125 replies to this topic

[PatrickSumner]

I know, I know, it is very early in the ball game, but the GFS and EURO both show a storm. The EURO seems to be slightly faster which is surprising because it likes to hold energy back in the southwest.  It has been trending west the past couple of runs now thus this thread. The 12Z GFS run is below (Hours 186 and 189 respectively)

Attached Files

•  GFS 186.gif   66.16K   2 downloads
•  GFS 189.gif   66.56K   1 downloads

[SpartyOn]

FWIW the models ATM shouldn't be trusted. They can't even look out 5 days so banking on D10 system is some serious speculation. Either way the time frame and the teleconections might hint at something. But this can go away as fast as it came.

[baum001]

here is what I am going to do for you guys
Aking,Thunder,Chgo.Geos, Beast....buckle in this is our 10 incher and then call it a day

[Geos]

Well it's something to watch again! If the NAO stays the same then I can see this system trending west.

[snowstormcanuck]

EC storm or OTS. First call. Final call.

[SpartyOn]

snowstormcanuck, on 4 February 2012 - 12:00 AM, said:

EC storm or OTS. First call. Final call.

God I hope not. Ill be in Maryland during this time frame.

[Geos]

Arctic blast really suppresses this system on the 18z run.

[Justin]

I'm gonna guess this is an East Coast'er and maybe a Mid Atlantic system. The cold which may be diving into the middle of the nation will likely cause a system to spin up well East of the lakes. I think this may very well be the big storm of the Winter out East. As far as the Midwest-Lakes-Ohio Valley goes, I think we may be in the game for something around the 17th-22nd. I think the pattern could favor a snow storm or a healthy icing event.

[Angrysummons]

The flow is to progressive, the cold isn't crushing anything really. Really hard to call this a "storm" at all. Something may develope over the next 72hrs but the lack of a smoking gun is pretty much the story here. Sampling must change.

[Angrysummons]

Angrysummons, on 4 February 2012 - 10:16 PM, said:

The flow is to progressive, the cold isn't crushing anything really. Really hard to call this a "storm" at all. Something may develope over the next 72hrs but the lack of a smoking gun is pretty much the story here. Sampling must change.

GFS with a better pv "look" tonight, but the s/w is so far south, the arctic jet would have to dig just about into the gulf to find it lol.

[PatrickSumner]

Angrysummons, on 4 February 2012 - 11:28 PM, said:

GFS with a better pv "look" tonight, but the s/w is so far south, the arctic jet would have to dig just about into the gulf to find it lol.

Yes...the threat for this time frame is still alive and well. May have to change the date to the 10-11TH instead of all the way through the 13TH. Will not play around with it right now.

[Stebo48858]

Justin, on 4 February 2012 - 10:13 PM, said:

I'm gonna guess this is an East Coast'er and maybe a Mid Atlantic system. The cold which may be diving into the middle of the nation will likely cause a system to spin up well East of the lakes. I think this may very well be the big storm of the Winter out East. As far as the Midwest-Lakes-Ohio Valley goes, I think we may be in the game for something around the 17th-22nd. I think the pattern could favor a snow storm or a healthy icing event.

The GFS and the GGEM do show something around the 15th-16th for the region.

[Geos]

Valentine's Day Storm for OV?

[PatrickSumner]

Dates have been adjusted accordingly.

[snowlover2]

Looking like it could be an I-70 special at this time.

[snowstormcanuck]

snowstormcanuck, on 4 February 2012 - 12:00 AM, said:

EC storm or OTS. First call. Final call.

It should be noted that the above call was for a storm centered around Feb 11th that will be going well out to sea.

No trolling warranted.

[McDude]

snowlover2, on 7 February 2012 - 03:18 AM, said:

Looking like it could be an I-70 special at this time.

Every time I see people saying that we end up getting snow. So keep saying that!

[Geos]

12z run shows the system going into the lower lakes. Hopefully it will come back a bit stronger.

