46 replies to this topic

[blackrock]

I went for a walk on the beach this week and there is no ice whatsoever on the beach. In a normal winter we have mountains of ice along the shore. I'm thinking this might equate to a much faster warm-up for areas/cities along the Great Lakes shorelines as we "get into" Spring. Normally we don't have buds and leaves on the trees around here til mid-May. Any thoughts?

[weatherpsycho]

I posted this in the February Tread:

I know a snowstorm or two are still in the offering and I'll take them.

But noticed a post on the main forum a few days ago about the postive feedback that is likely to occur if such a large area of North America remains without snowcover. As you know most of the CONUS and eastern & southern Canada lack any significant snow depth (nothing even close to normal). By end of February if this continues it would likely lead to positive feedback into Spring.

I could definitely see that with warmer ground & lakes it would more likely lead to at least a warmer than normal March & April. The ground frost is not nearly a deep as it should be for this time of year. The Great Lake temps are already well above normal for this time of year.

The talk on here of a cold spring maybe melting away if these February temps remain above normal due to this positive feedback.

Of course we all know there are always other factors that could override this feedback but at this point I hope those factors don't come about.

[turtlehurricane]

Crazy stuff.

[Alek]

not sure about warmer spring as it's probably a minor player, what it will do is aid in accelerating the very real trend of declining lake levels.

[weatherpsycho]

In regards to buds & trees, many trees bloom based on mostly on the amount of sunlight while temps have less to do with it. Temps are a factor but amount of sunlight is the key element to trigger bud growth on most trees.

Ground plants are different as the temperature (particulatly ground temp) have a much higher factor for them to grow. Sunlight while still needed is not the main trigger.

This is pretty simplified but I hope it helps.

[turtlehurricane]

Alek, on 2 February 2012 - 09:19 AM, said:

not sure about warmer spring as it's probably a minor player, what it will do is aid in accelerating the very real trend of declining lake levels.

The trend isn't that clear. I don't think this year alone will make much of a difference.

[Alek]

turtlehurricane, on 2 February 2012 - 09:27 AM, said:

The trend isn't that clear. I don't think this year alone will make much of a difference.

Since i was born in 1984, it's waaaay down (graph agrees) despite a string of wet years, every year the beaches in my neighborhood get extended.

[weatherpsycho]

It has been interesting to see several different reports about the Lake Levels. Keep in mind that Erie and Ontario have been above normal the past several years (even St Clair currently is above normal).

Superior's low level has been more understood because of the persistant drought conditions for the past several years in the UP, northern WI and northern MN into the surround Ontario land base.

Michigan & Hurons low level has been less understood:
It is intersting to note that much of the Lower Lakes (Northern IL, Northern IN, southern WI and at least the south half of Lower MI) have had above normal precip over the past few year yet the lake level is not improving all that much.
Yes there has been more evaporation but this has not affected Erie & Ontario.
Northern MI has had on and off drought so this does have some factor.
One concern has been the dredging of the St. Clair river (i.e. making the St Clair river deeper for boats between Huron and St Clair). The affects of this dredging are not fully understood and there are some reports this could be one of the major factors now affecting Lake MI & Huron. There is a nice detailed goverment report that says it is all climate change and not much to do with dredging.
Bottled water like (example 'Ice Mountain' which I like to drink) have impacts that are unknown (I personally don't think this would have much affect but I could be wrong).
The climate is always changing.
Less water from Superior which is low.

[daddylonglegs]

Maybe check out 2006. At this point, that year (looking at sat images), there was even less ice on the great lakes...

[Hoosier]

It could help a bit but lake temps aren't exactly boiling. I'm sure there will still be some nasty raw days near the shore this spring.

[weatherpsycho]

Hoosier, on 2 February 2012 - 11:53 AM, said:

It could help a bit but lake temps aren't exactly boiling. I'm sure there will still be some nasty raw days near the shore this spring.

