215 replies to this topic

[Powerball]

This thread marks a milestorm for the 2011-2012 winter, where as we actually have our first truly organized and widespread winter storm to track in the medium range.

These type of systems too do tend to dump quite a bit of heavy, wet, low-ratio snow in the areas just north of the mixing zone.

It also has quite a bit of moisture and dynamics with it.

The only problem is (which has been teh ongoing theme of this winter) the cold air yet again is marginal. However, given the also first somewhat decent -NAO blocking we've had for this winter and the confluent flow in SE Canada, there's a good chance the LLJ will be shunted to the south and this storm will just occlude eastward. None of the models at thsi point have temps getting above 3*C celsius from 850mb to the surface.

The key will be timing everything just right, as to getting the benefit of the occlusion without missing out on the system's peak intensity (in a word, an overrunning scenario), and thus having to contend with some sheared out crap no one wants like the storm preceeding this one or another cold rain storm.

06z DGEX is actually close to the best outcome we want.

And the biggest reason I would definitely get somewhat excited about this system especially if I lived north of I-70, instead of worrying about it doing what past systems have done, is besides what I stated in the 4th paragraph about the upper level pattern, we also don't have to rely on some big time phase for something good to happen. Everything's all in one piece already.

[cyclone77]

Looks like a nice stripe of 2-4" type snows from southern/eastern Iowa up through far northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, and then streaking through lower MI. We're gonna be close to the mix zone here, so we'll have to wait a few more days to see where that sets up exactly. At this point it looks decent for Hawkeye, and the southern Wisconsin members.

[Powerball]

cyclone77, on 12 February 2012 - 11:33 AM, said:

Looks like a nice stripe of 2-4" type snows from southern/eastern Iowa up through far northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, and then streaking through lower MI. We're gonna be close to the mix zone here, so we'll have to wait a few more days to see where that sets up exactly. At this point it looks decent for Hawkeye, and the southern Wisconsin members.

The EURO and GFS/GGEM do have their differences.

EURO/NOGAPS (FWIW, when they usually team up, that's a good thing) shows a strip of 4-8" along I-80 and Highway 401 in Ontario, with the low tracking across the Ohio Valley.

The GFS/GGEM have the low tracking from Chicago to Detroit, with a narrow strip of 3-6" from Milwaukee to Saginaw.

[kab2791]

Powerball, on 12 February 2012 - 11:37 AM, said:

The EURO and GFS/GGEM do have their differences.

EURO/NOGAPS (FWIW, when they usually team up, that's a good thing) shows a strip of 4-8" along I-80 and Highway 401 in Ontario, with the low tracking across the Ohio Valley.

The GFS/GGEM have the low tracking from Chicago to Detroit, with a narrow strip of 3-6" from Milwaukee to Saginaw.

4-8" on the Euro? Definitely not what I'm seeing looking at Accupro.

Latest GGEM has a stronger, further north surface reflection, resulting in a a band of rain to snow from IA to MI

[cyclone77]

kab2791, on 12 February 2012 - 11:40 AM, said:

...Latest GGEM has a stronger, further north surface reflection, resulting in a a band of rain to snow from IA to MI

Yeah it's pretty far north. Pretty healthy rain event all along the I-80 corridor.

[buckeye]

this is our regions first real legit threat to track? Even though you were probably referring to folks in MI and IL it's still a sorry state of affairs....not to mention it's FEB 11th lol.

I checked the euro on accuwx and agree with krab, looks like a light to moderate event for nw ohio points north and west. Then it warms a bit and the next weak storm goes through se WI. Pretty boring stuff any other year, granted for this season it might be construed as 'exciting'

[toronto blizzard]

IMO the GGEM is an outlier not because I don't like what it's showing but because of how its entering the shortwave entering the PACNW. I'm on my ipod right now so i can't post pictures but if you look around 54 hrs or so on the 12z GFS you can see that second shortwave enter the pacnw. The ggem handles it differently and thus its so phased and warm for nearly everyone. If the euro comes on board looking how the GGEM looks then I might give it credit but for now I'm leaning towards the ECMWF/NAM/GFS for this system.

