginal BL temps without the impedance of strong WAA, at the surface or aloft.
#23
Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:51 AM
GFS would be all rain even up here... this is just nuts. Its Feb and looking like rain.
Could be decent for someone in MN...
See if the Euro goes north with it on the 0z ...
Could be decent for someone in MN...
See if the Euro goes north with it on the 0z ...
#25
Posted 18 February 2012 - 01:38 AM
daddylonglegs, on 18 February 2012 - 12:51 AM, said:
GFS would be all rain even up here... this is just nuts. Its Feb and looking like rain.
Could be decent for someone in MN...
See if the Euro goes north with it on the 0z ...
Could be decent for someone in MN...
See if the Euro goes north with it on the 0z ...
EURO keeps the storm in the same general area. Snow forms in MO and streaks towards Detroit.
#27
Posted 18 February 2012 - 11:51 AM
FWIW, the Euro on the wundermap shows a nice band of snow from central Illinois, through LAF/northern Indiana, and up into southeast Michigan.
#29
Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:16 PM
daddylonglegs, on 18 February 2012 - 12:05 PM, said:
What's the GFS showing???
Widespread light snow north of about I-80 in Iowa/IL. Heavier precip down near I-80/points south but BL warmer as you'd expect down here. It's arguable there could be a decent band of snow somewhere where the transition zone sets up. ATM east-central/southeast Iowa through northwest IL look okay on the NAM/GFS/GEM.
#30
Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:19 PM
Latest NAM shows snow near I-80 and north. BL looks like it's overcome, compared to the GFS.
#31
Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:39 PM
Yeah... I looked at the GFS...spits out some precip, most likely a wet snow (temps look right around freezing at the surface)... 1 to 3 inches? looks like another little turd snow.
#32
Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:55 PM
12z NAM would be nice here if it wasn't trying to warm the surface to the upper 30s.
#33
Posted 18 February 2012 - 01:45 PM
The Euro still appears to be the strongest with the piece of energy swinging through the area. Still a nice, but brief, band of snow from southeast Iowa to Chi/Mil.
#34
Posted 18 February 2012 - 01:59 PM
hawkeye_wx, on 18 February 2012 - 01:45 PM, said:
The Euro still appears to be the strongest with the piece of energy swinging through the area. Still a nice, but brief, band of snow from southeast Iowa to Chi/Mil.
#35
Posted 18 February 2012 - 02:21 PM
Does anyone know how accurate those wunder maps are? It seems like they were too widespread with snow coverage when I looked at them a couple times before.
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