Very true but the worst of it could be done earlier than normal. Of course it all depends on the pattern,

[Trent]

Hoosier, on 2 February 2012 - 11:53 AM, said:

It could help a bit but lake temps aren't exactly boiling. I'm sure there will still be some nasty raw days near the shore this spring.

Depends on location. Here, half of Lake Erie should be frozen. It will definitely help to keep temps up a few degrees during the night for quite sometime.

Remarkable that Erie has barely an ice floe or two in early February. Not even a hint of ice on the south shore. Normally there'd be huge mounds and mounds of ice 15' high by now in the windward bays.

[daddylonglegs]

This is last year on Feb 4th:

[Geos]

Alek, on 2 February 2012 - 09:29 AM, said:

Since i was born in 1984, it's waaaay down (graph agrees) despite a string of wet years, every year the beaches in my neighborhood get extended.

I was born in 1982, and I remember the lake being higher then it has been. Beaches are wider. There's clear evidence of older shorelines in places. Previously submerged boulders and old piers are surfacing along the shores in Kenosha and Racine. The milder lake waters would evaporate quicker then colder waters.

weatherpsycho, on 2 February 2012 - 10:18 AM, said:

It has been interesting to see several different reports about the Lake Levels. Keep in mind that Erie and Ontario have been above normal the past several years (even St Clair currently is above normal).

Superior's low level has been more understood because of the persistant drought conditions for the past several years in the UP, northern WI and northern MN into the surround Ontario land base.

Michigan & Hurons low level has been less understood:
It is intersting to note that much of the Lower Lakes (Northern IL, Northern IN, southern WI and at least the south half of Lower MI) have had above normal precip over the past few year yet the lake level is not improving all that much.
Yes there has been more evaporation but this has not affected Erie & Ontario.
Northern MI has had on and off drought so this does have some factor.
One concern has been the dredging of the St. Clair river (i.e. making the St Clair river deeper for boats between Huron and St Clair). The affects of this dredging are not fully understood and there are some reports this could be one of the major factors now affecting Lake MI & Huron. There is a nice detailed goverment report that says it is all climate change and not much to do with dredging.
Bottled water like (example 'Ice Mountain' which I like to drink) have impacts that are unknown (I personally don't think this would have much affect but I could be wrong).
The climate is always changing.
Less water from Superior which is low.

Dredging and natural down-cutting of the St. Clair River are significant factors.
Even though it has been wet in the southern Great Lakes, the surface water basin doesn't extend far from the lake in SE WI, N IL, or N IN. It would benefit the falling lakes if heavier precipitation would fall over the northern Great Lakes where the drainage basin is larger.

[NEOH]

weatherpsycho, on 2 February 2012 - 10:18 AM, said:

It has been interesting to see several different reports about the Lake Levels. Keep in mind that Erie and Ontario have been above normal the past several years (even St Clair currently is above normal).

Superior's low level has been more understood because of the persistant drought conditions for the past several years in the UP, northern WI and northern MN into the surround Ontario land base.

Michigan & Hurons low level has been less understood:
It is intersting to note that much of the Lower Lakes (Northern IL, Northern IN, southern WI and at least the south half of Lower MI) have had above normal precip over the past few year yet the lake level is not improving all that much.
Yes there has been more evaporation but this has not affected Erie & Ontario.
Northern MI has had on and off drought so this does have some factor.
One concern has been the dredging of the St. Clair river (i.e. making the St Clair river deeper for boats between Huron and St Clair). The affects of this dredging are not fully understood and there are some reports this could be one of the major factors now affecting Lake MI & Huron. There is a nice detailed goverment report that says it is all climate change and not much to do with dredging.
Bottled water like (example 'Ice Mountain' which I like to drink) have impacts that are unknown (I personally don't think this would have much affect but I could be wrong).
The climate is always changing.
Less water from Superior which is low.

There has been a lot of controversy over the St.Clair river dredging project. There is pretty solid evidence that this caused Huron water levels to drop. With 70" of precip locally over the last 12 months no wonder Lake Erie is above average. Although i've read that run-off only contributes 3% or so to water levels.

