988 replies to this topic

[Nic]

[SpartyOn]

The lemmings will die.

[Geos]

Yeah, I think February will be catch up for snowfall for a lot of areas. Gotta watch for that Greenland Block that's supposed to form around the 1st.

[SpartyOn]

Geos, on 22 January 2012 - 12:02 AM, said:

Yeah, I think February will be catch up for snowfall for a lot of areas. Gotta watch for that Greenland Block that's supposed to form around the 1st.

In all honesty I wouldn't bank on that. It might be safe to say that the overall trend will continue well into Feb and Mar. I think the 1-2 weeks of Feb will be brutal for cold but I wonder if the torch returns. Who knows.

[Stebo48858]

SpartyOn, on 22 January 2012 - 12:08 AM, said:

In all honesty I wouldn't bank on that. It might be safe to say that the overall trend will continue well into Feb and Mar. I think the 1-2 weeks of Feb will be brutal for cold but I wonder if the torch returns. Who knows.

Of course you trolling all winter wishing for severe weather wouldn't bank on wintry weather... Keep on trolling though really looks good....

[cyclone77]

These general discussion threads start earlier each month. Can't we just wait till we're actually into the next month to start the discussion? It is just "general discussion" right? Just seems kind of stupid the last 5-10 days of each month having to bounce back and forth between two general discussion threads. Maybe it's just me lol.

[BeastFromtheEast]

SpartyOn, on 22 January 2012 - 12:08 AM, said:

In all honesty I wouldn't bank on that. It might be safe to say that the overall trend will continue well into Feb and Mar. I think the 1-2 weeks of Feb will be brutal for cold but I wonder if the torch returns. Who knows.

[Stebo48858]

cyclone77, on 22 January 2012 - 12:31 AM, said:

These general discussion threads start earlier each month. Can't we just wait till we're actually into the next month to start the discussion? It is just "general discussion" right? Just seems kind of stupid the last 5-10 days of each month having to bounce back and forth between two general discussion threads. Maybe it's just me lol.

Yeah normally these are only started this early if the pattern is active and something of significance is down the road.

[Alek]

cyclone77, on 22 January 2012 - 12:31 AM, said:

These general discussion threads start earlier each month. Can't we just wait till we're actually into the next month to start the discussion? It is just "general discussion" right? Just seems kind of stupid the last 5-10 days of each month having to bounce back and forth between two general discussion threads. Maybe it's just me lol.

It's not just you.

[Mottster]

cyclone77, on 22 January 2012 - 12:31 AM, said:

These general discussion threads start earlier each month. Can't we just wait till we're actually into the next month to start the discussion? It is just "general discussion" right? Just seems kind of stupid the last 5-10 days of each month having to bounce back and forth between two general discussion threads. Maybe it's just me lol.

Agreed.

[Chicago Storm]

ecmwf weeklies are fairly mild from feb 1-20th.

[BeastFromtheEast]

Chicago Storm, on 23 January 2012 - 02:30 PM, said:

ecmwf weeklies are fairly mild from feb 1-20th.

How were those weeklies looking like for this past wintry week a few weeks back?

[Chicago Storm]

BeastFromtheEast, on 23 January 2012 - 02:31 PM, said:

And how were those weeklies looking like for this past wintry week a few weeks back?

Chicago Storm, on 6 January 2012 - 03:12 PM, said:

Most sig/long lasting cold shot is Jan. 16-20th.

[BeastFromtheEast]

Chicago Storm, on 23 January 2012 - 02:36 PM, said:

Nice... Oh well.. Hope to squeak out 20 Inches or so in Feb regardless of temps..

[Hoosier]

FWIW, Don S thinks that February is likely to see more blocking than December/January. Not that that would be hard to do. Although he is still thinking a milder than average outcome.

[SpartyOn]

wxhstn74, on 22 January 2012 - 04:59 PM, said:

My feelings on this messed up winter ;-)

http://weatherhistor...t-has-been.html

[buckeye]

Hoosier, on 23 January 2012 - 02:40 PM, said:

FWIW, Don S thinks that February is likely to see more blocking than December/January. Not that that would be hard to do. Although he is still thinking a milder than average outcome.

whatever it is worth I guarantee you it's more than whatever DT, LC, or JB are thinking.

[Chicago WX]

Chicago Storm, on 23 January 2012 - 02:30 PM, said:

ecmwf weeklies are fairly mild from feb 1-20th.

The weeklies from last Thursday?

Which warmwantista to believe? Though it's not like Anderson is painting a cold interpretation either.

http://www.accuweath...el-forect/60522

[Hoosier]

buckeye, on 23 January 2012 - 02:51 PM, said:

whatever it is worth I guarantee you it's more than whatever DT, LC, or JB are thinking.

Don has been doing well. I think we'll have our snow chances even if it disappears 3 days later.

[weatherpsycho]

Hoosier, on 23 January 2012 - 03:07 PM, said:

Don has been doing well. I think we'll have our snow chances even if it disappears 3 days later.

Yeah that's what I am thinking too. There is just no 'HOLD' in this pattern.

Like I did with the Jan 12/13 storm I just might have to plan another mini-trip to get another major event.

[Chicago WX]

Hoosier, on 23 January 2012 - 03:07 PM, said:

Don has been doing well. I think we'll have our snow chances even if it disappears 3 days later.

Of course we'll have snow chances in February. But it's not a sustainable snow cover winter. I think people need to accept that and be happy with what they get...and for as long as they keep it. I'm absolutely thrilled with what we've got in an otherwise warm winter. It is what it is.

