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Medium Range Thread


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#386
am19psu

  • Bendy Tree Season

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The s/w that eventually spins up the Gulf Low is in Southern California right now.

#387
Harbourton

  • Harbourton

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The s/w that eventually spins up the Gulf Low is in Southern California right now.


Thanks, I like to follow the sat. pics.

#388
phlwx

  • 9,098 posts
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oooo a bl issue coastal at hr 177 on the GFS last night.

The more impressive feature on the models last night was that deep low in the Northern Plains at hr 216+ on the Euro from last night. That looks fun to drive in a semi through.

#389
Rainshadow

  • Phase 6 Is For Lovers

  • 3,447 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

oooo a bl issue coastal at hr 177 on the GFS last night.

The more impressive feature on the models last night was that deep low in the Northern Plains at hr 216+ on the Euro from last night. That looks fun to drive in a semi through.


We have had so many issues this winter that our issues have had issues.

Today's 12z gfs run sure looks like that its in mode conflict with the mjo and teleconnection indices.

#390
phlwx

  • 9,098 posts
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Could hit 60-65 on Friday ahead of the front...pretty potent storm that will blow into Canada. Might be a changeover to snow north/west of I-80 and I-81 post-storm.

#391
LMolineuxLM1

  • Philly Storm Nut. Skywarn Spotter Mt Holly NWS. Go Flyers and Ph

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Could hit 60-65 on Friday ahead of the front...pretty potent storm that will blow into Canada. Might be a changeover to snow north/west of I-80 and I-81 post-storm.

Eventually we might get a line of thunderstorms to be filmed. I am looking forward to the thunderstorms this year.

#392
phlwx

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Eventually we might get a line of thunderstorms to be filmed. I am looking forward to the thunderstorms this year.


You have a bit of a chance on Friday...reality probably shapes up to be a thunderless squall line but there could be some thunder ahead of the front depending on how warm we get and how the dynamics are.

#393
Grothar

  • 852 posts
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You have a bit of a chance on Friday...reality probably shapes up to be a thunderless squall line but there could be some thunder ahead of the front depending on how warm we get and how the dynamics are.


This is the best post so far in Feb. Cannot wait for the thunderstorm too. Hard to believe I am so anxious but I believe it is because we just have not had any storm event- dry too

#394
famartin

  • 10,839 posts
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GEM has a little wave of low pressure bringing some snow early next week... of course the GFS and EC both show you guys in the warm sector as a low passes to the north.

#395
Feb

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GEM has a little wave of low pressure bringing some snow early next week... of course the GFS and EC both show you guys in the warm sector as a low passes to the north.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Euro also has a nice Bermuda High setting up Day 10. Might be Adam's triple digit highs to start of March with. :sizzle:

#396
phlwx

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GFS MOS says 65 is possible on Friday. :devilsmiley:

#397
famartin

  • 10,839 posts
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GFS MOS says 65 is possible on Friday. :devilsmiley:


Hell, if MOS says 65 then maybe 70 is possible <cue Adam's blow torch>

#398
Feb

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Hell, if MOS says 65 then maybe 70 is possible <cue Adam's blow torch>

I'm punting the rest of this winter. I'm looking forward to a nice spring. A very quiet, boring tropical season with nothing to track. High heat and unbearable humidity for summer. A fall that is just a continuation of summer and a third year nina. :axe:

#399
dryslotted

  • Audaces fortuna iuvat

  • 3,343 posts
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I'm punting the rest of this winter. I'm looking forward to a nice spring. A very quiet, boring tropical season with nothing to track. High heat and unbearable humidity for summer. A fall that is just a continuation of summer and a third year nina. :axe:


<laughs nervously> now you're just trying to scare me...Seriously though, are you reading/hearing/looking at anything that speaks to a brutal summer? I kind of thought that we might be setting up for a blah, mild summer. (sorry for the long range post)...

#400
phlwx

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MOS of 65 on Thursday...850's near 10 C with SW flow.....tooooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrccccccccccchhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh city,

#401
LMolineuxLM1

  • Philly Storm Nut. Skywarn Spotter Mt Holly NWS. Go Flyers and Ph

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MOS of 65 on Thursday...850's near 10 C with SW flow.....tooooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrccccccccccchhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh city,

Looks like thunderstorms also?