[Snowstorms]

toronto blizzard, on 12 February 2012 - 12:11 PM, said:

IMO the GGEM is an outlier not because I don't like what it's showing but because of how its entering the shortwave entering the PACNW. I'm on my ipod right now so i can't post pictures but if you look around 54 hrs or so on the 12z GFS you can see that second shortwave enter the pacnw. The ggem handles it differently and thus its so phased and warm for nearly everyone. If the euro comes on board looking how the GGEM looks then I might give it credit but for now I'm leaning towards the ECMWF/NAM/GFS for this system.

TWN has a high of f*cking 8C or 46F on Friday. None of the models show highs that warm, just bs. Atleast EC is more reliable and has a high at the freezing mark which seems reasonable when you put all the model guidance together.

Nice active pattern developing. Lets hope were on the cold side. This seems to be in relation to the MJO which is progressing thru phases 8, 1 and possibly 2 or 3 later on in the month into March. Phases 1-3 are great for snow and cold across our region

[toronto blizzard]

Snowstorms, on 12 February 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:

TWN has a high of f*cking 8C or 46F on Friday. None of the models show highs that warm, just bs. Atleast EC is more reliable and has a high at the freezing mark which seems reasonable when you put all the model guidance together.

Nice active pattern developing. Lets hope were on the cold side. This seems to be in relation to the MJO which is progressing thru phases 8, 1 and possibly 2 or 3 later on in the month into March. Phases 1-3 are great for snow and cold across our region

Yeah let's hope man this winter has been so horrible. There are threats for snowstorms in our area the next 10-14 days so if we are going to salvage some of this miserable winter let's hope the next couple of weeks produce something.

[Snowstorms]

toronto blizzard, on 12 February 2012 - 12:24 PM, said:

Yeah let's hope man this winter has been so horrible. There are threats for snowstorms in our area the next 10-14 days so if we are going to salvage some of this miserable winter let's hope the next couple of weeks produce something.

I dont think precip has been a issue this year, its been the temps mostly. We had weak waves of energy once in a while but with limited cold air they only produced rain, maybe a flurry or two in the end. With winds not being conductive following the storm, there was no LES either.

If we had more sufficient cold air, the northern streams and southern streams could react more better, thus it would yield more larger storms.

I hate this f*cking winter.

[Ajdos]

IDK..This one might end up being a rainstorm..

[Powerball]

The GFS Ensembles show this being a pretty decent system as well (with a reasonable range of solutions)...

I mean obviously the models are going to struggle with details with it being 96hrs out (especially given how complicated the upper level pattern has become), and I know people are doubtful because of seasonal trends, but there's absolutely no question that this is by far our best threat for a widespread winter storm for this season north of I-70, better than the MI/OH/IN border and Chicago-only specials we had in November and throughout January.

[Geos]

Ensembles are promising. Given the dip in the NAO around this storm time frame, I can't see this storm cutting too far north. It'll probably end up tracking between i-80 and i-70.

[Angrysummons]

Meh. Weak pv, poor handlement of the stj. This whole system looks like it needs to slow down. Nice ridge pumping in front as well, which is a problem. A better solution would be to occlude the first wave and trying to phase after a nice northern stream dig. This winter seems to take the easy way out.

[Ajdos]

Angrysummons, on 12 February 2012 - 02:39 PM, said:

Meh. Weak pv, poor handlement of the stj. This whole system looks like it needs to slow down. Nice ridge pumping in front as well, which is a problem. A better solution would be to occlude the first wave and trying to phase after a nice northern stream dig. This winter seems to take the easy way out.

Totally agree..I don't see a good amount of cold air for this system...seems like all the strongest systems this year have a problem with lack of cold air. When we do have the cold air, lack of a good system..SMH

[toronto blizzard]

We can't win this winter

[snowstormcanuck]

toronto blizzard, on 12 February 2012 - 02:52 PM, said:

We can't win this winter

Pretty close per wundermap. Nice front-end thump just north of the 401. I wouldn't throw in the towel yet although with the way this winter has gone I can't blame you if you do.

[Snowstorms]

snowstormcanuck, on 12 February 2012 - 03:08 PM, said:

Pretty close per wundermap. Nice front-end thump just north of the 401. I wouldn't throw in the towel yet although with the way this winter has gone I can't blame you if you do.

