988 replies to this topic

[csnavywx]

+PNA with the vortex locked up over E. Siberia and Alaska is a terrible setup, or a great setup if you like repeated torches. Need to keep these SW closed lows going, as at least they bring some chances for severe down here.

[gosaints]

Warministas should enjoy the long range GFS

[Tropical]

Warministas should enjoy the long range GFS

Sure do!

[BowMeHunter]

Can't wait for those may days where its 48 in saukville and 74 in la crosse.

[daddylonglegs]

Yeah..the 18z GFS last night was a torch...

We are going to pay for this boys. Non stop clouds and rain in June?

[gosaints]

The rain is probably going to be much need though for much of the area.

[Stebo]

Severe season had better be a whopper.

This, I actually am starting to lean this way though at least in this region.

[daddylonglegs]

Big tnad outbreak this spring. Warm Gulf of Mexico...plenty of cold air will be streaming down over Saukville all May and June...the air masses will clash over southwest WI, where numerous F5 tornados will form and zoom north eastward, only dying as the plow into the snowcovered areas of SE Wisconsin in mid June

I just wonder if this snow pack is going to last all of Feb...sure is melting good today.

[Indystorm]

Severe season had better be a whopper.

Since we've already had tors up into southern IN so far this year and LaNina still in place I think you may get your wish, although certainly not like the extreme numbers from 2011. I'm supposed to be in the St. Louis area the first week of May. Should be interesting.

[weatherpsycho]

I hope the big t-storm action this spring is futher north then the past several years. Being on the extreme northern edge like the past several years gets annoying unless I am getting a snowstorm or true ice-storm out of it.

[daddylonglegs]

I'm really starting to wonder if we'll do any better then -11F. Record wise, we have until mid March... This would be one of the warmer (for low temps) winters in a while.

The number of days below 0F has also been lacking. 12Z GFS is just a blowtorch. I wouldn't doubt we see 50F again in the not too distant future, especially if most the snow gets knocked back.

[cyclone77]

The last time we had a winter with little snow like this (04-05) was followed by a very hot and dry summer. Not saying it will happen again, but I wouldn't be surprised.

[weatherpsycho]

The last time we had a winter with little snow like this (04-05) was followed by a very hot and dry summer. Not saying it will happen again, but I wouldn't be surprised.

I wish it was 04-05 here in NW Oakland County as we had well over 100" of snow that year (two 14"+ storms & several 5-8" storms).

[Chambana]

Lol we just had a hot and dry summer cyclone! Central illinois saw next to nothing rain wise for summer 2011. This winter is boring and dull, everything is dead but yet it's still warm outside, bring on spring baby!

[michsnowfreak]

The last time we had a winter with little snow like this (04-05) was followed by a very hot and dry summer. Not saying it will happen again, but I wouldn't be surprised.

2004-05 was a banner year here. Southeast Michigan saw 60-100" of snow that season, and I believe the excessive snowfall buried the east as well. Most winters see things like that, where some areas do well and others dont, but the last 2 have not. Last winter above normal snowfall covered a very large portion of the country, an anomaly as well, but not quite as widespread as this years snow deficits (so far), which run nearly across the board.

[dmc76]

2004-05 was a banner year here. Southeast Michigan saw 60-100" of snow that season, and I believe the excessive snowfall buried the east as well. Most winters see things like that, where some areas do well and others dont, but the last 2 have not. Last winter above normal snowfall covered a very large portion of the country, an anomaly as well, but not quite as widespread as this years snow deficits (so far), which run nearly across the board.

Ended up with 85" that year. Kind of was inflated by a late April event that brought 16" in 3 days. Only collected over night. If it was 3 weeks sooner, would have been over 24"

[BowMeHunter]

Hopefully its a very dull severe season here again..no need for that junk.

[SpartyOn]

Warministas should enjoy the long range GFS

Lol

[SpartyOn]

Warm and Dry "start" to Feb.

http://www.crh.noaa....=78177&source=0

[Chicago WX]

Warm and Dry Feb.

http://www.crh.noaa....=78177&source=0

You left out a word per their headline, just to be clear.

"Warm And Dry Start To February"

Not that I have high hopes for the Midwest/Lakes in February anyway...

[SpartyOn]

You left out a word per their headline, just to be clear.

"Warm And Dry Start To February"

Not that I have high hopes for the Midwest/Lakes in February anyway...