[daddylonglegs]

I haven't looked, but doesn't Superior hold more water then the rest combined? Probably also holds in more heat then the rest combined.

[Geos]

daddylonglegs, on 2 February 2012 - 01:39 PM, said:

I haven't looked, but doesn't Superior hold more water then the rest combined? Probably also holds in more heat then the rest combined.

Yes!
"Lake Superior could contain all the other Great Lakes plus three more lakes the size of Lake Erie." http://www.great-lak...ef/supfact.html

Yeah I would think it would hold more "heat" then the rest. It's much deeper and larger in surface area.

[turtlehurricane]

Geos, on 2 February 2012 - 01:28 PM, said:

I was born in 1982, and I remember the lake being higher then it has been. Beaches are wider. There's clear evidence of older shorelines in places. Previously submerged boulders and old piers are surfacing along the shores in Kenosha and Racine. The milder lake waters would evaporate quicker then colder waters.


Dredging and natural down-cutting of the St. Clair River are significant factors.
Even though it has been wet in the southern Great Lakes, the surface water basin doesn't extend far from the lake in SE WI, N IL, or N IN. It would benefit the falling lakes if heavier precipitation would fall over the northern Great Lakes where the drainage basin is larger.

Very true, Madison isn't that far from Lake Michigan but all of our water goes to the Mississippi.

[BowMeHunter]

Really no surprise the lake water level keeps going down as Chitcago has been raping the lake of water and flushing its taco bell dumps
down to the Gulf of Mexico for over 100 years. Nothing good has ever come out of Illanoy.

[weatherpsycho]

Geos, on 2 February 2012 - 01:28 PM, said:

Dredging and natural down-cutting of the St. Clair River are significant factors.
Even though it has been wet in the southern Great Lakes, the surface water basin doesn't extend far from the lake in SE WI, N IL, or N IN. It would benefit the falling lakes if heavier precipitation would fall over the northern Great Lakes where the drainage basin is larger.

I fully understand the basins extent as it is something I have studied for years now. I know there are multiple factors affecting the Michigan/Huron level. That is all my post was meant to highlight.

[Geos]

turtlehurricane, on 2 February 2012 - 01:53 PM, said:

Very true, Madison isn't that far from Lake Michigan but all of our water goes to the Mississippi.

The ground water recharge area for the Great Lakes is larger, especially in S WI and N IL. But that water takes a long time to infiltrate into Lake Michigan!

This also tell part of the story. Although it would take an extended period of time to witness.





Back onto the original topic. I think the ice free lake would have a minimal impact on spring temperatures. Maybe a degree or two warmer spring. I think the biggest feedback in the spring (only) will be the lack of deep snow cover across the northern tier of the country and southern CA.

[Alek]

BowMeHunter, on 2 February 2012 - 02:17 PM, said:

Really no surprise the lake water level keeps going down as Chitcago has been raping the lake of water and flushing its taco bell dumps
down to the Gulf of Mexico for over 100 years. Nothing good has ever come out of Illanoy.

sending taco bell dumps to Louisiana > dumping bratwurst turds into my drinking water.

[BowMeHunter]

Alek, on 2 February 2012 - 02:59 PM, said:

sending taco bell dumps to Louisiana > dumping bratwurst turds into my drinking water.

Otay buttwheat.

29
Average fecal-colony forming units per 100 milliliters of water discharged in 2008 at Milwaukee's Jones Island facility

12,279
Average at Chicago's North Side treatment plant that same year

170,000
Daily spikes at the Chicago plant can reach this level

[weatherpsycho]

Geos, on 2 February 2012 - 02:41 PM, said:

The ground water recharge area for the Great Lakes is larger, especially in S WI and N IL. But that water takes a long time to infiltrate into Lake Michigan!

This also tell part of the story. Although it would take an extended period of time to witness.

Shoot I forgot about whole well/irrigation issue too. I know many in the thumb of lower MI has been struggling with this problem for several years now. The farms are causing many of the wells to dry up due too the constant irrigation for the crops. They have been dig deeper wells which gets costly.