Still lots of time left for this change. Lets hope its for the better.

February and March have been known to be golden months in most Nina's like 2008.

[Nic]

Iowa gets hammered by 18z Nam.

[buckeye]

Angrysummons, on 12 February 2012 - 02:39 PM, said:

Meh. Weak pv, poor handlement of the stj. This whole system looks like it needs to slow down. Nice ridge pumping in front as well, which is a problem. A better solution would be to occlude the first wave and trying to phase after a nice northern stream dig. This winter seems to take the easy way out.

also, where's the cold high pressure??? Something else we've been missing all winter.

[Geos]

Nic, on 12 February 2012 - 03:51 PM, said:

Iowa gets hammered by 18z Nam.

Looks like snow along I-80. Too warm towards Missouri for snow.

[Angrysummons]

buckeye, on 12 February 2012 - 03:59 PM, said:

also, where's the cold high pressure??? Something else we've been missing all winter.

We got a whole list of grievances this winter.

[Ajdos]

18z gfs..

[Ajdos]

DTX


THE NEXT SYSTEM TO ADDRESS IS FOR THURSDAY...AS THE EURO HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL LOW ARRIVING. THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVE INTERACTIONS TO DEAL WITH...BUT THE MAIN WAVE COMES
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION (YET AGAIN)...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAP A GOOD DEAL OF GULF MOISTURE AS IT LIFTS INTO THE
PLAIN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. OF COURSE...WITH THAT
MOISTURE...COMES MILDER AIR...AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES APPROACH
THE CRITICAL(RULE OF THUMB/BALLPARK) VALUE AROUND 540 DAM AMONGST
VARIOUS MODELS (CANADIAN/GFS). A LOT WILL BE RIDING ON THE LEAD
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND FOLLOWING STRONG WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY. EARLY INDICATIONS WOULD
SUGGEST A 3-5 INCH SNOWFALL IF PRECIPITATION ENDS UP ALL SNOW...AND
THAT IS A BIG IF AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX THE
MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...IF NOT A COLD RAIN. ALSO...THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE RELATIVELY COMPACT...AND THUS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER/QPF WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO SLIGHT TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A LOT OF
SPREAD AMONGST THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH STRENGTH (10 MB) AND
TIMING (6-12 HRS) ISSUES. A LOOK AT THE 12Z EUROPEAN ALSO POINTS TO
A MILDER SCENARIO...AS 850 MB TEMPS OF +2 C REACH I-69 CORRIDOR...IN
LINE WITH THE CANADIAN.

[michsnowfreak]

Im not seeing big snowstorm potential with this one, but as the models go, we know we are WAY to far out to set ANYTHING in stone. I will take a 3-5" event in a heartbeat as some ensembles point to, but no thank you to rain of any kind. Id rather see supression and keep snowcover than see rain with a possible chance of ending as snow.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS RESIDES WITH A SYSTEM PROGGED
TO PUSH EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED AFTN. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT ARRIVES OVER THE WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY...AND MAY BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE AT MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL TO THE CWFA. ANTICIPATE MODEL CORRECTIONS TO TAKE PLACE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO
STEADILY BE MONITORED...AS IT COULD EASILY AMPLIFY INTO A MORE
POTENT EVENT.

ENSEMBLES HAVE STEADILY DEMONSTRATED MINIMAL SPREAD OR ELEVATED
CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE 500MB HEIGHTS. FEATURING A WEAK
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED/THUR...WHILE A TROUGH
APPEARS TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME IN THE EXTENDED...WHICH
COULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL SLOW DOWN TO THE PROGRESSIVE WEST-EAST
FLOW. THUS HOLDING AND POTENTIALLY AMPLIFYING THE WED NGT/THUR
SYSTEM...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OPERATIONAL MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE CORRECTIONS AS
TO THE PRECISE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH
WOULD ULTIMATELY RESULT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE.