[Chicago Storm]

Chicago WX, on 23 January 2012 - 03:04 PM, said:

The weeklies from last Thursday?

Which warmwantista to believe? Though it's not like Anderson is painting a cold interpretation either.

http://www.accuweath...el-forect/60522

[BowMeHunter]

Chicago WX, on 23 January 2012 - 03:04 PM, said:

The weeklies from last Thursday?

Which warmwantista to believe? Though it's not like Anderson is painting a cold interpretation either.

http://www.accuweath...el-forect/60522

sweet.. still in the game for <20"

[Chicago WX]

BowMeHunter, on 23 January 2012 - 04:06 PM, said:

sweet.. still in the game for <20"

lol, good luck.

[Stebo48858]

I'll take mild with more blocking, wouldn't bother me a bit if we got a 6" storm and it melted 2 days later only to repeat again later.

[hm8]

Stebo48858, on 23 January 2012 - 09:33 PM, said:

I'll take mild with more blocking, wouldn't bother me a bit if we got a 6" storm and it melted 2 days later only to repeat again later.

Agreed fully. As far as snowcover goes, this winter is pretty much unsaveable already. I just really want to see at least one solid winter storm here.

[michsnowfreak]

hm8, on 24 January 2012 - 12:09 AM, said:

Agreed fully. As far as snowcover goes, this winter is pretty much unsaveable already. I just really want to see at least one solid winter storm here.

Im sure we will get at least one. As you said, snowcover is unsaveable at this point. Certainly tons of time left for some nice winter storms, but what I enjoy about winter (cold/snow/snowcover) has been so scarce its made this season very unenjoyable (coming on the heels of last winter is certainly no help either lol). Plenty of time left to save the season total (I have very high confidence it will not make the top 20 least snowy winters at DTW), but not to save the "winter feel" of the season so to speak.

Knowing that nearly everyone in the country is in the same boat wrt snow drought doesnt make me feel any better, but it does make me think SOMEONE gets smacked in Feb. Just hope its us!

[hm8]

michsnowfreak, on 24 January 2012 - 02:56 PM, said:

Knowing that nearly everyone in the country is in the same boat wrt snow drought doesnt make me feel any better,

Heh, it sure makes me feel better. If the east cost were getting bombs and and northern plains were getting blizzards while we got rain I'm sure I'd be in a fouler mood lol

[daddylonglegs]

NWS in La Crosse had this up yesterday:

Quote

During 16 of the 20 (80 percent) La Niñas since 1949, temperatures have average below normal in the second half of meteorological winter. However the latter half of this winter looks like it will be warmer than normal. This is a result of the Arctic Oscillation returning to its positive phase (like it was for much of December and early January). When this occurs, the polar jet stream usually remains north of 60 degrees north latitude. This keeps the arctic air bottled up near the Arctic Circle. The image to the right is the average position of the high (H) and low (L) pressure areas at 18,000 feet from October 21, 2011 through January 18, 2012. It provides a great example of what is normally observed during a positive phase Arctic Oscillation. The red arrows indicate the average position of the polar jet stream during this time frame.

In addition to the Arctic Oscillation, enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. When this occurs, much of North America is usually warmer-than-normal.
The images below are from the Climate Prediction Center's Coupled Forecast System version 2 model (a climate model which takes in account sea surface temperatures, ice, soil temperatures, and carbon dioxide when making its forecast). They show the North American temperature anomaly forecasts from late January into mid-February. The brown areas indicate temperatures which are greater than 6 degrees above normal, and the blue areas are greater than 6 degrees below normal. If these forecasts verify, this would be only the second La Niña since 1949 to have all three winter months average above normal. The only other La Niña in which this occurred was 1999-2000

http://www.crh.noaa....=77831&source=0


I'm not sure if this means anything, but looking at the top 10 coldest and warmest Feb(for LaCrosse)...I compared the January that year...

Top 10 coldest Feb
Jan


Top 10 warmest Feb
Jan


And here is Jan to date:


Roughly the 1st week of Feb:


Conclusion based on some really crappy research: Feb will end above normal.

[michsnowfreak]

hm8, on 24 January 2012 - 08:34 PM, said:

Heh, it sure makes me feel better. If the east cost were getting bombs and and northern plains were getting blizzards while we got rain I'm sure I'd be in a fouler mood lol

Well, I suppose everyone suffering is better company to be in than being in a screwhole while everyone else is doing well, but when it comes down to it, it just plain sucks, period. :/

[Angrysummons]

February looks to continue the same pattern. Lack of upstream blocking on both sides creates for a underwhelming troughs and lack of cold air. Sun angle will begin to bake soon as well. I blame the EPO. Its persistant + phase really messed this winter up considering there were good signs the Atlantic was going to take the season off.

[weatherpsycho]

MOTS

Thank God for the X-Box Kinects & Wii !

[Chicago WX]

Angrysummons, on 25 January 2012 - 06:37 PM, said:

February looks to continue the same pattern. Lack of upstream blocking on both sides creates for a underwhelming troughs and lack of cold air. Sun angle will begin to bake soon as well. I blame the EPO. Its persistant + phase really messed this winter up considering there were good signs the Atlantic was going to take the season off.

+PNA looks solid on the ensembles, of course depends on how far west, or east, or north it sets up...but lack of Atlantic blocking will make for much of the same in sensible weather for a good chunk of the region seemingly. Have to hope for a miracle...though I think there will be another 10 day period in February where wintry fun can be found. Better make due.

[csnavywx]

Severe season had better be a whopper.

[BowMeHunter]

+pna sucks.. maybe toronto can make a nice comeback with it