988 replies to this topic

[weatherpsycho]

+PNA/-EPO pattern means nice cold (maybe "colder" is more apposite term? PV locked up north of 60 so it doesn't really look that cold) dry troughiness over the lakes with the EC possibily cashing in on a stormier pattern. FML.

I hear suicide is painless, and it brings on many changes.

The NAO looks to remain nuetral to positive. I don't think dry troughiness over the GLs is a lock with only the EC cashing in. HM commented that the models are likely going to struggle. If you said a strong -NAO with a +PNA then I would agree with the dry troughiness the lakes.

I still think we will see some good chances coming up.

The 6Z GFS (no I don't trust it) showed nice system around hour 168 and it is tracking similar to what we have been seeing.

[snowstormcanuck]

The NAO looks to remain nuetral to positive. I don't think dry troughiness over the GLs is a lock with only the EC cashing in. HM commented that the models are likely going to struggle. If you said a strong -NAO with a +PNA then I would agree with the dry troughiness the lakes.

I still think we will see some good chances coming up.

The 6Z GFS (no I don't trust it) showed nice system around hour 168 and it is tracking similar to what we have been seeing.

If the PNA ridge axis is located as far east as depicted here:



you're not going to need a substantially negative NAO or west based NAO to keep the storm track more EC oriented. Time will tell regarding the teleconnectors, but one thing's for certain: I'll get screwed over nicely one way or another.

[daddylonglegs]

GFS has a nice shot of cold around the 8th. Prior to that, the first week still looks very mild.

[weatherpsycho]

If the PNA ridge axis is located as far east as depicted here:

you're not going to need a substantially negative NAO or west based NAO to keep the storm track more EC oriented. Time will tell regarding the teleconnectors, but one thing's for certain: I'll get screwed over nicely one way or another.

My comment includes the fact that I believe the models are struggling with this pattern. HM points out they maybe struggling even more so up coming. This winter I have seen them have agreement like this in the 7-10 day range only to have it be significantly different as we got closer and closer. The models (including the EURO) have have shown extended torches of 50F+ IMBY but as we approached they were diminished.

I know you are down and I am not going to kick yah. I think we have better times ahead even for you. I don't trust the models right now (they did horrid with yesterdays/last nights storm).

No I don't expect a miracle pattern for us. I just believe it is going to improve.

[snowstormcanuck]

I know you are down and I am not going to kick yah. I think we have better times ahead even for you. I don't trust the models right now (they did horrid with yesterdays/last nights storm).

By all means, go ahead. Aim for the teeth please.

[weatherpsycho]

By all means, go ahead. Aim for the teeth please.

Here you go:


How's that

[daddylonglegs]

Feb 29th record low...easy one to beat

[dmc76]

Here you go:


How's that

DAMN! Out cold

[Powerball]

Or the complete opposite of last year. We are "due" for dry torchy spring. Something along the lines of spring 2010. Yes it was niño year but look at our La niño pattern this year. We shall see.

Spring 2010 featured a rapidly developing strong La Nina, from a strong El Nino in the previous year.

That pretty much explains why Spring of 2010 (and the Summer) were consistently very warm.

[Nic]

12z GFS is strange in long range, it has what appers to be a bunch of random snow showers in OV. Then it a huge trough in the east with a Florida freeze.

Attached Files

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[69 A Porcupine]

Or the complete opposite of last year. We are "due" for dry torchy spring. Something along the lines of spring 2010. Yes it was niño year but look at our La niño pattern this year. We shall see.

[69 A Porcupine]

Before anyone gets too hung up on the models i suggest reading this post from HM..
http://www.americanw...ost__p__1317228

Just a word of warning...for all of you who don't remember...last year at this time when the AAM state was changing etc. it lead to a significant model forecast degradation during that period (late Jan-early Feb). I suspect this is likely again, so expect, at the very least, wild shifts in timing in the day 2-5 period.

[daddylonglegs]

My wife thought I pooped my pants because I had melted chocolate all over my back. Somehow my daughter had dropped a piece of dark chocolate behind me... I even ate it so my wife believed me (it was good...Trader Joe's dark chocolate)...

Other then that. Feb looks to come in like a lamb....

[Nic]

ILN

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WHAT WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED MORE CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS IS HOW
THE PATTERN EVOLVES BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AT SOME POINT ON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTH AND MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BEYOND THAT...THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALSO BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. OBVIOUSLY...GETTING TOO SPECIFIC ON
THESE DISTURBANCES IS NOT PRUDENT GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT...AND THE FACT THAT THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION COULD END
UP LOOKING QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS...IT CAN
BE SAID THAT THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE ACTIVE AND COLD
THAN THE FIRST HALF.