DVN

POTENTIAL MID WEEK SYSTEM...LATEST SUITE OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH PHASING AND ENERGY
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT MAJOR UPSTREAM IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
MOST OF THESE MODELS PROJECTED UPPER JET PLACEMENT STILL SUPPORT
BULK OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA OVER THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY
AND UP THE OH RVR/TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT AND THU. BUT SECONDARY SWATH
OF PRECIP WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL STILL LOOK TO
SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM LATE WED INTO AT LEAST THU MORNING. THE
ECMWF...LAST FRAME OF THE NAM AND EVEN THE SREF SUGGEST ENOUGH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS TO MODERATE
PROFILES INTO MAINLY RAIN FROM LATE WED AFTERNOON AND INTO WED
NIGHT. INITIAL MIX POSSIBLE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD POSSIBLE INTO WED EVENING...AND WILL KEEP THE MIX
WORDING FOR NOW IN THE NORTH HALF FOR MOST OF WED NIGHT....BUT
EXPECT AREAS ALONG I80 TO WARM TO ALL RAIN PARAMETERS AS WELL. THAT
IS UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
OF IN-WRAPPING LOWER LEVEL COLD CONVEYOR FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST DEPENDING ON TIMING OF SYSTEM PASSAGE OR ONGOING PHASING
PROCESSES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS PHASED...ENDING
THE PRECIP BY MID THU MORNING AFTER A COUPLE OF INCHES OF WET SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA. THE NEW 12Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE PHASED...WHICH COULD LINGER DEF ZONE SNOWS
/AFTER THE RAIN SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT-EARLY THU/OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA INTO THU EVENING AND PROBABLY ADD UP TO SNOW TOTALS
WORTHY OF AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW WITH
THE UNCERTAINTIES OF A WAVE STILL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
WILL KEEP RAIN OR SNOW WORDING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU...ALL SNOW
IN THE NORTHWEST AND MAYBE KEEP RAIN WORDING IN THE FAR SOUTH.

[Ajdos]

michsnowfreak, on 12 February 2012 - 05:27 PM, said:

Im not seeing big snowstorm potential with this one, but as the models go, we know we are WAY to far out to set ANYTHING in stone. I will take a 3-5" event in a heartbeat as some ensembles point to, but no thank you to rain of any kind. Id rather see supression and keep snowcover than see rain with a possible chance of ending as snow.

I LOVE ALL OF YOUR PICTURES! AMAZING..

[michsnowfreak]

Ajdos, on 12 February 2012 - 05:40 PM, said:

I LOVE ALL OF YOUR PICTURES! AMAZING..

Thanks

[SpartyOn]

Ajdos, on 12 February 2012 - 05:13 PM, said:

18z gfs..

Sometimes all u can do is laugh.

[DAFF]

At least there is a potential for snow rather than definite rain .... Tues, Thurs and Sunday... I think we will average a push and salt per event. 38" is looking more and more reachable too.

[michsnowfreak]

SpartyOn, on 12 February 2012 - 07:45 PM, said:

Sometimes all u can do is laugh.

Maybe you should soak up the Maryland warmth a little longer, not come home til say, Friday. We certainly ran into some luck when you left. lol j/k

[Thundersnow12]

The NAM looks to be the outlier right now because it doesn't even have this 3rd wave which the GFS/Euro have and what happens with that determines what happens down the road across the plains/midwest.

The GFS/Euro are in agreement in dropping a wave out of BC into the MT/WY region tues night/weds morning timeframe. The NAM doesn't even really have the wave (keeps it up in Canada) but instead brings the "last" wave that enters across the pac NW/BC further east and attempts to phase with the southern stream wave.





So we have to watch if this wave dropping into MT/WY is legit and if it is, the speed of it as well as the southern streamw wave as it moves east across the four corners into the plains.

[kab2791]

By hr 48 on the 00Z NAM, it looks to be dropping that 3rd wave further south into MT/WY compared to the prior run. Good catch there.

Thundersnow12, on 12 February 2012 - 09:19 PM, said:

The NAM looks to be the outlier right now because it doesn't even have this 3rd wave which the GFS/Euro have and what happens with that determines what happens down the road across the plains/midwest.

So we have to watch if this wave dropping into MT/WY is legit and if it is, the speed of it as well as the southern streamw wave as it moves east across the four corners into the plains.

[Thundersnow12]

Yeah the 0z NAM coming in quite different from its 18z run.

[Angrysummons]

NAM definitely get the award for the greatest 180 of the winter season lol.