Fixed.

[Madmaxweather]

12z EURO and 00z GFS say cold comes in.... How many times have we seen this only for it to fail?

[cyclone77]

Lol we just had a hot and dry summer cyclone! Central illinois saw next to nothing rain wise for summer 2011. This winter is boring and dull, everything is dead but yet it's still warm outside, bring on spring baby!

Last summer was pretty hot too, but '05 had it beat here locally. We had a very bad drought that year up in this area. Every year/season is different though, so I have absolutely no idea what to expect later in the year.

[Hoosier]

Last summer was pretty hot too, but '05 had it beat here locally.  We had a very bad drought that year up in this area.  Every year/season is different though, so I have absolutely no idea what to expect later in the year.

Whatever is the opposite of the consensus forecast.

[SpartyOn]

Might as well watch paint dry. The 0z GFS was boring. Looks like a quasi more of the same pattern. Looks like some torching really ramps up. One exception would be around late next week. Something looks like it might go up the coast slamming NY-Bos or roll back into the apps giving the eastern lakes a fighting chance.

[Harry]

Before anyone gets too hung up on the models i suggest reading this post from HM..
http://www.americanw...ost__p__1317228

[weatherbo]

I feel like the "cold and snow is coming" train is running out of track. I think Feb will be warm with the same swings we've seen in Jan. What I do feel more confindent on is a cold and rainy Spring in the Great lakes and I detest them,and they can last well into May.

[weatherpsycho]

Well it looks like we may just have a weekend with some periods of light snow. I'll take whatever we can get. I remember that dreadful winter of 82-83 so far this winter is not that bad (heck we didn't have snow to play in until later March that year).

[SpartyOn]

I feel like the "cold and snow is coming" train is running out of track. I think Feb will be warm with the same swings we've seen in Jan. What I do feel more confindent on is a cold and rainy Spring in the Great lakes and I detest them,and they can last well into May.

Or the complete opposite of last year. We are "due" for dry torchy spring. Something along the lines of spring 2010. Yes it was niño year but look at our La niño pattern this year. We shall see.

[michsnowfreak]

Might as well watch paint dry. The 0z GFS was boring. Looks like a quasi more of the same pattern. Looks like some torching really ramps up. One exception would be around late next week. Something looks like it might go up the coast slamming NY-Bos or roll back into the apps giving the eastern lakes a fighting chance.

Meanwhile the 6z GFS is wintry with a few snowstorms and quite a bit of cold air. Whatever train you are riding (the "pattern just HAS to change" one, or the "the consistency of this crappy pattern weve had all winter is not changing"), one things for sure...the longrange models will throw everything at you.

[michsnowfreak]

Well it looks like we may just have a weekend with some periods of light snow. I'll take whatever we can get. I remember that dreadful winter of 82-83 so far this winter is not that bad (heck we didn't have snow to play in until later March that year).

This could be the 3rd weekend in a row that may be snowy/wintry (though probably not as wintry as the last 2). Last weekend we totaled 3.3" of snow Thurs-Sat and our coldest air of the winter, the weekend before we totaled 4.2" of snow on Fri-Sat. I guess if we are going to be in such a pathetic pattern, the weekend is the best time to get our flashes of winter weather!

[AppsRunner]

Fixed.

Why the quotations around "start"?

[snowstormcanuck]

+PNA/-EPO pattern means nice cold (maybe "colder" is more apposite term? PV locked up north of 60 so it doesn't really look that cold) dry troughiness over the lakes with the EC possibily cashing in on a stormier pattern. FML.

I hear suicide is painless, and it brings on many changes.

[weatherpsycho]

This could be the 3rd weekend in a row that may be snowy/wintry (though probably not as wintry as the last 2). Last weekend we totaled 3.3" of snow Thurs-Sat and our coldest air of the winter, the weekend before we totaled 4.2" of snow on Fri-Sat. I guess if we are going to be in such a pathetic pattern, the weekend is the best time to get our flashes of winter weather!

In a winter like this you take what you can get!

[Chicago WX]

+PNA/-EPO pattern means nice cold (maybe "colder" is more apposite term? PV locked up north of 60 so it doesn't really look that cold) dry troughiness over the lakes with the EC possibily cashing in on a stormier pattern. FML.

I hear suicide is painless, and it brings on many changes.

All is left to do is move on from this winter, Mike. Think good thoughts for the next one I guess.