[Stebo48858]

Other than not liking the subject turn... I do have a couple of opinions on this.

Chicago does attribute to the loss of water in the Great Lakes, but Geos hit the nail on the head as to the bigger loss, which is the dredging in St Clair River. For a while now it is thought that the last time they dredged the river they went down to the water table. Now this would effect those below Lake Huron more than anyone. I can tell you being that my grandparents live on the North Channel at the Southern end of the St. Clair River that the water levels have been steadily dropping since their near maximum in 1997. As for the original premise of the thread that no ice will help temperatures out for the region, I can at least see it helping out Michigan with respect to warmer spring temperatures.

[Alek]

BowMeHunter, on 2 February 2012 - 03:03 PM, said:

Otay buttwheat.

29
Average fecal-colony forming units per 100 milliliters of water discharged in 2008 at Milwaukee's Jones Island facility

12,279
Average at Chicago's North Side treatment plant that same year

170,000
Daily spikes at the Chicago plant can reach this level

It's not Chicago's fault all the sweet turd washing MCS activity has missed MKE lately.

[Geos]

Thought I'd throw this out there. Maybe will have a longer growing season this year... start earlier. I know there are some plants that can survive closer to Lake Michigan, but they struggle as you get further away from the lake due to the coldest lows of winter.

[cyclone77]

BowMeHunter, on 2 February 2012 - 03:03 PM, said:

12,279
Average at Chicago's North Side treatment plant that same year

170,000
Daily spikes at the Chicago plant can reach this level

Are these figures from discharges? Where I work we can't discharge into the Rock River unless we average <100 colonies for a whole week. If we had over that amount the plant would be in some serious ****, no pun intended.

[blackrock]

Other than talking about the types of crap that come from Chicago, this thread has been very informative, guys! Thanks for the great info. and nice looking maps. I didn't know that about the dredging going on. It's pretty amazing how man can totally alter an ecosystem.

[SpartyOn]

Fascinating stuff here guys.

Hate to get political but I sure hope everyone one us around the Lakes does their own part in conserving this most valuable asset.

[Geos]

Water temperatures compared to last year are not that far above what they were last year expect Lake Ontario...and Lake Michigan a bit.

[Trent]

Geos, on 7 February 2012 - 03:25 PM, said:

Water temperatures compared to last year are not that far above what they were last year expect Lake Ontario...and Lake Michigan a bit.

I find that awfully suspect/misleading. There is virtually no ice on lake Erie this year but was nearly frozen last year. So the +0.3 likely isn't surface temp. The temp taken 15' below in the warmest years might be no different than in the coldest years despite one having 4' of ice or the other having 38 degree surface temps.

[Geos]

Trent, on 7 February 2012 - 04:07 PM, said:

I find that awfully suspect/misleading. There is virtually no ice on lake Erie this year but was nearly frozen last year. So the +0.3 likely isn't surface temp.
The temp taken 15' below in the warmest years might be no different than in the coldest years despite one having 4' of ice or the other having 38 degree surface temps.

That would make a world of difference. Waters a dozen or so feet below the surface hardly change throughout the year.

[OHweather]

Geos, on 7 February 2012 - 04:12 PM, said:

That would make a world of difference. Waters a dozen or so feet below the surface hardly change throughout the year.

No, they change an awful lot, especially on a shallow lake like Erie. The water temperatures off of Cleveland are measured at a location about 40' below the surface, and those temps surge into the 70s over the summer and dip into the lower-mid 30s in winter. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong with the depth of the Cleveland water temperature reading.

[Trent]

OHweather, on 7 February 2012 - 04:24 PM, said:

No, they change an awful lot, especially on a shallow lake like Erie. The water temperatures off of Cleveland are measured at a location about 40' below the surface, and those temps surge into the 70s over the summer and dip into the lower-mid 30s in winter. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong with the depth of the Cleveland water temperature reading.

Correct.

But, the reading will never dip below 33 in the coldest of winters even if there are feet of ice and 0 degree temps at the surface. On the same vein, you can have 33 degree temps at that depth even in mild winters.