52 replies to this topic

[SpartyOn]

Figured this is fitting as Met spring is only a few weeks aways. Hopeful we get some good insight and discos rolling.

[andyhb]

As Tony mentioned in the 2012 tornado prediction thread, if the trend of cold air masses being held north the majority of the time this winter continues, then the GL/OV region may be at more of a risk from svr wx events.

Here's that thread: http://www.americanw...nadoes-in-2012/

[daddylonglegs]

Big year. Especially if the Gulf of Mexico can stay bathwaterish...

[Angrysummons]

Hopefully a warm, wet spring to make mowing the lawn a bigger nightmare than last year.

[Justin]

I agree with the other poster. If these cold intrusions only penetrate Southward just to the Middle Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley then that is the region that is going to see a heck of a severe weather season. The fast Pacific flow that has dominated the Winter, well if that buckles into a good system combined with cold air intrusions not getting to far South, another alarm sounds there for an active season. But I also can't help the fact that a lot of times Mild Winters can be followed up here by cold, miserable Springs sooooo..... I'll say very active from Kansas, Oklahoma over through Ohio and Kentucky.... probably a bit less active further North of that.

[Hoosier]

I'm leaning toward an average to above average season on the whole with things not waiting very long to get underway. In other words I don't think it will be one of those years where the Lakes/OV are waiting until May or June for activity. This is based on 2nd year Nina climo, a local correlation I ran regarding January severe weather and the lack of deeply penetrating arctic airmasses up to this point, all of which admittedly have limited value but probably better than nothing.

[Thundersnow12]

The Gulf hasn't been touched...70 dews have been sitting offshore most of the winter.

[dmc76]

My prediction is the opposite of what the "experts" say

[Stebo48858]

For the country it might be average to slightly above average but regionally like Justin/TT mentioned I am expecting an above average severe weather season, the only wrench in the plan would be if March end up substantially below normal.

[BowMeHunter]

I expect it to be mostly boring like winter has been up here.

[SpartyOn]

If the continued train of steam rolling PAC energy is still moving we will get an above normal year.
Doubtful and almost highly doubtful that March will end up on below side in regards to temps and activity. This pattern is locked in so tight and it won't be long before significant warm ups move on up. Yes it could go the other way but it apears it might not. Classic case of moisture laden GOM air slamming into modified pacific and arctic air.

[knitwx]

I think we can look for a really stormy spring. I agree with the other posters.

[andyhb]

The GoM being as juiced as it is (as if we needed anymore indicators, we have an mandarin Invest in February) has already added a stronger element than last year in potential thermodynamic/kinematic influence of systems, considering interactions between cold air masses that do manage to sink south will likely have a larger temperature gradient (i.e. stronger mid/upper level jets and possibly more instability, unless the cold air intrusions don't prove as potent). If this does happen to occur from March through May and we get some substantial long waves and stronger short wave troughs, then I could see some major, potentially red-letter events taking place, but that is really all just speculation and whatnot at this point.

[Bryan Wood]

This is just circumstantial, but I saw this post over in the NYC metro that compared our temps this winter to 2006. 2006 was a pretty good year for Mid-Mississippi Tornado Outbreaks and I believe was (or possibly still is) a record year for tornadoes in Illinois. Indiana had a pretty active year as well.

[Indystorm]

Bryan Wood, on 6 February 2012 - 01:01 PM, said:

This is just circumstantial, but I saw this post over in the NYC metro that compared our temps this winter to 2006. 2006 was a pretty good year for Mid-Mississippi Tornado Outbreaks and I believe was (or possibly still is) a record year for tornadoes in Illinois. Indiana had a pretty active year as well.

March 12, 2006 was a supremely interesting day watching all the svr weather move from KS to IL on radar and forums. There were long track tornadoes and two that hit Springfield Illinois.

[Hoosier]

Bryan Wood, on 6 February 2012 - 01:01 PM, said:

This is just circumstantial, but I saw this post over in the NYC metro that compared our temps this winter to 2006. 2006 was a pretty good year for Mid-Mississippi Tornado Outbreaks and I believe was (or possibly still is) a record year for tornadoes in Illinois. Indiana had a pretty active year as well.

