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Medium Range Thread
Started By
tombo82685
, 19 Jan 2012 12:41 PM
#1
Posted 19 January 2012 - 12:41 PM
0z euro ens shows a nice west based -nao starting to build in the longer range combined with the potential for -epo, could make for an interesting start of february...Discuss
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#2
Posted 19 January 2012 - 12:49 PM
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Powder Day, Fernie B.C. 2007
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- 7,634 posts
- Joined November 12, 2010
- Location:West Rockhill Township, PA.
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JB seems to be un-canceling winter for Feb., next?
#3
Posted 19 January 2012 - 12:54 PM
JB seems to be un-canceling winter for Feb., next?
So, get the lawnmower ready then, and leave the snowblower in its lonely, dark corner of the garage?
#4
Posted 19 January 2012 - 12:55 PM
JB seems to be un-canceling winter for Feb., next?
cue the drudge siren for this piece of breaking news...JB goes cold...film at 11!
#5
Posted 19 January 2012 - 02:40 PM
How long until Adam shows up with his torch? Weeklies come out tonight so i'm sure he will be posting shortly.
#6
Posted 19 January 2012 - 03:20 PM
Much to my consternation, I'm waiting for the Week 3-4 flip to cold on tonight's weeklies. Sorry I haven't been around much this week... running numbers instead of forecasting weather.How long until Adam shows up with his torch? Weeklies come out tonight so i'm sure he will be posting shortly.
#7
Posted 19 January 2012 - 03:39 PM
Do you really think they will flip? Didn't they actually get warmer on Monday for weeks 3 and 4? It sounds like running numbers isn't something you enjoy which i wouldn't blame you if you didn't.Much to my consternation, I'm waiting for the Week 3-4 flip to cold on tonight's weeklies. Sorry I haven't been around much this week... running numbers instead of forecasting weather.
#8
Posted 19 January 2012 - 04:05 PM
Yeah. Even if they don't, I suspect the period around Feb 5-10 or so - and maybe longer depending on the NAO - will be cooler than normal at PHL.Do you really think they will flip? Didn't they actually get warmer on Monday for weeks 3 and 4? It sounds like running numbers isn't something you enjoy which i wouldn't blame you if you didn't.
I love running numbers. I hate troubleshooting when the numbers don't run right.
#10
Posted 19 January 2012 - 07:26 PM
Week 1 is still a torch (Jan 23-29). Week 2 is cooling, maybe +3 at PHL, with some hints of a -NAO. Week 3 is weird and not what I was expecting - it looks like a +PNA with a total torch coast to coast in Canada, but temps closer to normal in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Week 4 sets up a standard +PNA/-NAO configuration with cool anomalies in the Eastern 1/3 of the country.weeklies?
#11
Posted 19 January 2012 - 11:34 PM
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Week 1 is still a torch (Jan 23-29). Week 2 is cooling, maybe +3 at PHL, with some hints of a -NAO. Week 3 is weird and not what I was expecting - it looks like a +PNA with a total torch coast to coast in Canada, but temps closer to normal in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Week 4 sets up a standard +PNA/-NAO configuration with cool anomalies in the Eastern 1/3 of the country.
LOL thats the best run of the year
#13
Posted 20 January 2012 - 06:33 AM
0z euro continues to build. Heights into the Davis straights,.however, it seems like its no match for the -PNA . What a waste!
http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNA216.gif
http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNA216.gif
#14
Posted 21 January 2012 - 11:56 AM
12z GFS says after late this week it gets pretty chilly through the rest of the run. A couple of opportunities thrown in for snow also. No arctic cold or big nor'easters but chilly and wintry, something we haven't had on a consistent basis this winter.
#15
Posted 21 January 2012 - 12:29 PM
12z GFS says after late this week it gets pretty chilly through the rest of the run. A couple of opportunities thrown in for snow also. No arctic cold or big nor'easters but chilly and wintry, something we haven't had on a consistent basis this winter.
Gorgeous PNA ridge on that 12z GFS.. Too bad the atl doesn't look favorable. Still, it's pretty nice looming and will have to keep an eye towards the end of jan.
#16
Posted 21 January 2012 - 02:08 PM
Gorgeous PNA ridge on that 12z GFS.. Too bad the atl doesn't look favorable. Still, it's pretty nice looming and will have to keep an eye towards the end of jan.
On the plus side the gfs has had more skill outlooking the pna than nao this winter (the nao and pna outlooks have both been too negative). The NAEFS weekly chances of being warmer than average are also trending downward.
#17
Posted 21 January 2012 - 03:41 PM
Can anyone summize the 12Z Euro? The 1/2" snow so far this winter ain't cutting it!
#18
Posted 21 January 2012 - 03:48 PM
Alright between 132 and 144 hrs the 12 Z ECM has another storm system to effect the region. Temperatures are between 30-35 thru out PA..540 line is across Northern PA 138 it sinks to the south but still N slightly of ABE...and all of SE PA is south of the 540 line as well as all of NJ is south of that 540 line..850s are at freezing or slightly below..So right now this looks like this could be the next threat of winter precipitation..Unfortunately because of the 540 line we could be talking about an ice event/ or snow event..Can anyone summize the 12Z Euro? The 1/2" snow so far this winter ain't cutting it!
There is also a storm at 180 hrs + but that verbatim would be rain...
#19
Posted 21 January 2012 - 03:50 PM
What i have read in the other forums is there are a couple of threats but they are marginal at best at this time. DT is honking about a low that brings us rain and the Ohio Valley snow, which means good news for us. When DT calls for an inland track, the storms usually end up off the coast.Can anyone summize the 12Z Euro? The 1/2" snow so far this winter ain't cutting it!