[BowMeHunter]

Only thing special happening in this thread is a Blue light special at k-mart. Pretty soon this will be pushed back to the deedler storm thread.

[PatrickSumner]

BowMeHunter, on 7 February 2012 - 01:41 PM, said:

Only thing special happening in this thread is a Blue light special at k-mart. Pretty soon this will be pushed back to the deedler storm thread.

18Z GFS makes this a Great Lakes event. Not a massive amount of moisture, but would throw down a easy 2-4 along and north of I80 with more possible with lake enhancement. Things could still change either way going forward.

Attached Files

•  GFS 159.gif   61.23K   0 downloads
•  GFS 162.gif   60.74K   0 downloads
•  gfs 165.gif   61.19K   0 downloads

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

This morning's ILX forecast discussion--possibly an WWA in store for my area for tomorrow?

000
FXUS63 KILX 121138
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
538 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 318 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS
MORNING...PUSHING MUCH COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST WITH MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC TAKING UP THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY STRETCHING OVER THE PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW DIGGING IN OVER THE SWRN CONUS...AS A SFC LOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS.
ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHOTS AT PRECIP
AS WAVES ROLL OUT OF THE SWRN US. FIRST EVENT STARTS OFF THE WEEK
WITH MEASURABLE SNOW FRI AFTERNOON AND IN THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MINOR ISSUES WITH TIMING...MOSTLY AFFECTING WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW
WILL ACTUALLY GET GOING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT HINT OF PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST IS MID WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
OVER THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM WED NIGHT/THU...WITH THE LAST BITS
OF THE NAM COMING TO THE SAME SOLN. MORE OF A DISCONNECT ON THE
NEXT WAVE OUT OF THE SW LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD...AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT AS WELL...THE SFC WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A BIT OF A WARM UP OVER YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN
THE 20S...THOUGH STAYING MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS MOVING IN
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING
SNOW FOR MONDAY. GFS WAS A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM...THOUGH THE
LAST SYNOPTIC RUNS HAD A LITTLE LESS OF A DIFFERENCE. THE 06Z NAM
AND THE 00Z GFS HOLD OFF ON THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL AFTER
18Z IN THE WEST...KEEPING THE SNOW GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE.
HOWEVER...THE SW HAS A CHANCE TO SEE AN EARLIER ONSET OF SNOW WITH
A HIGHER SLR...AND CLOSER TO THE STRONGER DYNAMICS IN PROXIMITY TO
THE WAVE...AND HAS MORE OF A 2 TO 3 RANGE. HPC QPF WAS BUMPED UP A
BIT WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE...PUTTING ILX SWRN COUNTIES CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN START TIME AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION MISS BEFORE 18Z...HAVE PULLED BACK SOMEWHAT
OVERALL...WILL DEFER TO NEXT SYNOPTIC RUN FOR ANY MAJOR DECISIONS.
WILL BE BORDERLINE SITUATION EITHER WAY. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ITS
RETREAT TUES MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FZDL BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT WAVE OVERALL IN A BIT OF A HURRY
IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY PATTERN. HESITATE TO CALL A LOT OF
ATTENTION TO THE BACK SIDE OF A RAPIDLY PROGRESSING SYSTEM WITH
TIMING ISSUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE SWRN US ON WED...AND ALL MODELS
AGREEING MORE THAN USUAL. HOWEVER...STICKING POINT WITH THIS
SYSTEM REVOLVES AROUND THE FACT THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SEVERELY MODIFIED AND THE
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SO UNIFORMLY IN THE FAVOR OF SNOW. SOUTHERN HALF
OF ILLINOIS SLATED FOR RAIN...WITH A MESSY MIX FOR THE NORTH.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT. NEXT SYSTEM HAS
MASSIVE TIMING DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF (SAT) AND THE GFS
(SAT NIGHT/SUN) AND THE HANDLING OF THE EXIT OF THE WAVE OUT OF
THE WEST IN THE FIRST PLACE. ECMWF PUSHES A SLIGHT WAVE AND
STRINGS OUT THE REST...WHILE THE GFS DEEPENS OVER THE COAST BEFORE
PUSHING A MORE MATURE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...PRECIP IS NOT
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MIDWEEK UNTIL THE PIC BECOMES
CLEARER. SAFE TO SAY THE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE ACTIVE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 538 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY AIRMASS. WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED...
THOUGH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...
EXPECTED TO BE A SNOW PRODUCER LOCALLY...WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