IL had over 120 and IN had 25. Gigantic difference for neighboring states.

[andyhb]

Indystorm, on 6 February 2012 - 03:39 PM, said:

March 12, 2006 was a supremely interesting day watching all the svr weather move from KS to IL on radar and forums. There were long track tornadoes and two that hit Springfield Illinois.

Gotta love sextuple state supercells...

Then you had the major one on Apr. 2nd with numerous fatalities in the Memphis CWA with that big tri-state sup.

[Stebo48858]

Indystorm, on 6 February 2012 - 03:39 PM, said:

March 12, 2006 was a supremely interesting day watching all the svr weather move from KS to IL on radar and forums. There were long track tornadoes and two that hit Springfield Illinois.

I love that day, tracking that supercell from school all day was great.

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

andyhb, on 6 February 2012 - 07:14 PM, said:

Gotta love sextuple state supercells...

Then you had the major one on Apr. 2nd with numerous fatalities in the Memphis CWA with that big tri-state sup.

And that same day--exactly three weeks after the two F2s here in Springfield (but my neighborhood, close to the Capitol Complex, was missed by about 1 1/2 miles to the south--other than some blown limbs, frazzled nerves, and no electricity for 8 hours here), there were two other tornadoes in nearly the same parts of south Springfield that were affected on that fateful March 12. From the ILX Weather Trivia page for Apr. 2, 2006:

"An outbreak of 25 tornadoes occurred across central and southeas Illinois. While most of these were of F0 or F1 intensity, one strong tornado tracked across Macon County southwest of Decatur. Several homes and businesses were damaged in Taylorville and Pana; two tornadoes moved across southern parts of Springfield, affecting nearly the same locations as the March 12 tornadoes."

http://www.crh.noaa....via.php?m=4&d=2

And then later that year--July 19, 2006--Springfield also got in on some of the action in the Busch Stadium derecho (hitting here about an hour or two before reaching St. Louis--mainly wind damage here but activated sirens and rekindling the March 12 tornado fears). And then the ice storm/6-8 inches of snow as 2006 came to a close, on Nov. 30-Dec. 1.

For our sake in central Illinois, I hope this mild winter comparable to 2005-06 doesn't provide an omen to what this year's severe weather season may hold.

[SpartyOn]

Indystorm, on 6 February 2012 - 03:39 PM, said:

March 12, 2006 was a supremely interesting day watching all the svr weather move from KS to IL on radar and forums. There were long track tornadoes and two that hit Springfield Illinois.

March outbreaks always see go to the violent side of the equation.

EC has a couple of Spring maps posted.

[OceanStWx]

Hoosier, on 4 February 2012 - 11:14 PM, said:

I'm leaning toward an average to above average season on the whole with things not waiting very long to get underway. In other words I don't think it will be one of those years where the Lakes/OV are waiting until May or June for activity. This is based on 2nd year Nina climo, a local correlation I ran regarding January severe weather and the lack of deeply penetrating arctic airmasses up to this point, all of which admittedly have limited value but probably better than nothing.

Some of my musings agree with this. First and foremost, the fact that the Gulf SSTs are running above normal everywhere, with growing areas of +1 - 1.5 has to be favorable for a faster start. We've already seen how quickly moisture has been able to return this year, and I think this trend will continue. I don't think the Gulf is ready to turn over either. The lack of sustained cold this winter, means that this isn't just the surface water that is above normal. There is some depth to this.

Another favorable factor will be the weakening La Nina. Most forecasts at least weaken it, some dissipating it all together. Local reasearch has found a tendency for more active weather following a La Nina. Nationally the statisitcs are a little murkier, due to the washing out of signals in various regions (i.e. El Nino favoring Gulf Coast outbreaks). There are weak signals towards stronger and longer tornadoes as well as larger outbreaks during La Nina conditions as well.

Lack of deep snow cover will help facilitate warm intrusions making it farther north early on too.