#20
Posted 21 January 2012 - 04:42 PM
Great, any idea on timing? Would we be looking at starting in the morning or later? Going to Bayonne NJ for a 10 day cruise and leaving on Friday. Could hamper our travel plans.
#21
Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:26 PM
Great, any idea on timing? Would we be looking at starting in the morning or later? Going to Bayonne NJ for a 10 day cruise and leaving on Friday. Could hamper our travel plans.
GFS has it Thursday day, the timing on these events have been closer to the gfs than the euro.
#22
Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:32 PM
GFS has it Thursday day, the timing on these events have been closer to the gfs than the euro.
Thanks, I can live with that as we'll be driving up on Friday morning, Just would hope I don't miss the "big one" until I get back
#23
Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:48 PM
Thanks guys for the update. I am hoping the atlantic can be more favorable toward the end of the month into feb. We'll see.
#24
Posted 22 January 2012 - 07:39 AM
some timing differences with the late week storm. Euro is the more progressive model (surprisingly?) as it zips an Apps/I-81 runner through Thursday night/Friday AM...0z GFS brings a weak piece of energy through Thursday, main course on Saturday as energy is held back.
#25
Posted 22 January 2012 - 09:50 AM
Looks to me like we better enjoy the snow we have as it doesn't look good for anymore anytime soon.
Slightly above normal this week, but certainly not the torch previously advertised, followed by a late
week storm tracking west of us bringing a decent dose of rain followed by some transient average
cold. Models have seemingly backed off on any significant blocking in early Feb which continues the
theme of this winter.
Average temps rounding the bottom of the valley and heading up starting late this week.
Slightly above normal this week, but certainly not the torch previously advertised, followed by a late
week storm tracking west of us bringing a decent dose of rain followed by some transient average
cold. Models have seemingly backed off on any significant blocking in early Feb which continues the
theme of this winter.
Average temps rounding the bottom of the valley and heading up starting late this week.
#26
Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:33 AM
Not what the 12z GFS has to say about it.Looks to me like we better enjoy the snow we have as it doesn't look good for anymore anytime soon.
Slightly above normal this week, but certainly not the torch previously advertised, followed by a late
week storm tracking west of us bringing a decent dose of rain followed by some transient average
cold. Models have seemingly backed off on any significant blocking in early Feb which continues the
theme of this winter.
Average temps rounding the bottom of the valley and heading up starting late this week.
#27
Posted 22 January 2012 - 12:07 PM
I think the GFS is predicting a move toward MJO phase 7/8 by the beginning of February, which may offer help, but for now that's heavy on the speculation and who knows what every other atmospheric variable is going to do by then. I'm pretty much grasping at straws here--I was reading through some of the old threads from 09/10 on Eastern and it got me nostalgic. I won't stop craving those big stemwinders, as it were.
#28
Posted 22 January 2012 - 01:50 PM
http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html
All the global models are now focusing on a storm next weekend. GFS is suppressed along with the Nogaps. GGEM is a coastal hugger/just inland track while the Euro track looks good, i'm not sure about temperatures. A lot of question marks about next Saturday at this point though some kind of storm looks likely.
All the global models are now focusing on a storm next weekend. GFS is suppressed along with the Nogaps. GGEM is a coastal hugger/just inland track while the Euro track looks good, i'm not sure about temperatures. A lot of question marks about next Saturday at this point though some kind of storm looks likely.
#29
Posted 22 January 2012 - 01:56 PM
http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html
All the global models are now focusing on a storm next weekend. GFS is suppressed along with the Nogaps. GGEM is a coastal hugger/just inland track while the Euro track looks good, i'm not sure about temperatures. A lot of question marks about next Saturday at this point though some kind of storm looks likely.
EC temps are marginal. It'd be a slop fest verbatim. Cold air isn't really available at the start.
#30
Posted 22 January 2012 - 02:00 PM
Yes, that is what i thought. However it was a big change from it's oz run. I think there will be a lot of uncertainty (what's new, right!) this week.EC temps are marginal. It'd be a slop fest verbatim. Cold air isn't really available at the start.
#31
Posted 22 January 2012 - 02:08 PM
the euro looks like a good shot of snow in the lanc to abe corridor...closer in looks like its rain to maybe snow to i95. The thicknesses are pretty high so their seems to be a marginal setup like ray said.
#32
Posted 22 January 2012 - 02:12 PM
EC temps are marginal. It'd be a slop fest verbatim. Cold air isn't really available at the start.
From the coastal plain perspective its better to have the cold air in place at the start (like yesterday) then to bank on it coming before the end to save the day.
#33
Posted 22 January 2012 - 02:20 PM
the euro looks like a good shot of snow in the lanc to abe corridor...closer in looks like its rain to maybe snow to i95. The thicknesses are pretty high so their seems to be a marginal setup like ray said.
The snowfall map posted in the NYC forum has snow down to PHL, but the caution is that it's a real thread the needle. Hope the snow event started some good luck.
#34
Posted 22 January 2012 - 02:21 PM
I like the sounds of that, but will be in the Caribbean at that time, as long as it isn't the biggest snow of the season, of course that would be my luck.the euro looks like a good shot of snow in the lanc to abe corridor...closer in looks like its rain to maybe snow to i95. The thicknesses are pretty high so their seems to be a marginal setup like ray said.
#35
Posted 22 January 2012 - 02:22 PM
The snowfall map posted in the NYC forum has snow down to PHL, but the caution is that it's a real thread the needle. Hope the snow event started some good luck.
yea the wunderground map brings like 2-4 into the immediate burbs to the city.
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