[daddylonglegs]

[wishforsnow]

In my experience it looks like it will be more on the warm side than cold. That has been the pattern. A few days of cold and then back above normal. Probably will end up a cold spring and early summer. That is how it has been when we had a mild winter.

[hannie]

Severe season had better be a whopper.

We do not need another severe season like last year! I'd rather a calm season like winter has been!

[Chicago WX]

12z Euro at 240 hours is something. Just look at the 500H map. Crazy looking.

[Jonger1150]

The GFS and Euro have been advertising a trough for the past several days... Right now the GFS trough is around 216 hours. The closer we get to the event the more I will buy into the model.

[Nic]

The GFS and Euro have been advertising a trough for the past several days... Right now the GFS trough is around 216 hours. The closer we get to the event the more I will buy into the model.

I have a good feeling about it this time, at this point as long as I don't get my weekly wendsday deluge of rainfall I will be happy

[AppsRunner]

At this point in the season I really don't care... I'd be just as happy with 50s and sunny than snow melting 12 hours after it stops falling. Hopefully I don't get stuck in the middle of those... rather have one end of the extreme rather than in between.

[Nic]

At this point in the season I really don't care... I'd be just as happy with 50s and sunny than snow melting 12 hours after it stops falling. Hopefully I don't get stuck in the middle of those... rather have one end of the extreme rather than in between.

I would rather have the snow that melts the next day. It is never sunny and 50 in Ohio in the winter, it always is raining or cloudy at that temperature.

[daddylonglegs]

We rarely hit 50F here from late Dec through early March...

[AppsRunner]

We rarely hit 50F here from late Dec through early March...

TOL has had 3 50+ days and Four other days above 46 in this month alone. Probably will get a few to start February as well. A measly 5.9" this month... With 4.2" falling in "one" storm in 3 days

February can't get too much worse can it?

[daddylonglegs]

6z is a torch through 2/14... Maybe not torch torch, but really warm for the first 2 weeks of Feb.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

12z looks beautiful from February 5th onwards.

[Hoosier]

12z looks beautiful from February 5th onwards.

It's going to be hard to avoid a period of winter given the movement we are seeing with some of the indices. Probably the bigger question is how long it lasts.

[SpartyOn]

One more torch and then it appears the floor drops out. Goodbye Fall.

[Thundersnow12]

RPM model showing temps near 60 south of I-88 on tuesday FWIW. Record at ORD is 56 I believe.

[Hoosier]

RPM model showing temps near 60 south of I-88 on tuesday FWIW. Record at ORD is 56 I believe.

Tuesday is still January 31 and the record is 65.

[BowMeHunter]

What a garbage pattern west of LM.. Hopefully LAF and toronto can make use of this crap advertised.

[Indystorm]

FRI-SAT...SIGNALS FOR SIG FLOW ADJUSTMENT SUPPORTS A DOWNTREND IN
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND BACK TO CLIMO...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
NUMBERS POSSIBLE BY SUN IF SUBSTANTIAL GREENLAND RIDGING DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE...RETAINED LOW CHANCE SNOW MENTION SAT GIVEN A LIKELY FLOW
ADJUSTING IMPULSE/CP FRONT.

Wow! Are we finally going to get a Greenland block this winter season> Snippet from IWX AFD for SB weekend.

[Thundersnow12]

Tuesday is still January 31 and the record is 65.

Whoops my bad, are you sure thats the record? Gino told me 56 yesterday.

[Chicago Storm]

Whoops my bad, are you sure thats the record? Gino told me 56 yesterday.

hoosier's right.

wednesday's record is 56.

[Angrysummons]

FRI-SAT...SIGNALS FOR SIG FLOW ADJUSTMENT SUPPORTS A DOWNTREND IN
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND BACK TO CLIMO...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
NUMBERS POSSIBLE BY SUN IF SUBSTANTIAL GREENLAND RIDGING DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE...RETAINED LOW CHANCE SNOW MENTION SAT GIVEN A LIKELY FLOW
ADJUSTING IMPULSE/CP FRONT.

Wow! Are we finally going to get a Greenland block this winter season> Snippet from IWX AFD for SB weekend.

Nada to Greenland block. Maybe to EPO block. Whoever wrote that needs to understand the difference in that business I suspect lol.