#402
Rainshadow

  • Phase 6 Is For Lovers

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MOS of 65 on Thursday...850's near 10 C with SW flow.....tooooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrccccccccccchhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh city,


We really could reach the 70s, wouldn't need to be violating the laws of physics to get there.

#403
fsu_wxgirl

  • 332 posts
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I'm not seeing much in the way of thunderstorms...there is very little CAPE and the Lifted Index doesn't really indicate thunderstorms either.

Looks like thunderstorms also?



#404
phlwx

  • 9,098 posts
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We really could reach the 70s, wouldn't need to be violating the laws of physics to get there.


wouldn't surprise me if Hammonton, Millville, Pottstown...the torchy spots around the region...did it. Gotta think the river screws PHL unless the trajectory is more west than southwest.

#405
CoastalWx

  • 69,213 posts
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An actual storm going west of us! This may be the first strong storm going west of us since December.

#406
am19psu

  • Bendy Tree Season

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  • Joined November 11, 2010

An actual storm going west of us! This may be the first strong storm going west of us since December.

Pfffft, didn't you see TNE's thread? It's going to be an East Coast bomb.

#407
GD0815

  • 914 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

Pfffft, didn't you see TNE's thread? It's going to be an East Coast bomb.


who /what is TNE?

#408
phlwx

  • 9,098 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

who /what is TNE?


http://www.americanw...torm-potential/

enjoy!

(PS -- Euro next week brings +12 850's N ahead of another lakes cutter)

#409
am19psu

  • Bendy Tree Season

  • 7,496 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

http://www.americanw...torm-potential/

enjoy!

(PS -- Euro next week brings +12 850's N ahead of another lakes cutter)

Moves a sub-980 low towards Buffalo. Winds should be fun on the backside if that verifies.

#410
Grothar

  • 852 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

I'm not seeing much in the way of thunderstorms...there is very little CAPE and the Lifted Index doesn't really indicate thunderstorms either.


Excellent point but we wishful think like the last storm coming north

#411
Rainshadow

  • Phase 6 Is For Lovers

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who /what is TNE?


This person has had a long and established posting career telling meteorologists (lately our own HM) that they don't know much.

#412
CoastalWx

  • 69,213 posts
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Pfffft, didn't you see TNE's thread? It's going to be an East Coast bomb.


LOL, I think he's done stuff like that on eastern before.

Anyways, those west winds on the euro would be fun, if that happened.

#413
MGorse

  • 1,525 posts
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This person has had a long and established posting career telling meteorologists (lately our own HM) that they don't know much.


I wonder if he has ever told JB that as well.

#414
tombo82685

  • 12,608 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

I wonder if he has ever told JB that as well.


with the way how hes going maybe he should listen to TNE

#415
Quakertown needs snow

  • Powder Day, Fernie B.C. 2007

  • 8,918 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Moves a sub-980 low towards Buffalo. Winds should be fun on the backside if that verifies.

wind chills in 50's?

#416
Parsley

  • 8,871 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

wouldn't surprise me if Hammonton, Millville, Pottstown...the torchy spots around the region...did it. Gotta think the river screws PHL unless the trajectory is more west than southwest.


Yeah, just saw the Euro.....two nice warm shots. Friday should be interesting depending on cloud cover/precip. in the area. That could be one toasty day.

#417
tombo82685

  • 12,608 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Yeah, just saw the Euro.....two nice warm shots. Friday should be interesting depending on cloud cover/precip. in the area. That could be one toasty day.


i would think thursday would have the better shot. Per euro, looks like rain comes in in the morning. Granted fri might be warmer, but thursday may be the better day with temps in the 60s

#418
Parsley

  • 8,871 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

i would think thursday would have the better shot. Per euro, looks like rain comes in in the morning. Granted fri might be warmer, but thursday may be the better day with temps in the 60s


Yeah, timing may lean toward Thursday (as both 12z GFS and Euro show). Either way I'm not going complain.

In general I'm just liking the 2 warm shots it advertises before and after the weekend.

#419
famartin

  • 10,839 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

IIRC, TNE stands for The New Era... lol

#420
Chris L

  • 2,368 posts
  • Joined November 16, 2010

who /what is TNE?


TNE is: :facepalm:




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