Justin, on 4 February 2012 - 10:31 PM, said:

I agree with the other poster. If these cold intrusions only penetrate Southward just to the Middle Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley then that is the region that is going to see a heck of a severe weather season. The fast Pacific flow that has dominated the Winter, well if that buckles into a good system combined with cold air intrusions not getting to far South, another alarm sounds there for an active season. But I also can't help the fact that a lot of times Mild Winters can be followed up here by cold, miserable Springs sooooo..... I'll say very active from Kansas, Oklahoma over through Ohio and Kentucky.... probably a bit less active further North of that.

Then my gut screams to watch out for this. Eventually these positive anomalies will try and balance out. For instance, Moline was +7, +6.5 and so far (early I know) +9.5 in DJF. Regression to the mean wouldn't look so hot. So I guess my gut feeling has a tiny amount of science behind it.

[SpartyOn]

With a declining Nina it will be interesting to see just how wild things will get.

On a side note.. What a hoot if we transition right into El Nino come Summer/Fall

[Chicago Storm]

There are negatives and positives heading into the season...

Positives:
-The gulf has been relatively undisturbed.
-There has been some relief to drought conditions in portions of the plains.
-There is the lack of a deep snow cover over a wide area.

Negatives:
-There is still a widespread drought in place across the Gulf Coast/Plains/Southwest.
-The continuing (and more widespread?) drought could lead to greater EML advection.

Obviously several of these things could change between now and when the season usually ramps up in late March/April.

[Stebo48858]

Chicago Storm, on 7 February 2012 - 10:41 PM, said:

There are negatives and positives heading into the season...

Positives:
-The gulf has been relatively undisturbed.
-There has been some relief to drought conditions in portions of the plains.
-There is the lack of a deep snow cover over a wide area.

Negatives:
-There is still a widespread drought in place across the Gulf Coast/Plains/Southwest.
-The continuing (and more widespread?) drought could lead to greater EML advection.

Obviously several of these things could change between now and when the season usually ramps up in late March/April.

The negatives in some situations especially the significant outbreaks actually act as positives so I would be leery of labelling them as negative.

[andyhb]

Stebo48858, on 7 February 2012 - 10:53 PM, said:

The negatives in some situations especially the significant outbreaks actually act as positives so I would be leery of labelling them as negative.

Exactly what I thought.

[Hoosier]

I'm gonna sort of go out on a limb and predict that some area of this forum will have a moderate or high risk before March 15.

[Stebo48858]

Hoosier, on 17 February 2012 - 12:07 AM, said:

I'm gonna sort of go out on a limb and predict that some area of this forum will have a moderate or high risk before March 15.

If it happens I say South of I-70

[Hoosier]

Stebo48858, on 17 February 2012 - 12:09 AM, said:

If it happens I say South of I-70

Well, I guess that would be a climo pick.

[Stebo48858]

Hoosier, on 17 February 2012 - 12:36 AM, said:

Well, I guess that would be a climo pick.

Well I mean from I-70 to KY over to STL. That would be outside of climo I believe.

[andyhb]

Hoosier, on 17 February 2012 - 12:07 AM, said:

I'm gonna sort of go out on a limb and predict that some area of this forum will have a moderate or high risk before March 15.

Mid-range models come into some sort of fruition and that looks likely...

[Alek]

Hoosier, on 17 February 2012 - 12:07 AM, said:

I'm gonna sort of go out on a limb and predict that some area of this forum will have a moderate or high risk before March 15.

you're biting hard on the extreme amplification in the mid range. good luck.

[gosaints]

Alek, on 17 February 2012 - 10:15 AM, said:

you're biting hard on the extreme amplification in the mid range. good luck.

I wont know how to act if we do see extreme amplification. Buy it when I see it.

[Bryan Wood]

gosaints, on 17 February 2012 - 11:19 AM, said:

I wont know how to act if we do see extreme amplification. Buy it when I see it.

I do. Get in my car and chase! Of course, it is the GFS in Mid-Range...so I'm far from sold.

[Hoosier]

Alek, on 17 February 2012 - 10:15 AM, said:

you're biting hard on the extreme amplification in the mid range.  good luck.

That is probably the first opportunity. I still have 2 weeks of leeway beyond that.

[KokomoWX]

Here is once chasers take on chase (severe) season - http://www.stormtrac...12-a-Look-Ahead