[Nic]

I hope we get a clear night before it gets here so the temperatures will be lower. I also hope the air is dry so it cools a little when it arrives. Would be a shame to get snow all day that melts on contact.

[snowstormcanuck]

My analysis: VD 2007 > whatever happens this week.

[Chicago WX]

snowstormcanuck, on 12 February 2012 - 10:58 AM, said:

My analysis: VD 2007 > whatever happens this week.

12z NAM, as per usual, is the "wettest" of the guidance bringing 0.25" QPF amounts through central IL on east through central OH. I'll disregard that, and make a first call of 1-2" for LAF.

[cyclone77]

Gonna go with 1-1.5" here. Long duration very light snow will slowly add up during the day and evening. It will be nice to see it snowing all day.

[Hoosier]

Chicago WX, on 12 February 2012 - 11:15 AM, said:

12z NAM, as per usual, is the "wettest" of the guidance bringing 0.25" QPF amounts through central IL on east through central OH. I'll disregard that, and make a first call of 1-2" for LAF.

I think we could squeeze out a couple inches here. I'm normally not a fan of long duration light events at this time of year due to the increasing sun angle but it looks like the vast majority of this event will come after dark.

[Chicago WX]

Hoosier, on 12 February 2012 - 11:43 AM, said:

I think we could squeeze out a couple inches here. I'm normally not a fan of long duration light events at this time of year due to the increasing sun angle but it looks like the vast majority of this event will come after dark.

Yeah I can get on board with this line of thinking. Rates look pretty light, so the bulk falling during nighttime will be a bonus.

[Ajdos]

I'm so excited about this system!!!!!













NOT.

[Nic]

Chicago WX, on 12 February 2012 - 11:15 AM, said:

12z NAM, as per usual, is the "wettest" of the guidance bringing 0.25" QPF amounts through central IL on east through central OH. I'll disregard that, and make a first call of 1-2" for LAF.

Even with that ratios will be terrible with wet snow, 0.25 would probaly yield less than 2 inches.

[Geos]

Looks like a 1.5-2" here with the latest 12z runs. I'll be really close or over the 20" mark late tomorrow.

[Guru Of Reason]

snowstormcanuck, on 12 February 2012 - 10:58 AM, said:

My analysis: VD 2007 > whatever happens this week.

The 2007 storm busted for St. Louis. It was mainly a sleet maker, and we ended up with 2.7 at Lambert. So for us, the 2012 storm could possibly outdo the 2007 one.

[michsnowfreak]

As light as this snow probably will be, this looks to be one of the most widespread snow events anywhere in the country this season. A very large area should see some light snow accumulation. Im thinking a good inch here, but holding my breath for possibly 2". It looks like a vast majority of the precip falls tomorrow night (0.07-0.10") with temps in the 20s, so no problem there...then a few hundredths of probable wasted qpf in the form of wet snow during the day Tues as it warms to maybe the mid-30s. Either way a nice refresher snow looking likely.

[Chicago WX]

NAM has 0.18" for LAF. More in line with the others. 1-2"...yep.

[Angrysummons]

It is being overshadowed by the big storm down the line

[Chicago WX]

Angrysummons, on 12 February 2012 - 10:33 PM, said:

It is being overshadowed by the big storm down the line

Yeah, that's gonna be a rainer here.

So all aboard the PatrickSumner train for me. 0.9" to get to 20" for the season and I don't care what happens the rest of the way.